12/11 - 7pm - WILD Weather Week

Amazing! We hit 73 today, which is our new record high for this date. That won't last for long though as more rain comes in tomorrow and brings us highs in the 50's. On Thursday we'll see highs in the 40's with rain tapering off.


Now to the more important matter at hand, the possible snowstorm this weekend.

I just took a look at the 18z GFS model (which is now back to normal after yesterday) and it shows the heavy snow still in our neck of the woods. It is taking the low a little more north than the previous runs, but we're still below freezing for this storm. I'm a little worried that the low could pull even further north, but luckily (for snow lovers) its not doing that yet. If the low were to track into middle KY, then we'd see rain and snow. But for now, its in TN and S. KY on the models and we're still up for the storm.

How much is the next question. I've heard estimates of over 4 inches and 3-6 inches floated, but I'm thinking more IF AND ONLY IF it's ALL snow. Looking at the GFS this morning, I saw how we could easily be in the 6-8 inch range if things work out. I also saw on Henry Margusity's AccuWeather blog that another contributing factor to the snow amounts will be the southern severe storms that drift north and produce rapid snowfall rates. If this were to happen I think that we could see some extreme localized totals in some areas.

Remember folks, we're still 4 days out from this. There are thousands of things that can go wrong between now and Saturday, one of which is the temperature. If things look good by Friday, I'll issue a special Winter Weather Update video to give everyone a complete heads up on what's going to happen. Try to contain your excitement until at least Thursday folks, then I'll tell you whether to let it out or not...

12/10 - 7pm - Here's the Deal...

***DISREGARD ALL CURRENT GFS MODEL RUNS (0z-18z).***

Just do it. Please. Everyone. Yes, that means you media outlets.

I've just had enough of the inadequacies showing up on the GFS for the past few days. That forecast model is worthless right now. The problem is that the Euro, Canadian, JMA, and whatever else model you can throw at me are predicting a SNOWSTORM (you heard right) on the 15-16th (17th storm for NE US that I've been talking about) for the Louisville area. Right now the GFS is taking the low that is to produce this storm right off the coast into the Atlantic and then blowing it up into a monster. Not gonna happen folks. Nope. Here's why...

• The NAM is going deeply negative (red lines on bottom graphic): This simply means that there will be higher than normal pressure in the North Atlantic, signaling a shield of sorts to deflect all low pressure to staying within the East Coast, and not going straight out to sea.

• The GFS (I JUST saw the 18z run when writing this post and it brought the storm back, but placement is still an issue) is still taking the low too far south and making a huge storm in Alabama, which is just not the right solution given the current dry pattern there. The low wouldn't want to infiltrate that dry high down there, instead it would want to skirt along the northern edge, which is just a couple hundred miles north of the GFS forecast location on the 16th.
• Henry Margusity at Accuweather is actually putting us in the center of a snowfall potential map. He's been pretty good forecasting the recent storms in the Northeast and he's been doing well down this way as well (although there was the storm a couple weekends ago that surprised a lot of people and went north on us, which was a close call to begin with)

(Read Margusity's blog here)

• John Belski at WAVE-TV is going out on a limb (I'm behind you 100% on this) that we'll see snow on Saturday with this low. He gave the three possible low tracks (out to sea, S. Alabama, and N. Georgia) and said "I see the potential for a snowstorm". In other words, he's the only one in the local TV market calling for this (WDRB is 40 degrees and slight chance of rain/snow, WLKY is mix and snow with 30's, WHAS is cloudy and upper 30's.)

So here's my thinking, let's wait until Thursday and see what the models look like. If we're in the same or similar boat, I'm going to go ahead and call for a storm. Otherwise we'll just see what happens. Throughout the next few days we'll see fluctuations in the models, but overall I think this is the best shot we've had so far at some appreciable snow this season.


Now, shorter range (Don't you just love how I think in reverse-chronological order?)

We will see highs near or at 70 tomorrow with little rain expected. What a deal in December! The saying in Louisville is, "If you don't like the weather today, wait a little bit." That's just a little urban folklore there, but hey, 70's and snowstorms can happen in the same week!

