1/29 - 6pm - SEVERE WEATHER & SNOW

Okay, I'm in total severe weather mode here folks. Here's the deal:

1. We're under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH now, which could get upgraded to a tornado watch later.
2. Also under a WIND ADVISORY until 6am tomorrow, gusts up to 45mph outside of storms, way more inside storms.
3. Tornado warnings are being issued in E. Illinois right now for several counties, if that trend continues we might see that situation tonight at around 9 - 10pm.
4. The temperature will drop 30 degrees once this front passes late tonight. STREETS WILL FLASH FREEZE, along with a quick burst of snow before daybreak (< 1 inch).
   

So, be on the look out at around 9pm this evening.

In the longer range, we have what looks to be a snowstorm in the cards. The GFS and NAM are really poo-pooing this storm with just an inch or so, but the other models are going all out on this one. If the low tracks through E. KY, then we'll get maybe 1-3, if we can get it to the Appalachians, which most models suggest except GFS and NAM, then we're in for a biggin'! I'll say well over 5 inches if we can get that to happen, based on what I've heard (I can't actually get most of these because you have to pay for them monthly, but I hear what they're doing from other meteorologists). I was able to look at the 12z Canadian model though, and it's definitely putting us in that heavy snow area.

Add onto that fire the HPC's latest Snow Accumulation forecast for Friday:


Holy smokes! That's a MODERATE RISK for more that 4 INCHES for us! And we're just miles away from a slight risk for over 8! With that said, our local NWS office is still putting out a 1 inch or so prediction for this storm, but they are using the NAM/GFS combo. I bet that forecast will change though. Speaking of which, AccuWeather is calling for 1.7" and the Weather Channel says just some snow showers. I bet they're using the GFS/NAM combo as well, which would explain that.

This is reminding me of the Dec. 2004 storm in ways you couldn't imagine. Before that storm, we had about 2-3 days notice and even then the models were still in vast disagreement. We also had the same stakes as well: A lot of rain or a lot of snow. We'll see how this works out though. If we still look like over 5 inches tomorrow, then I'll start giving marching orders to prepare for this thing (milk, bread, etc.). Stay calm for now though, because this will change considerably before the snow (or rain) starts falling.

Stay safe!