This was just issued by the SPC:
We're just outside the MODERATE Risk area for severe storms. Our tornado chances from the SPC have risen to 5% from 2% earlier this morning.
This all should transpire this afternoon as a broken line of thunderstorms comes through. The interesting part is that shear is actually pretty good, so we could actually see a couple supercells ahead or mixed in with the main line of storms. The main threats today appear to be hail and wind, but there is a threat for isolated tornadoes. With that in mind, keep your weather radios armed this afternoon. Instability is pretty marginal, but shear coupled with forcing should make up for that. If the sun comes out today, then this threat will increase due to higher instability.
Here's what's on the radar right now:
Notice how this line is forming into broken cells as opposed to a unified line. There are three Tornado Warnings out in Southern Missouri with these storms, pretty much where the line is breaking into individual cells.
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