Sorry about the long pause in blog/web action there, just too many things to do.
For about the last four days the GFS has shown a good bit of snow over us around the 13-14th of November. It was fairly consistent with the fact that we would see some sort of snow and freezing cold air, but now its wavering a little. As we get closer to the actual proposed storm day I think the model will become confused at times. This is because we're in a period of HUGE swings right now, which can make forecasting a bear. Might I also mention that we could see 70 degrees by early next week?
Here's the deal, I've been tracking this 13-14th thing in the midst of my busyness and you simply can't discount a long stretch of loose consistency on any long range model. Many forecasts have even gone with the recent two or three runs of the GFS and are now saying 50 degrees for those days.
I say NO. I will say lower 40's and no more! The GFS is so confused right now that I think it is contradicting itself. There have been three RADICALLY different proposed solutions in the past 24 hours for this system. The past few days have seen a general consistency with an anomaly here or there. I'm going to vie for consistency here. Yes, I know we're still talking long term here, but I think that when a model is sticking to its guns and then goes nuts, you need to stay with your forecast until another (or the same) general consistency is back.
This absolutely does not mean I'm calling for any snowstorm event here; I'm just saying that, according to previous GFS runs, that freezing temperatures and the possibility of light to moderate snow is possible on the 13th-14th. I'll stay with this until I see the GFS get its story straight. It seems that the 18z run came back to its senses a bit, but its still not back to where it was before. If the 0z is even closer to the previous consistent solutions, I'll feel much better.
I might do a forecast video tomorrow since I'm off. It would be up just before the late afternoon hours.
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