5/28 - 10:30am MDT - A New Week Starts in Denver

We're on the road to Denver this morning to meet with our guests on tour 5 this afternoon. Yesterday we finished up tour 4, which ran 2,369 miles through 6 states. Check out the image below for a map of the route we took last week through Tornado Alley:


Tomorrow we begin chasing again, and our target area could be Northeast Colorado or Eastern South Dakota. I'm inclined to think that we'll go or Northeastern Colorado if conditions look good in the morning because of the proximity to our base in Denver. On Monday we'll probably be in Nebraska for what looks to be a supercell event that will eventually turn into a line of storms in the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted a Slight Risk area on their outlook for Monday, so we'll have to take a closer look at the forecast this evening and tomorrow.

5/27 - 10am MDT - Denver, Amarillo, Denver

The next 36 hours are going to be a whirlwind. We stayed in Denver last night after trying to chase an upslope storm setup in Eastern Colorado that didn't materialize thanks to cloud cover and possibly marginal southeast winds. We're now on our way to Amarillo to drop off our tour guests from tour 4 so they can leave on their flights tomorrow morning. We'll be leaving too... back to Denver again so that we can receive our new guests on tour 5 and begin another week of storm chasing. So, 8 hours to Amarillo today and 8 hours back to Denver tomorrow. We drove 414 miles yesterday in search of severe weather, and it's a shame that it didn't work out.


Next week's weather looks promising for chasing. Sunday will most likely be a day to setup for Monday's chase in the Eastern North Plains, but there's a chance something could fire in Nebraska while we're on our way. Monday already has a risk area outlined by the SPC in Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Tuesday will probably be a down day as a bit of a trough builds in. The rest of the week will most likely be a chase in the North Plains as well, but it's a bit too far away to make an accurate guess at where exactly we'll be. Looks like we may be lacking upper-level support in many areas after Tuesday, but we'll see how things shape up.

5/21 - 3pm CDT - Back in Amarillo to Prepare for Next Week

We're in Amarillo today getting ready for another tour group to arrive. We washed and vacuumed the van (it was bad from all that Kansas dust), so we're ready for another week of storm chasing. We'll have two vehicles this week filled with excited storm chasing tour guests from all over the world, so it should be a good run.

SPC Severe Probability - Mon

Things are looking quite interesting next week, but we're meeting each risk of severe weather with tempered optimism after the problems that plagued our storms this week. Sunday looks to be a travel/sightseeing day because the risk of severe weather is too far east for us to travel from Amarillo and the terrain/vegetation in that part of the country presents even greater difficulty. Monday, on the other hand, looks pretty good. A surface low near the OK/TX panhandles should move in and deepen considerably throughout Monday, setting the stage for severe storms to erupt in West Oklahoma and Southwest Kansas. We'll likely play the Southwest Kansas component of this risk because of the east winds hitting the up-sloping geography with plenty of moisture in tow. Should be a decent tornado threat with this should it all pan out as the models indicate. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 30% Slight Risk for severe weather in this area due to these factors.

SPC Severe Probability - Tues

Tuesday will be a very similar setup, just translated 150 miles east. The SPC has already outlined a risk area for Tuesday on their 4-8 day outlook, so they're confident this far out that something may happen. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday may not be great chase days due to a small bit of ridging building into the Plains, but there's a possibility that a trough may move in soon enough on Thursday to where we may be able to chase in the North Plains of Nebraska and South Dakota. I sense a long drive back to Amarillo on Friday if that happens. The models are indicating that the severe weather setup may shift to the North Plains just in time for us to switch to our base in Denver next weekend. Let's hope so!

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As always, you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates on our chase. Storm Chasing Adventure Tours also has a new Facebook page that you can "Like" to receive updates and photos from the group.

5/14 - 2pm CDT - Gearing Up for Another Week of Storm Chasing

We're in Amarillo, TX today to prepare for another week of storm chasing with a new set of tour guests. The van has been washed and the oil changed, and all the guides and drivers are fully rested for what Mother Nature will bring in the coming days. While getting things done in Amarillo today, we passed by a bunch of semi tractor-trailers at a truck stop in town carrying blades for the giant power-producing wind turbines in farms around the Plains. Look how huge one of these blades is!

Next week's severe weather risk areas are still a bit fuzzy as we'll be under a ridge here in the Plains for at least the next few days. Once a trough begins moving through on Tuesday into Wednesday, we should see severe weather chances begin to increase. Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly even Friday are all looking like good chase days due to upper-air support and moisture streaming back into the region. Even the Storm Prediction Center is mum on details about next week because of all the uncertainty regarding where exactly this will set up:

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN ACROSS TX INTO OK AND PERHAPS EVEN KS BY MID-LATE WEEK AS LARGE SCALE HIGH LEVEL FLOW RELUCTANTLY FORCES RIDGE TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WITH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ATOP RETREATING SFC ANTICYCLONE. WHILE A FEW SEVERE TSTMS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS PATTERN THERE IS SOME RELUCTANCE TO INTRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF RIDGE DISPLACEMENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION.

