Monday, April 2, 2007

4/2 - 7:30pm - TURN ON YOUR WEATHER RADIOS

The title says it all. We are under the gun for some isolated tornadoes between Louisville and Evansville. There will also be golf ball size hail or greater during the evening hours. Here's how it will all play out:
  • Two lines of T-storms will move through tomorrow, the first being the possible tornado maker in the afternoon.
  • The second line will be a nasty wind/rain/hail maker I think, with damage possible.
The SPC still has a 30% chance for severe weather, which isn't great at the moment. I think that this will change tomorrow morning as more data on instability and such comes in. This also depends on the amount of sunlight during the day tomorrow too, so keep watch on that.

I think the SPC's 30% chance is pinning down our local NWS office because it doesn't make sense to issue a Hazardous Weather Outlook with just that. There is a chance things could calm a little in the models, but for now we are seeing an increase in all the factors that would contribute to a tornado/storm outbreak.

Now to the tornado side of this. I think the greatest chance for tornadoes will be in the afternoon after about 3pm. This is when the supercells will form ahead of the front in the wet, warm air. Within these supercells there will be a couple tornadoes to look out for. I cannot tell right now if the supercells will be widespread or isolated, but there will be some. I don't think this is a tornado OUTBREAK, but still heed the warning here.

I'll update tomorrow when things get gnarly!!!

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