Yeah, that's because we are going to see a massive increase in tropical activity. The current GFS has a hurricane hitting the Florida coast on September 13th, and many more storms in line behind it. The minute I saw the model I saw it proper to call this blog entry "Parade of Hurricanes". Here's what I mean:
If you look behind the Florida storm on the left, you'll see three purple blotches in the Atlantic. Those are Tropical Depressions/Storms that have potential to become hurricanes. The issue here is not whether we will see another hurricane. The issue is where the next one will landfall. It is too early to take this model without a grain of salt. Even though this model run shows four storms we may only get two or three and the timing could be off. I'm not yet predicting a Florida landfall because this model is 16 days out. I can't even tell you what I'm going to be doing in 16 days so I sure as heck can't tell you where a hurricane will go.
Do not be alarmed yet, I'm just issuing a tropical **watch** right now. That means to pay attention over the next two weeks because this tropical season could get real nasty, real quick. I wouldn't be surprised if we near some records this year for storm frequency and intensity, and based on this model I think we could easily do that.
On the home front, we're getting ready to cool off a bit. Tomorrow will be the last day in the 90's for at least a week. I think we can all collectively say "Hooray!" to that. We have a chance of storms on Thursday, but I'm hard pressed to see any significant rain anytime soon. Maybe one of these tropical systems gives us some rain soon!
1 comment:
Tonight's 00z run isn't as bullish. Granted the GFS still shows signs of activity in the tropics. Heck, it's September right? Also, it would be mightly tough to get US landfalling hurricanes with our persistant upper high still in place through the next 2 weeks. Any storms that do form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles will go due west... Just like Dean.
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