This is only a slight risk for us for severe weather on Tuesday evening. BUT this is almost a 30% risk, which may go up as the week wears on. Usually, the "Moderate" and the rare "High" areas are not drawn in until the day before the storm, so we could still be in the running for a "Moderate" chance of severe weather, although its very uncertain at this point.
The Cape model shows nearly the same shape of instability as the severe weather map above. Interestingly, the Cape model calmed down slightly from yesterday, but it moved a pretty good chunk of instability over Louisville. Yesterday we were on the edge of some moderate instability, but today we are in the middle of the "reds" of the model. So this means probably some instability somewhere in between moderate and high.
Oh yeah, today is your last day on a weekend for a few weeks that temperatures are in the 70's. With this huge front I've been harping about on Tuesday, are temperatures in the 40's and 50's. We should pull out of this by the end of the month.
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