We started off the day with the models giving us all snow for Saturday, and a good chunk of it at that. As the afternoon progressed though, a small amount of warming on the models started chipping away at our possible snow totals. This same scenario happened yesterday as well.
I'll put it out there right now that we could see over 6 inches of snow if we can get all snow here. If we start with a little rain, I think we could still get a 3-5 shot. But if some of the other models are correct, we could see less than an inch. That's a big gradient!
Since this kind of warm-up on the models occurred yesterday then receded this morning, I'm skeptical. The HPC is putting us in a SLIGHT risk for over 4 inches of snow, but the MODERATE risk is just a few miles north of us. This all means that I can't tell you what will happen right now.
My best guess now is that we'll get a small bit of rain for an hour or so on Friday night and then turn to snow. Accumulations would be around 3-5 inches I would think. I was worried that the storm was definitely going north until the NAM pulled it WAY south again. (EDIT: After looking around at the other models more, I realized that this NAM is on the fritz, disregard this model run) Even though it was too far south for us to get snow, it at least balances out some of the warmer models. So really, just hold on until Friday when components start coming together and then we'll see what will happen. Somebody around here is going to get quite a snowstorm...
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