12/8 - 5:15pm - New Forecast Video

12/6 - 8pm - WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

I thought this was something we wouldn't have to deal with tonight, but this low system has dropped south that is impacting the Midwest. Tonight we will see sleet, freezing rain and snow affect the area until mid-morning tomorrow when we should (in theory) see all precipitation turn to rain with mixed in flurries. Our low tonight will be at or just below freezing which will impact our weather for tomorrow. Downtown it's 34 right now and it's 29 out in the suburbs where I live.

If the temperature holds just below freezing we will see some major problems with the commute tomorrow morning. We'll have accumulated ice and snow (not exceeding 1 inch) on the roads in that scenario. If we stay above freezing, then it'll just be the bridges and overpasses that need watching. Personally, I think we'll see temps hold below freezing in the suburbs and right at freezing in the city. I cannot speculate on school delays for tomorrow morning, but I wouldn't be surprised if I saw some.

We've still got that 17th storm on the GFS! Remember: this is still 11 days away, do not get your hopes up.

12/5 - 9:30pm - As Promised...

The clipper last night really didn't sink as far south as I thought, but it was pretty close. Indianapolis got a pretty good shot of snow as expected, but we ended up with almost all rain. Temperatures overnight didn't go below 36, which hampered any snow from developing. That was the general consensus on yesterday's forecasts issued on it, but I thought maybe we would've seen a dusting. Just shows how volatile clippers are.

Now, as promised on my video forecast last Sunday, we're going to look at the long range prospect of some snow. As of now the GFS has a December 17th storm lined up for us, which has been showing up well on the model for a couple days or so now. Some model runs have taken it to more of a rain to snow scenario and others want all snow. And of course the amounts of snow in each model have been all over the board. After a really warm week for next week, I think it'll break in some fashion with cold air and some sort of precipitation. The solution that the GFS offers seems to fit, but of course its on the 17th of November, 12 days away from now. This is just something to keep in your back pocket as you prepare for the holidays and to check in on every few days for the next week until this gets sorted out.

Now for the shorter range, which is wet and warm as we head into next week. Tomorrow will be cold and in the mid-30's again, but we'll rise quickly into the 50's by Saturday with some rain from Friday all the way into Wednesday at least. Temperatures then will range from the lower 50's to 60's. So we're getting a reprieve from all this winter weather for this coming up week. We'll see what the week after holds later on.

12/4 - 4pm - Clipper Coming!

Sorry about not posting yesterday... The whole Southeastern U.S. AT&T DSL service was out.

Here's the deal folks. There is an Alberta Clipper system coming tonight and tomorrow. This is simply a quick shot of moisture with some cold air coming from the Northeast in Alberta, Canada, hence the name. This does mean we will get some snow tonight.

The amount of snow accumulation will be a coating to nothing, but that's still up in the air. I'm hesitant to go with the National Weather Service's forecast in saying that we won't get any accumulation because the recent GFS models are saying that the moisture is coming further south and the temperatures will hold in the lower 30's. What they're going off of is the NAM model, which pushes any appreciable precipitation into central Indiana and keeps our temperatures a little warmer. These are very hard systems to predict because the low system is weak and is vulnerable to any slight shift in a neighboring air mass, hence the uncertainty in the storm track. It's now in Iowa and looks to be moving towards Indianapolis, which is the forecast track as of now:


(Click picture for animated radar)

One thing I want to note is that there is a secondary area of moisture starting to form on the western side of the system that looks very changeable at the moment. If this area continues to develop at the rate is has been for the past couple hours, I think we may see a little more snow than previously thought. Last year we had a clipper give us a coating (and one that gave us a couple inches the year before) that previously looked as if it would completely miss us. So just stay tuned because this forecast will change by the hour. Now I don't think we'd see more than a couple inches if the forecast track did change dramatically, but it certainly bears watching.

We'll see a pretty good warm-up by the weekend after this system passes.

12/1 - 10pm - New Forecast Video

It's late, but it's here! I had some technical difficulties today due to the new logo and graphics coming in, but its been resolved now. Happy December 1st, the start of the meteorological winter!