Well it happened. Just like Accuweather, the NHC, and everyone else on the planet said would happen, TD 4 is now Tropical Storm Dean. Here's the interesting part:
The NHC says this thing will be a hurricane in 5 days.
Now there are two tracks that everyone seems to be advertising for this thing: a spinout into the Atlantic or a Gulf Coast hurricane. The NHC and myself are both sticking with the GFS solution: the Gulf Coast. Why? Well a large ridge is going to slide off the east coast, north of this thing, and prohibit any northward movement in the open Atlantic. But once the ridge slides out to sea, the hurricane will be in the Gulf. Because this ridge is sliding off, the hurricane shoot north and hit the coast. Who's coast you ask? I don't know yet. Pretty much anywhere from Texas to Florida and a chance for even the Carolinas too.
All I have to say is that based on the historical tracks of storms in this region that various agencies have put out, it looks like the Gulf Coast or no coast at all. Since this ridge is in place, one would believe the former will occur. Just sit tight though because this may be an emotional wild ride as this track is decided. I have to make this disclaimer right now: New Orleans has a chance of getting this one. The latest GFS model had the worst possible situation for New Orleans, but I don't think its necessary to show that when the GFS is all over the place with this thing. Everyone needs to be alert with this storm because I think it may be THE storm if the right elements come together this week.
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