Was I dreaming? Disregarding the model, I came home this evening and looked at some later runs:
Yeah, that's snow on November 3rd. I still can't believe it. The GFS has had its weirdness over the past couple weeks predicting some "far out flurries" in October, but I think this one might be valid given the general consistency of the model (they all call for some sort of snow, although amounts vary greatly). Then I took a look at the NAO (a measurement of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which determines if cold storms can pass through the East US based on pressure levels in air over the Atlantic). The NAO could go negative at the beginning of November, which opens up the flap for any winter-like storms to come through our neck of the woods:
So we just need to sit tight. There is another system Nov 6th-7th that is similar, but that's way too far out to conjecture. We're still about 12 days out on this Nov 3rd system, whether it be rain or snow. I think I'll have a decent guess by this weekend, but this still could be a model game right now by the GFS taking the low too far south. In the meantime, enjoy the rain because we will get a couple inches by tomorrow, with temps dipping into the 60's!
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