5/14 - 6:30pm - Strong (Severe?) Storms for Tomorrow

I said in my forecast video on Sunday that there would be the potential for some storms on Tuesday. What I didn't have yet was an answer to the question: Will they be severe? Well the answer lies with timing and instability.

Let's look at issue one, which is timing. The NAM model sides with a forecast of these storms blasting through here just after midnight:



I won't even mention the GFS because I don't like the precipitation values that are being presented on it. Do I agree with this NAM model run? Yes and no. Yes, I think the issue of strength of these storms is accurately presented in the NAM. No, because the timing on the NAM has been jumpy with other systems and I think we can only get a better time on these storms by waiting for at least another model run. Remember: The earlier in the afternoon the storm occurs here, the greater chance we will see severe weather.

On to issue two, instability:




The Cape model is lit up like a Christmas tree, so no problem on getting instability in here for these storms. We just have to have the cold front come in just as we get into the peak of the heating in the afternoon. As the NAM has it, that won't happen.

So, my final prediction here is that we will see some late night storms tomorrow night with only a limited amount of severe weather present. I think wind will be the only thing we need to worry about. I think it was wise for the SPC to place us under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather until the timing issue can be hammered out.

If storms do reach severe limits in Louisville before 10pm tomorrow night, I will be on my live severe weather coverage box just to the right of the blog. I don't think I'll need to do any severe weather video tomorrow because this is a very small chance for severe weather, but check back tomorrow afternoon and I will update you on the status of these storms on my blog.