6/27 - 11am - Refining the Forecast for Saturday

Something I wanted to wait and check on when things got closer to Saturday was the possibility of some storms in the area today and tomorrow morning. It looks like this could be a deal-breaker for severe weather. We're going to get some storms this afternoon and maybe even tomorrow morning as well. Having storms this close to a severe weather event throws a wrench into the whole process because the atmosphere gets turned over, meaning the air at the surface is cooler than aloft. The question is, can the atmosphere recover and reverse this before tomorrow afternoon? I doubt it can do this completely.

Taking this into play, we're going to see multiple lines of storms come through tomorrow. Our primary threat is heavy rain and high wind. The SPC says there is a possibility for some super cells, but I'm not going to put all my cards in that pile. I don't think there will be quite enough shear to make a great deal of super cells, but a couple are certainly possible. Instability is about where it was in yesterday's blog post, so no big problems there (although it would be better if the CAPE was in the 3000 J/KG range, but the morning storms will not make that possible). I think we're just about out of the woods from a tornado threat due to some of these limitations, but one or two around the region are not out of the question if we do get a few super cells. Overall, this is just a normal early Summer severe weather event for Kentuckiana.

For today, we'll see a small chance for some afternoon thunderstorms and a high around 90. I sound like a broken record because the forecast has been like this for just about every day in the past week!