11/29 - 9pm - No Snow, Weekend Schedule

It's been long enough and I'm ready to make my final decision on this weekend's storm system. There will be no snow, but we'll see some moderate rains. According to the QPF we'll see about a half an inch:



There is a small (and I do mean small) chance for some flurries on the backside of this system Monday morning. It's interesting how this storm went from a Kentucky snowstorm to a Michigan blizzard as the week went on. That tells you how accurate the models are a week out. Until then we'll 50 with sunny skies tomorrow and then we'll drop into the 30's on Monday after the storm passes.

Here's the situation for this weekend. I just completed a revamp of all the video graphics on my video forecast. The problem is, I've got a test to take on Saturday morning. So I'll either get a new forecast video out on Saturday afternoon or Sunday. I think you'll really like the new graphics I made and the new music I picked out.

Don't forget that the Ryan Weather Store is open 24/7 at www.cafepress.com/ryanweather.
There are some great Christmas gifts in there, with t-shirts as low as $11 and stickers at $5!

11/28 - 6pm - Rain... For Now...

We're still on the rain train for this weekend's storm and that's what I'm going with until one of the models flips out (which will happen I bet). I'm thinking that we'll get some sort of ice or snow changeover at some point in this storm, but it will be short lived. With all of the models taking this storm north, I can't say too much else. I do want to issue this one word of caution though, the storm of December 2004 was forecast to be all rain just a couple days ahead of the storm. That was before all the computer models went nuts and suddenly brought it way south. If you remember, the salt trucks couldn't get out because they didn't have enough warning due to the wackiness with the forecast. So just stay tuned even though it looks very bleak for any snow at this point.

Until then we'll see clear conditions (little chance for some flurries tonight) and temperatures in the 40's and 50's until after the weekend, when we tank into the 30's.

11/27 - 6:30pm - Snow or Rain?

The forecast is pretty much unchanged from yesterday's post. We still have a chance for flurries or snow showers on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The more pressing issue is this weekend. There are currently two very different solutions being proposed at the moment and I'm pulling my hair out trying to figure out which one is correct. The first solution is that we have nearly 100% snow for this weekend, although its been a few hours since any forecast model has shown this. The second and more likely solution is a good shot of heavy rain this weekend with some light snow as the precipitation exits our area on Sunday night. Since that's what all the computer models are going with, that's what I'm going to stick with for the moment. I'm still a little skeptical because the low that this is associated with this would have to dive into a mass of cold air, which would normally deflect it or block it. This has happened before though and isn't too rare. Late last night we had a huge rash of models suggest a snowstorm for us this weekend with multiple inches of snow. This is still possible because the models are notorious for switching back and forth between solutions, even just hours from a storm. So like I said yesterday, don't get your hopes up.

11/26 - 5pm - Rain, Rain, and uh... More Rain!

Today alone we've gotten over an inch of rain in Louisville. Luckily its over now and we'll see sunnier skies tomorrow with highs in the upper 40's. We'll warm up Wednesday to the mid 50's with increasing chances of rain throughout the day. During the overnight hours from Wednesday to Thursday I think we could get a quick hit of some snow as temperatures drop into the lower 30's, but I think there will be no accumulation (at most a dusting for a couple hours).

The real fun starts on Saturday when we get a better shot for some snow. During the overnight hours we could see rain changing over to snow for nearly the entire overnight period as some forecast models have been suggesting. This could continue all day Sunday into that night as well. Here's my big problem right now, there are conflicting forecast models for this storm. The GFS forecast model has been wanting to drag the snow further south, whereas the European forecast model wants to push it north. If you look at other weather websites you'll see that they have 40's and rain during this weekend because they are taking the Euro's model and applying a little bit of skepticism as well. The National Weather Service is betting on snow and lower 30's for Sunday though, and they are siding with the GFS.

My forecast is a middle of the road solution with snow on Saturday and Sunday nights but a period of rain Sunday afternoon. I'm just very skeptical that the arctic air will push this far south given the strong ridge it will have to displace. On the contrary, the GFS has been battin' a thousand for the recent storms in the Northeast and Midwest... I'll have a better grip on this tomorrow and a firm solution by Friday. DO NOT GET YOUR HOPES UP FOR A SNOWSTORM. Yet.

11/25 - 8pm - Welcome to the new Ryan Weather

The Ryan Weather website has just finished going through massive re branding and redesign. With a new logo, new graphics, and renewed purpose, I'm ready to give you the most accurate forecasts this winter. You can now access the website at www.ryanweather.org . While you're there check out the Ryan Weather Store (www.cafepress.com/ryanweather), where you can purchase Ryan Weather logo t-shirts, stickers, hats, and much much more!


Now on to the weather...

While I was out of town I stayed up with the GFS models and saw some interesting things for next week. It's waffling around right now, but I think the general consensus is that we will see some downright cold weather by the first week of December with a chance for some snow.

