9/20 - 9pm - Quick "Almost Jerry" Update

So Jerry isn't quite Jerry yet. It's just below the threshold for a tropical (or subtropical) cyclone and it just crossed the Florida Panhandle. The Louisiana landfall solution (Cat 1 hurricane or tropical storm) is looking more and more likely. Look at these computer model plots:



Notice how close to Louisiana we get with the two leftward plots. Just a few miles difference and you're in New Orleans. The GFS is just about the same as these two models on the chart above (ignore the rightmost track, I just think that's too far north). The GFDL is also in general agreement with those models too. So I think we're looking at a landfall between Gulfport, MS and New Orleans, LA. Obviously the strength is still questionable, but I say a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane. If this storm even gives New Orleans an indirect blow, I would be worried about flooding. The levies are still a mess after Katrina and I've read news reports that say they are not even close to being ready yet. If this storm does hit New Orleans it will be interesting to see how the levies react. Since it isn't a whopper storm it would be good for the Army Corps of Engineers to get data from to see how much they need to build them back up to withstand stronger storms. I just hope we don't get another surprise like Humberto, that would not be good for the Gulf Coast right now.