9/19 - 9:30pm - Jerry. Paging Tropical Storm Jerry.

Oh yes, this is real folks. Yesterday that low twirling around the east coast of FL was still deciding where to go. It just made a crucial turn towards the west, signaling a little bit of alarm. Once up to subtropical storm status it will be named Jerry. I won't hold this one back: the GFS says New Orleans or darn close to it. I know I have heavily criticized the GFS on tropical forecasting, even just recently. But this time I agree with it somewhat. The reason I say somewhat is because there are a couple other scenarios, but the GFS is being consistent (for at least 2 runs!). The second scenario is a Corpus Christi/Houston scenario if the high (which is making us dry right now) in the south stays its ground. The GFS doesn't like this at all.

Another scenario even then, but far less likely, is a Mexico solution that I saw possible. I don't like it though because at some point it will turn north. Now, what should the Gulf Coast prepare for? A Cat 3 hurricane. What will probably happen? A gusty tropical storm or Cat 1 hurricane. Here's where it is now (#1)...



The reason I say prepare for a Cat 3 is because the water near the coast is HOT!!! Its the same water that nearly gave us a heart attack when Humberto unexpectedly strengthened into a hurricane. Yes, the models and whatnot are shooting for a Cat 1-ish hurricane, but I ain't buying it until we see what happens after the system's crossing of Florida. This area is too volatile to not prompt an early warning for.

I think you'll see this on the news tomorrow, because this could be bad for the Gulf Coast.

Locally, we're hot and dry until Tuesday. Its very odd that a drought like this is persisting well into September. I just think we're saving up our rain credits for conversion into snow during the winter (or rather I wish we were doing that, for a snow day's sake).