Our original plan to stay in Southeast New Mexico today has been altered because of some new weather data that came in overnight. We did visit Calsbad Caverns this morning, but we're now on our way to the Del Rio, Texas area where storms are ongoing at the moment. This activity is definitely not making it easy for our forecast this morning because having clouds and storms in the hours before an afternoon severe weather setup is never a good thing. Nonetheless, we'll be looking for holes in this activity and/or for it to die off a bit this afternoon so that stronger storms can develop. The good thing is that wind shear today looks promising due to a cut-off low in Mexico creating strong southwesterly winds aloft that will contrast with the easterly winds at the surface.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms in the region, which includes a 5% tornado risk. Should this pan out today even with the ongoing storms this morning, this could be the best setup we've seen so far this week. Here's an interesting snippet from the SPC's 1630z discussion:
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL RESULT IN PRONOUNCED VERTICAL VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR STEADILY STRENGTHENING TO 50-60 KT. AS SUCH...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
Up-to-the-minute updates will continue today on Twitter and Facebook.
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