After some mid morning sprinkles, we look pretty dry for the rest of the day. Our high will struggle to reach 80, especially with all the cloud cover. That's pretty good for the last day of June!
It looks like Independence Day will be a little cooler than previously thought. Some of the new model runs coming out suggest that the high will only top out in the low 80's. The National Weather Service says it will be 83. It will be nice temperature wise, but there is a chance for some storms. There is a possibility of severe weather, so I'll keep working on this as we get closer. Hopefully it turns out to be nothing.
Don't forget, WAVE-TV's first HD broadcast happens tonight at 5pm. To read more about WAVE's transition to HD, click here. It will be a treat to see Louisville's first High Definition weather forecast, almost comparable to Louisville's first color TV weather forecast (although I wasn't around for that one).
Monday, June 30, 2008
Sunday, June 29, 2008
6/29 - 10:45am - Should've Stuck With My Instinct, WAVE-TV HD!
Well, as we saw yesterday, clouds in the morning and storms the evening before really do put a damper on things. I mentioned that our severe threat was low earlier yesterday, especially in my video forecast. When the SPC put out a MODERATE Risk for us, I looked again and saw a possibility that things could get fired up. True, instability did increase a bit, but it was already too late. Mark that one down in the personal book of forecasting.
A big announcement (at least for techno-junkies) was made on John Belski's blog this morning:
We'll see a few scattered storms around here today, with highs only topping out in the low 80's. As I said in the video forecast yesterday, there will be a gradual increase in temperatures this week with some minor storm chances in there.
A big announcement (at least for techno-junkies) was made on John Belski's blog this morning:
WAVE 3 News goes HD starting tomorrow. WAVE will be the first station in Louisville to broadcast local news in high definition so check it out if you have an HDTV.That's awesome. I had a hunch this might happen in Louisville this year since all the cities around us were going HD (Nashville, Indianapolis, Lexington). It is just amazing that video technology has progressed enough for local TV stations to broadcast in HD. It'll be interesting to see how it looks tomorrow, as far as graphics and how many cameras they have. I guess I know what I'll be watching tomorrow... Go WAVE!
We'll see a few scattered storms around here today, with highs only topping out in the low 80's. As I said in the video forecast yesterday, there will be a gradual increase in temperatures this week with some minor storm chances in there.
Saturday, June 28, 2008
6/28 - 7:20pm - Where Are the Storms?
It looks like we've missed out on the storms in front of the cold front for today. The storms we expected this afternoon formed well to our south and east, leaving us nice and dry. There is a batch of storms expected tonight well after midnight as the cold front passes through. This should be a squall line, so make sure that your garbage cans and other things are secured outside. It looks like my theory from this morning did hold up. The clouds inhibited instability and the storms this afternoon formed where there was little or no cloud cover, to our east and south.
6/28 - 1:30pm - MODERATE Risk Issued
Well... we just got put under a MODERATE risk for severe weather by the SPC:
They're saying that instability has strengthened even though our cloud cover is still a problem. It is clearing out a little though, so maybe the atmosphere will have just enough time to recover and build up some energy. In any case, the tornado threat is still very very low. We'll see some linear storms this afternoon, possibly with some bowing segments harboring damaging winds. We're now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm as well.
I'm sorry that the story is changing so much, but that's how it goes with severe weather. You really never know for sure until just hours (or even minutes) before.
They're saying that instability has strengthened even though our cloud cover is still a problem. It is clearing out a little though, so maybe the atmosphere will have just enough time to recover and build up some energy. In any case, the tornado threat is still very very low. We'll see some linear storms this afternoon, possibly with some bowing segments harboring damaging winds. We're now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm as well.
I'm sorry that the story is changing so much, but that's how it goes with severe weather. You really never know for sure until just hours (or even minutes) before.
6/28 - 12:30pm - New Video Forecast
Doesn't look like our severe weather will be too bad, but there will be some today. Cloud cover and storms from last night have made the lower and mid levels cooler and in turn that limits instability. I don't think we'll see anything beyond gusty winds, lightning, and maybe some small hail.
Friday, June 27, 2008
6/27 - 9:30pm - Here Comes a SQUALL LINE!
We're under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch as a nasty looking squall line is getting ready to bear down on us. It should be here within the hour, since it's moving at 55mph. I can't do any severe weather video streaming since I'm still getting things ready for tomorrow's event. The worst this line will do is generate some half inch hail and possibly some pretty gusty winds. There is a tornado warning out for Orange County, IN... There is some pretty strong rotation there, so folks need to take cover up there. We're OK it looks like on the tornado situation, but straight line winds will be a big problem when the storms arrive.
6/27 - 11am - Refining the Forecast for Saturday
Something I wanted to wait and check on when things got closer to Saturday was the possibility of some storms in the area today and tomorrow morning. It looks like this could be a deal-breaker for severe weather. We're going to get some storms this afternoon and maybe even tomorrow morning as well. Having storms this close to a severe weather event throws a wrench into the whole process because the atmosphere gets turned over, meaning the air at the surface is cooler than aloft. The question is, can the atmosphere recover and reverse this before tomorrow afternoon? I doubt it can do this completely.
Taking this into play, we're going to see multiple lines of storms come through tomorrow. Our primary threat is heavy rain and high wind. The SPC says there is a possibility for some super cells, but I'm not going to put all my cards in that pile. I don't think there will be quite enough shear to make a great deal of super cells, but a couple are certainly possible. Instability is about where it was in yesterday's blog post, so no big problems there (although it would be better if the CAPE was in the 3000 J/KG range, but the morning storms will not make that possible). I think we're just about out of the woods from a tornado threat due to some of these limitations, but one or two around the region are not out of the question if we do get a few super cells. Overall, this is just a normal early Summer severe weather event for Kentuckiana.
For today, we'll see a small chance for some afternoon thunderstorms and a high around 90. I sound like a broken record because the forecast has been like this for just about every day in the past week!
Taking this into play, we're going to see multiple lines of storms come through tomorrow. Our primary threat is heavy rain and high wind. The SPC says there is a possibility for some super cells, but I'm not going to put all my cards in that pile. I don't think there will be quite enough shear to make a great deal of super cells, but a couple are certainly possible. Instability is about where it was in yesterday's blog post, so no big problems there (although it would be better if the CAPE was in the 3000 J/KG range, but the morning storms will not make that possible). I think we're just about out of the woods from a tornado threat due to some of these limitations, but one or two around the region are not out of the question if we do get a few super cells. Overall, this is just a normal early Summer severe weather event for Kentuckiana.
For today, we'll see a small chance for some afternoon thunderstorms and a high around 90. I sound like a broken record because the forecast has been like this for just about every day in the past week!
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