11/26 - 7pm - Now We're on to Something!

I wrote yesterday that the models were not in good agreement with each other for a potential system late weekend into early next week. The GFS had a strange looking trough and the DGEX didn't know what to do. Fast forward 27 hours and look what happened:



Yikes! The GFS and DGEX both agree on a snowstorm solution for Monday, with Louisville, Evansville, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis right in the crosshairs. The NAM doesn't go out far enough in time to see the storm, but the right components are on the model for development 84 hours from now. I don't even want to talk about accumulations yet... the models have varied wildly over the last 24 hours. What I will say is that I've seen a general increase in moisture in the models since yesterday, so keep your fingers crossed!

Obviously I want to express a word of caution before you grab your snow cream recipes and snow shovels. This storm is still 5 days out and much can change in that time period. If the low pressure associated with this system decides to go east of the Appalachians, that could mean less snow. If the low goes any further west of where its forecast to go now, we could see rain and mixed precipitation. BUT... the fact that model agreement is fairly decent at the moment makes me more optimistic that we could be dealing with a snowstorm here Sunday night into Monday.

I'll be out of town for the Thanksgiving weekend (whew... not going to miss the potential storm), but I'll have internet access while I'm gone. If anything happens with the models, I'll be sure to post. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!