In the shorter range, we could see some of that white stuff on Thursday as the temperature plummets. At the maximum some places could receive a dusting, but I think the most realistic scenario is just some pockets of flurries and snow showers. Our rain for today has also been impressive, with almost a third of an inch in SE Jefferson County. The rain will continue after midnight and through the daytime hours tomorrow...

11/20 - 7:30pm - From Storms to Snow

Incredible! Over 70 degrees in the middle of November, even better, the week of Thanksgiving! All great things come to an end as you know, hence the SPC has put us under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather tomorrow. We'll see storms with gusty wind and falling temperatures. Temperatures will fall so far by Thanksgiving Day (Thurs.) that the rain will change over to some snow showers (no need for milk and bread) during the afternoon and nighttime hours. No worries though, we'll see temperatures recover into the mid 50's by this weekend with more rain possible.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there will be no video forecast or 7-day forecast issued this weekend. Blog posts will also be suspended until early next week.

Speaking of the Ryan Weather website, there are HUGE changes in store for it. Every bit of the web site's graphics are being revamped right now and there will even be a new Ryan Weather logo. I absolutely can't wait to show you what I've got in store! Coming soon to a computer near you.

11/17 - 12:30pm - Forecast Video

I finally decided to go with a chance of snow showers (no accumulation) on Thanksgiving morning...

11/15 - 7pm - Flurries!

For the first time this season, someone in my chemistry class looked out the window and shouted "Snow!!!" This caught me off guard and made my day considering how gloomy it was outside. The GFS had hinted at some renegade flurries, but I just disregarded them. Turns out it was right!

While out temperatures are cold right now, we'll be warming into the 50's and 60's by next week. All this is leading up to a possibly harsh cool down just after Thanksgiving that the GFS has been hinting at since last week. Whether or not we get frozen precip is still in question, but we'll at least get some rain.

A tornado occurred near London, KY yesterday... Click here for more.

11/13 - 5pm - Yucky Looking Day

What a nasty looking day outside. It feels like I'm living in England with this light drizzle and 60 degree weather!

Another issue of note is our Thanksgiving forecast, which looks cold right now. I can't make a decision about whether or not we'll see any form of precipitation because the models are simply going nuts right now. That whole weekend after Thanksgiving looks very active for much of the country, but its hard to pinpoint where exactly it will be active. More on this later...

11/10 - 12pm - Forecast Video

Hey folks! You can now get to the Ryan Weather website at http://www.ryanweather.org.

11/7 - 7pm - Backing off of the Flurries...

I'm now convinced that we're going to be much warmer than 40's for mid next week. The GFS has finally stabilized a little and I think the freezing temperatures and the snow flurries will stay well north of here. I don't think we'll go much below 50 if any next week.

Otherwise we'll be recovering from our cold snap and rise to 70 by week's end with some rain on Monday and Tuesday.

11/6 - 2:40pm - New Forecast Video

Here's a special Tuesday forecast video, since one wasn't made on Saturday...

11/5 - 7pm - Craziness in the Weather World!

Sorry about the long pause in blog/web action there, just too many things to do.

For about the last four days the GFS has shown a good bit of snow over us around the 13-14th of November. It was fairly consistent with the fact that we would see some sort of snow and freezing cold air, but now its wavering a little. As we get closer to the actual proposed storm day I think the model will become confused at times. This is because we're in a period of HUGE swings right now, which can make forecasting a bear. Might I also mention that we could see 70 degrees by early next week?

Here's the deal, I've been tracking this 13-14th thing in the midst of my busyness and you simply can't discount a long stretch of loose consistency on any long range model. Many forecasts have even gone with the recent two or three runs of the GFS and are now saying 50 degrees for those days.

I say NO. I will say lower 40's and no more! The GFS is so confused right now that I think it is contradicting itself. There have been three RADICALLY different proposed solutions in the past 24 hours for this system. The past few days have seen a general consistency with an anomaly here or there. I'm going to vie for consistency here. Yes, I know we're still talking long term here, but I think that when a model is sticking to its guns and then goes nuts, you need to stay with your forecast until another (or the same) general consistency is back.

This absolutely does not mean I'm calling for any snowstorm event here; I'm just saying that, according to previous GFS runs, that freezing temperatures and the possibility of light to moderate snow is possible on the 13th-14th. I'll stay with this until I see the GFS get its story straight. It seems that the 18z run came back to its senses a bit, but its still not back to where it was before. If the 0z is even closer to the previous consistent solutions, I'll feel much better.

I might do a forecast video tomorrow since I'm off. It would be up just before the late afternoon hours.

11/1 - 9pm - That's What I Thought!

I hope that everyone had an enjoyable Halloween! The weather was nice and there was indeed a great amount of trick-or-treaters this year.

Now on to more serious matters, like a HUGE cool down that I've been yelling about for the last few days. It seems that the GFS is keeping its promise of this event, with each consecutive run producing the same general cool down around the 13th of November (which is consequently just after my birthday on the 11th!). I've been saying that there would be some type of frozen precipitation around that time and we're still on track for at least some flurries.

Finally, there won't be a video forecast on Saturday due to some scheduled things I have to do.