8/5 - 10am - Edouard Lanfall, Rough Night in Chicago

TS Edouard is making landfall this morning, just north of Houston. This is a northward shift from where it was originally plotted to reach land.



This was very close to becoming a weak hurricane, with winds now at 65mph. The lower limit for a hurricane is 73mph. This storm did close some oil platforms, but oil prices have actually dropped over the last day. Looks like supply and demand can overrule a tropical storm.

Last night, a very large and damaging derecho complex of storms hit Chicago and its Northern Indiana suburbs head-0n. Winds were clocked at 70mph in the city. More than 200,000 homes are without power in the area at the moment. It also caused evacuations at O'Hare airport and Wrigley Field. Here's a radar image I snagged last night:



Around here, we're under a SLIGHT risk for severe storms from the SPC both today and tomorrow. Instability for today and tomorrow is higher than previously thought on the SREF model, so we might get a little more than we bargained for. A line of storms is getting ready to come through the metro around an hour from now. This line has no warnings or watches associated with it, and it looks pretty benign on radar. Since these area coming through this morning, one would think that our storm threat for later today would be quashed. True, it will weaken the potential a bit this afternoon, but there's still a pretty good chance we'll see some severe weather later. If we can clear out the clouds later this morning and into the afternoon, you can bet on it.

Tomorrow's threat looks about the same in terms of severity, but I think those storms will be more isolated due to a passing cold front.

These storms this morning will limit our temperatures today, with highs in the lower 90's instead of upper 90's. Humidity will still be an issue, with heat index values in the lower 100's today. Make sure you wear light clothing and drink lots of water! Tomorrow will see a decrease in temperatures, with a high somewhere in the uppper 80's.

8/4 - 9:30am - TS Edouard, Less Severe Threat

An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Louisiana got real organized yesterday, prompting the National Hurricane Center to skip the tropical depression designation and name it Tropical Storm Edouard. This storm could become a Cat 1 Hurricane by landfall:



Notice the pink areas along the Texas coast, that's a hurricane watch. Winds are up to 50mph now, and around 75 is the threshold for a hurricane. If it continues strengthening at this rate, then it'll have no problem getting to this point. Watch the oil prices rise...

Not much has changed for severe weather on Wednesday other than the SPC's outlook, which now has no area outlined for us. I still think we might see a couple severe storms around here, but the threat will be slightly magnified to our south. As I said yesterday, we'll only see fair instability which will inhibit storm growth. Instability will be even less in the south, but more moist air and shear will probably compensate just a little. So, expect mostly strong storms with a couple severe clusters embedded on Wednesday.

Tomorrow is our hot day for the week, with temperatures topping out around 96-97 in the area. The heat index will for sure top 100. Stay hydrated!

8/3 - 10am - Mid-Week Still Looks Rocky

I mentioned yesterday that we could see some severe weather during the middle of this week. After taking a look at the GFS and NAM models this morning, I can certainly say this might happen. The SPC issued a severe weather outlook yesterday with us in the line of fire for Wednesday. While we're still on the fringe, they still think we're in for some rough weather:



The GFS and NAM confirm this risk, so they're not the only ones saying this. This is all caused by a cold front coming through in relation to a trough sinking down into the Plains states. Instability will be fair, with CAPE values from 1500 to 2000 J/KG according to the SREF. I don't think we'll be in a MODERATE risk or anything higher because we're going to be in the zone of development when this happens. The storms will be immature when they reach us, unless that area shifts north and west. I have a feeling these storms will begin as broken cell clusters and then merge into a line as they mature, especially after the models painted something similar. I'll have more on this as the situation evolves.

In the mean time, it's going to be downright hot! We'll see 90 today, with mid 90's expected tomorrow. Tuesday is the near 100 day, with highs expected in the upper 90's. The heat index will soar over 100 on Tuesday, so don't forget to drink lots of water and limit your activity if possible.

8/2 - 12:15pm - New Forecast Video

No, it won't hit 100, but it will sure feel like it next week!

8/1 - 10:30pm - Watch Cancelled, MCS Forms North

Well, an MCS did form tonight, just not where expected. The cells that formed north and west of here seemed like they were starting to connect into a linear line, but more cells in extreme Northern Indiana beat them to it. Since these became an MCS first, it sucked all the energy from our cells and left them as weak, isolated dowpours. This whole comedy of events has cancelled our severe watch, which is reasonable given our now slim chance for a storm tonight. More hot weather tomorrow!

8/1 - 6:30pm - Severe Thunderstorm Watch

The SPC issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our area until 1am tonight. A few storm cells are getting organized just to our north and west, heading southeast and potentially impacting the Louisville area later this evening. I think this will merge into one large MCS later tonight, with multiple rounds of storms possible until late evening.

8/1 - 3:30pm - Severe Chances Looming?

The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe storms in our area later today.



While nothing is showing up near us on radar at the moment, a line of storms is starting to materialize in Northern Indiana. The SPC warns that an MCS (line of storms) could reach the Ohio River later tonight. Since this is mainly a wind event, I think we're out of the line fire for tornado problems. Even though we're under the SLIGHT risk, we might not even see any storms today. We've yet to see a tangible line of severe storms form, and the one that's forecast to form could pop up in a variety of places around the region. We'll see what happens later tonight.