Well, well, well. The SPC has put out a slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow (afternoon). I got a look at the CAPE model, which shows instability in J/KG. It had some good instability in here for the right time. The CIN model, which shows LIMITING factors to instability was nearly blank for 18UTC, our prime time for severe weather. So, I think that the next output of SPC figures will expand the slight risk for tomorrow.
Earlier today I thought that it would be a small storm ("un petit l'orage" in French). There wasn't enough instability and moisture on the models. But now, things are looking a little hairier. I'm not saying there will be a massive outbreak of anything, but I think that some areas will see hail and some gusty winds. The lighting could be impressive also.
We must bid adieu to our warm weather for a week. We'll be in the 40's and 50's this weekend, and gradually rising through the 60's through next week. The 70's WILL return next weekend, and I see an indefinite end on that pattern (woo hoo!).
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