1/29 - 5:45pm - Serious Severe Weather Concerns Tonight

Latest Severe Weather Updates

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A severe weather setup that we see normally in the springtime is about to unfold on this late January night across a large expanse of the Southeast. While not "unprecedented" or "once-in-a-lifetime", this outbreak is going to impact quite a few people and it's important that everyone have what they need to be prepared and safe. This post is mainly for folks in North Mississippi and West Tennessee, but you can figure out pretty well how you'll be affected if you're not in these areas by some of the maps and information below. Everyone needs to be aware of what's going on because this will be happening at a very bad time of night when even the night owls are asleep.

Fast Facts

A MODERATE Risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the overnight hours in West Tennessee and most of North Mississippi. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all on the table for these areas as storms move through. Even though places like the Golden Triangle in Mississippi are just outside of the Moderate Risk area I would treat this as if you were in it because these storms are going to be very, very strong still as they move through this region. Please, please, please have a weather radio or smartphone app that's armed and ready to alert you if a Tornado Warning is issued for your location tonight. This will be hitting when most people are asleep so it's a very dangerous situation.

Timing - North MS and West TN

8pm - Midnight - Small chance for some isolated storms. These would carry a tornado, wind, and hail threat.

Midnight - 2am - Slightly better chance for isolated storms, small line of storms may try to form ahead of main line.

2am - 7am - Main line of severe thunderstorms moves through. This will affect everyone. Tornadoes, severe damaging winds, and hail are a good bet during this time.

Discussion

A line of storms stretches from the Great Lakes to Texas right now and will continue to move eastward through the evening. A few reports of severe weather have come in already from this but the main show will be overnight as this line of storms encounters a more rich environment for severe weather.

The main storm mode for tonight will be a squall line of storms with embedded rotation in portions of it (AKA what's termed a QLCS). Supercell storms will be possible ahead of the main line of storms too and could easily produce tornadoes if they develop. Tornadoes in QLCS lines of storms like the one we'll have tonight are more difficult to identify on radar since they're embedded within the line. While not as strong as supercell tornadoes, QLCS tornadoes can be strong and cause massive damage in the right environment.

While directional shear, which is needed to produce tornadoes, isn't very good for this event, the speed shear or tendency for winds to increase in speed with height will be very good. But, the directional shear may just be enough to cause problems. When you combine helicity (caused by shear) with instability in a formula you get what's called the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). This, in my mind, is a good determinant of tornado ingredients in an environment. The NAM model has increased levels of the EHI throughout West Tennessee and Mississippi tonight as this squall line is moving through so these QLCS tornadoes may have some kick to them if they develop. Not good news at all.


Also, since winds at 850 mb (about 5,000 feet) will be howling it will not take much for any part of this line of storms to pull these winds down to the surface and create straight-line wind damage. I wouldn't be surprised if folks affected by the worst of these winds thought they were hit by a tornado. I'm hearing the word Derecho being thrown around a bit with regard to how this system will develop tonight. That's certainly a possibility with this system but I think it's a relatively small chance.

One more thing to mention, and this is not the least important at all, is the fact that moisture and warm air continues to stream in from the south in advance of this system. When the dry line that's triggering these storms hits this richer air tonight you'll know. The whole line of storms should really begin to light up by then. Having air this warm and moist in January is never a good thing because Mother Nature intends to correct it in a violent way.

Follow me on Twitter and my Facebook page for the latest updates tonight!

7/26 - 1:55pm - Kentuckiana Severe Weather Update

Kentuckiana is right on the edge of what could be a significant severe weather outbreak this evening. Nothing demonstrates this better than the Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook, which puts us in a Slight Risk but has a 30% severe wind risk running right through the center of Louisville. The reason for this is that faster winds aloft are most prevalent to our north and east so more of a risk area (a Moderate Risk) is needed up there. These winds have the potential to power a large line or cluster of wind-driven storms that could possibly become a derecho just to our north if it sustains itself long enough.

A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has gone up for areas northeast of Louisville but not including the city. This was needed because severe storms are already affecting areas near Cleveland right now and more will be forming in the near term across Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. I suspect a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued for the Louisville area at some point this evening since storms will come through a little later than areas to our north.

