5/26 - 10am MDT - Off to SW Kansas and Oklahoma

We just got done with breakfast in Goodland, KS and we're off to our target area in the SW Kansas and North Oklahoma area. The SPC says there is a MODERATE risk for severe weather down there, but we're not as optimistic as they are. Instability, moisture, and temperatures look good, but we're having problems with shear. The good part in all of this though is that any storm that does form before 5pm-ish tonight will be isolated, supercelluar, and strong. Since there's a good cap today (layer of warm air above the surface that "bottles up" potential storm development from rising surface air) we think that we'll avoid the nasty mess that happened yesterday when all the super cells merged together.

Time is of the essence because the isolated super cells we're looking for will eventually give way to an MCS (which I talked about yesterday) and destroy most of the tornadic potential. This will happen after 4 or 5pm tonight, so I think we'll be able to work in 3 or 4 good hours of chasing if these super cells do manifest themselves. Even then our tornado potential is pretty limited, so we'll be looking for good scenery in these storms more than for tornadoes.

I just wanted to tell all of the family members of those on this trip who are reading my blog that everyone is doing just fine. We've had a great time looking at awesome storms, diving into the SUVs when those storms get too close, and seeing all the great scenery here in the Plains!