7/12 - 11:45pm - A Festive Forecast

Tomorrow is the beginning of the Forecastle Festival at Waterfront Park in Louisville. Unfortunately rainfall could be an issue as a stationary boundary begins to move northward from North Mississippi overnight. This boundary will bring even more moisture into the area and a source of lift, the boundary itself, which should bring in some ongoing showers and storms tomorrow morning. The short-range models right now are suggesting that there may be a break in the action after 2pm, which you'll see in the NAM simulated radar image on the right. Disagreement among the models exists over whether the storms will re-fire and make an impact in the area later on in the afternoon. My thoughts on this are that storms may have trouble getting going again in the late afternoon since the morning's activity will be hanging around well into the early afternoon, but that the presence of the frontal boundary will compensate quite a bit for this. Expect then for storms to possibly re-fire and move into the area sometime after 5pm. The good news here for festival goers is that I don't think storm coverage will be quite as high during this second round, so there's a good chance the Waterfront may be able to dodge storms if they remain scattered.

Daily storm chances will continue on Saturday and Sunday as the moisture from the current system sticks around and a bit of upper-level support kicks in thanks to a trough passing through the Great Lakes region. These storm chances will be a bit lower than tomorrow's though because there won't be much of anything to trigger them, like a front, aside from daytime heating in the afternoon. Long story short, bring a rain jacket or poncho if you're going downtown for Forecastle this weekend. Temperatures will top out near 80 tomorrow as the clouds and rain move through, but it will warm into the mid 80's for the weekend in Louisville.

Speaking of this weekend, I'm going to be a busy guy! On Saturday I'm heading down to Jackson, Tennessee to do the Saturday and Sunday evening shifts of weather at WBBJ-TV. This means you'll see me on the 6pm and 10pm newscasts this weekend if you're in the viewing area. It's been almost three months since I've done weather on TV, but I'm very excited to be getting back into it this coming weekend and again on Saturday night next weekend. Be sure to tune in!