Storm timing in Kentuckiana should be after 5pm this evening. The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh model has storms rolling through the Louisville Metro area at around 7pm but this may vary a bit because this will be highly dependant on where storms fire along outflow boundaries and other surface features. The HRRR suggests that these will be either a broken or continuous line of storms which makes sense given that winds both aloft and near the surface will be from a westerly direction. This also means this could be a wind-driven line of storms so wind damage potential is relatively high here if storms get severe enough. Large hail will be a threat from any of the strongest storms. There may be more than one round of storms this evening in the area through 2 or 3 am since the cold front will not be passing through until that time. This might be a good time to secure your trash cans or any loose articles you have outside your house so that they don't end up in your neighbor's yard...

8/15 - 6pm - Severe Weather Craziness Back Home

Radar image from NWS Louisville

Saturday's severe weather in Louisville put many LG&E customers without power as winds exceeding 60 mph hit the city. At its peak the storm caused over 128,000 customers to lose power in Louisville, but that number has now dwindled down to 23,000. On radar it appears the storm may have bowed outward a bit due to the strong winds pushing ahead of it, and downbursts were likely the cause of much of the heavy damage in central parts of the city. Folks in Southeastern Jefferson County near the Jeffersontown, Middletown, Fisherville, and even down to Bullitt County saw a bit of a scary sight as the leading edge of the storm produced an arcus or shelf cloud. While not dangerous on its own this cloud often marks the leading edge of the gust front in a thunderstorm, which can carry damaging winds. Check out my photo from my back yard below:

With some schools still lacking power, Jefferson County Public Schools has cancelled classes tomorrow after already cancelling the first day of school for the academic year today. I'm not sure if JCPS has ever canceled the first day of school before, but this is certainly not the first time they've had to cancel due to power outages (wind storm of September '08 and major ice storm of January '09 are prime examples). A couple more nice weather days in Louisville will help with power restoration and tree clearing efforts.

Mississippi State Weather

I'm back at Mississippi State University for the semester and classes begin on Wednesday. The humidity been much lower in Starkville today since the passage of a cold front yesterday. Unfortunately reality will gradually return this week as temperatures surge back into the 90's and humidity increases as return flow transports Gulf moisture northward again. Daily small afternoon storm chances will return on Thursday or so.

Return to TV in Jackson, TN

If you're in Jackson, TN or the surrounding West Tennessee region, you'll want to tune into WBBJ ABC 7 this Saturday morning at 6am as I make my return to the Good Morning West Tennessee Saturday newscast. It's been about four months since my last show there due to my month-long storm chasing trip and time back home in Louisville, so I'm itching to get back to what I love doing most. We'll be bringing you weather updates every 10 minutes along with the morning's top news stories and events that you need to know about to get your weekend started!

5/25 - 6am CDT - Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak Yesterday

Rain-wrapped tornado near Piedmont and El Reno, OK

A tornado outbreak unfolded as forecast in Oklahoma yesterday, but unfortunately many of the tornadoes were shrouded in rain as these storms were overly laden with moisture. This not only made them nearly impossible to see, but also very dangerous to chase. We were right in front of but couldn't see the tornado that destroyed parts of El Reno, OK and in fact chased that cell from it's formation in Eakly, OK earlier in the afternoon. I'd venture to say that we were less than two miles from that violent tornado, but all that we could see was a giant grey mess in the distance.

Supercell forming near Eakly, Oklahoma

Later on after a trip through Oklahoma City, we took shelter in Moore, OK because of hail and a tornado passing over I-35 just in front of us as we went southbound. What we didn't know was that the twister took a northward jog and caused damage just a few hundred yards in front of us. Scary, no? It wasn't a strong tornado, but it toppled some power lines and threw some small debris into the interstate roadway. After that tornado passed by we went to survey some damage in Moore and Newcastle since the storms were quickly evolving into a linear system and moving into the heavy vegetation east of Oklahoma City. Check out the video below for all the action from yesterday:

2/6 - 5pm - Aftermath

What a storm system last night. Heavy damage in the Memphis, TN area, not to mention in our own state as well. I've never seen such a bad winter outbreak like this before. It's just awful that this system claimed 50 or more lives. That's simply unacceptable with the technology we have today to forecast and warn people of tornadoes. Of course it saddens us all when things like this happen.

We were issued a tornado warning here in Jefferson County at about 12:40am last night. I remember my weather radio going off and scaring me to death and then turning on the TV to see what was going on. The radar looked nasty so I went to the basement right as the straight line winds came through. That's about all I remember because I was half asleep while doing this.

Luckily it wasn't too bad in Louisville, but areas just south of here received a moderate amount of damage. The worst I saw here was a tree limb on a car near U of L.

The next few days look cloudy with 40's and 50's with a stray mid-30 degree high on Sunday. Possibly a chance for a little snow by early next week.