9/2 - 11pm - Oh I Blew it on Felix

Yeah folks... Sorry about that one. I said on the forecast video that Hurricane Felix wouldn't get past a Cat 1 or 2. Now its a Category 5 storm near Jamaica (Cat 2 to 5 in less than 24hrs, holy smokes folks). Yesterday the projections didn't really get past a Cat 3 at maximum. Then I woke up to a Cat 4 monster this morning. That made me feel sheepish...

No matter, here's the current track:



I'm a little worried about that track right now. It plows Felix right through the Yucatan and emerges as a hurricane on the other side, in the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is a mess as I said before so I can't use that for guidance. The rest of the models show a re-entry into Mexico after the Yucatan hit, but after that flare up and surprise overnight, I'm still skeptical. Otherwise, I'm not sure what to tell you until this storm clears the Yucatan.

As for here, It's really dry. I mowed the lawn today and created the most sizable dust cloud ever seen to man. Not to mention that it all got into my lungs. With ground that dry, its hard to negotiate a cool down in the air. The ground only makes heating worse, which makes drought conditions worsen, and then the circular pattern begins. We could see rain next weekend, but even then its hard pressed.