5/13 - 12:15am - National Weather Center / Amarillo

We visited the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma this morning. This facility located on the University of Oklahoma's campus is home to the Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory, and other branches of the National Weather Service.


We're making our way back to Amarillo, Texas so that our current tour guests will be able to fly out tomorrow morning. There are no storms to chase today because of the aforementioned low risk of severe weather across the Plains for the next few days. Luckily, things will be picking up around the middle of next week!

5/7 - 4pm CDT- Hello From Amarillo, TX!

I'm all settled in here at our hotel in Amarillo after a flying in from Louisville. Tonight our tour guests on tour 2 will gather for orientation at a conference room here in the hotel and then we'll go out for a nice dinner before a week of gas station burritos and fast food while chasing.

As a tradition during each tour that departs from Amarillo, the restaurant we'll be eating at is the world-famous Big Texan Steak Ranch. This place is the real deal here in the Texas Panhandle if you're looking for a taste of the stereotypical "Wild West". At the center of the two-floor establishment is an elevated table where diners can try their hand at eating a 72oz steak (with side dishes) within an hour's time. Besides being the spotlight for all the diners at the restaurant, each participant's attempt at eating this behemoth is streamed live online via a video camera mounted on the second floor. It's a fun place and it certainly starts each tour with a lighthearted ice-breaker for everyone.

Tomorrow's target will be a spit decision. Our target area will most likely be somewhere near Wichita Falls, Texas, which is just a few hours drive from Amarillo, or Northern Nebraska (maybe Kansas?). The SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather posted for West Oklahoma/North Central Texas and Northern Nebraska/Southern South Dakota, but we'll see how everything sets up in the morning before deciding on a specific target area.

The NAM model has a good setup for the Texas/Oklahoma border near Wichita Falls right now with high CAPEs, serviceable wind shear, and decent low-level moisture. The LCLs (Lifted Condensation Level - height of cloud bases) are a little high for my taste at 3000 to 6000ft, which could limit tornado potential in any supercell that fires up. The other chase target in Northern Nebraska/Southern South Dakota (or Northern Kansas based on some of the newest model output) seems to have most of the characteristics of the Texas/Oklahoma one, but LCLs will be slightly lower and shear values could be higher. Those two components alone lead credence to a higher tornado threat, but there's concern that moisture from Texas won't make it up there in time for the advertised severe weather development (see right image - 850mb dew points at 0z Monday). We'll see how it looks in the morning before a final judgement is made!

Be sure to keep up with my updates on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest information while we're chasing tomorrow!

5/8 - 3pm CDT - Just Arrived in Amarillo, TX!

Hello from Amarillo, Texas! It's only 62 degrees right now, making my choice of travel attire (shorts and a t-shirt) seem a little off. Luckily, it will warm up here tomorrow as we drive out to start chasing.

This evening the arriving tour 2 group will meet for orientation. We'll go over the basics of storm chasing, safety precautions, and a few housekeeping items. After orientation we'll pile in our vehicles and head to our traditional first dinner of the tour at The Big Texan. This place is quite the tourist attraction, with signs in the airport and around town advertising their "Free 72 oz. Steak" (if eaten within one hour). I think I'll stay with my 8 oz. sirloin, thank you.

Now, on to more important things. We'll probably end up chasing tomorrow somewhere in Central or West Texas based on what the computer models are saying right now. No particular parameter looks very impressive, so we may not see any storms to write home about. We'll see what the situation looks like in the morning.

Monday is when the action cranks up. A severe weather outbreak has been forecast for Oklahoma, Southern Kansas, and North Texas for quite a few days now and things certainly aren't backing down now with the Storm Prediction Center issuing a 30% risk for severe weather for the region. The NAM and GFS computer models have CAPE values well over 3000 J/kg in Central Oklahoma, which is just phenomenal for supercell development. Bulk shear values are topping 70 kt and dewpoints will be in the upper 60's throughout the area, so neither of those are limiting factors. The NAM is also indicating EHI (Energy Helicity Index - combines helicity and instablity) values over 6 in West Central Oklahoma. Values over 5 are considered to be good indicators for strong EF4 and EF5 tornadoes, so there's much excitement in the storm chasing community right now over this outbreak. I do want to caution that a few storms that will be exiting Eastern Oklahoma and Kansas on Monday morning, which could contaminate the atmosphere a little bit and limit heating. Here's what the Storm Prediction Center has to say about that:

BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/OK OWING TO A ROBUST WAA REGIME WITHIN A BROAD 45-50 KT SSWLY LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROVE PROBLEMATIC FOR A NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTN AND THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A MDT RISK.

On a brighter note, they also had this to say about the good shear I mentioned earlier:

FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE COMPLETE VERTICAL PROFILE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF HISTORIC STRONG TORNADIC CASES.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

That's some pretty strong wording there coming from the SPC. I think we're going to have a wild day of chasing on Monday if things come together as anticipated.