Ryan Hoke's Blog

1/25 - 6pm - MSU Forecast and a Look Back at Monday Morning's Storms

2012-01-25T17:50:00.000-06:00

Another bout of severe weather is affecting the South as a powerful line of storms continues to push through Louisiana. These storms have spawned some tornadoes today across Louisiana and Texas while a Tornado Watch remains in effect for areas from Lake Charles, Louisiana to just south of Greenville, Mississippi. We'll be watching these storms as they track into eastern portions of Mississippi tomorrow morning. There's a chance they could be severe here in Starkville and the Golden Triangle, but the main threat should remain south of the area. Once these storms clear out we'll be left with a fantastic few days heading into the weekend. Find out more in your full forecast below:

from ABC 33/40 on Flickr

A place that's no stranger to tornadoes was hit again early Monday morning as storms dropped ten tornadoes in Alabama. The house on your left was hit by a tornado in Trussville, which is just northeast of Birmingham. These tornadoes caused over 100 injuries and at least two deaths as they moved through the darkness. Be sure to check out NWS Birmingham's updated public information page regarding this event to see the strengths and tracks that these tornadoes took. Arkansas was also hit badly by tornadoes (at least four as damage assessments continue) and you can read a synopsis of the severe weather event in that neck of the woods from this page posted by NWS Little Rock.

West Tennessee managed to escape the brunt of this system, but the National Weather Service in Memphis is investigating an area of damage near Lexington, TN (Henderson County) for a possible tornado. They've already confirmed straight-line wind damage in both Memphis and Middleburg, TN so far. NWS Memphis also has a page where you can see their ongoing assessment of damage in the area. UPDATE 12:10am: NWS Memphis has now confirmed an EF-1 tornado in Henderson County near Lexington, TN:

5 S Lexington [Henderson Co, TN] nws storm survey reports TORNADO of F1 at 22 Jan, 11:58 PM CST -- ef1 tornado with estimated winds of 105 mph touched down 5 miles south of lexington and continued east 8 miles. numerous trees were uprooted or snapped along the path. a roof was blown off a house. a shed in the backyard was also destroyed. the tornado touched down on primarily ridge tops before eventually lifting just northeast of butterscotch road. maximum width 150 yards.

This event again underscores the need for more ways to get the warning out to folks, especially during an overnight event when people are asleep. The best way to do this is have a NOAA Weather Radio in alert mode by your bedside or to have an app on your iPhone like iMapWeather Radio. There are text-based alerting solutions offered by individual TV stations and networks too.

1/21 - 11pm - Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Tomorrow

2012-01-21T22:56:00.000-06:00

A line of strong storms moved through West Tennessee this morning, but what's on the way for tomorrow evening could be even more potent with the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes. Check out my broadcast from this morning below to see what all this means and then continue on below the video for a detailed severe weather breakdown:

Timing and Threats

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk with a 30% hatched area for tomorrow's severe weather event from Mississippi to Indiana. The main time frame for these storms to roll through West Tennessee and Mississippi will be from 5pm tomorrow to 3am Monday. This does not mean ten straight hours of storms in any one location, but rather a ten hour window where storms will be affecting the region. Wind damage and hail will be the most common threats, but this could also be a significant tornado event. Some individual supercells or cell clusters may form ahead of a main QLCS (squall line) of storms late tomorrow afternoon and evening. These front-running storms, should they form, would be the ones with the highest tornado risk, but both the line of storms and the individual cells could produce a significant tornado or two. The SPC's wording on their Slight Risk outlook is fairly strong:

AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

Setup

The setup for tomorrow's severe weather event is fairly classic. A large trough will be moving through the region providing increased wind speed aloft, which increases instability and provides wind shear. This trough will also be negatively tilted, meaning the axis or tightest gradient of the trough will be leaning from southeast to northwest as you see in the graphic to the right from the 0z NAM model. This negative tilting further increases wind shear because the upper level winds take on a more southerly component rather than a southwesterly one.

Not only will we have wind shear between the surface and aloft, but also the surface and the low levels of the atmosphere too. This low-level shear is essential for tornadoes to form and for storms to overcome low levels of instability. The NAM output has quite a bit of low-level shear from Mississippi all the way to Kentucky, so that's a pretty good indication that rotating storms and tornadoes will be possible during the duration of this event tomorrow.

The amount of moisture that will be surging up from the Gulf of Mexico while the region is in the warm sector of this system is going to be tremendous. The current dewpoint in Starkville, Mississippi is 41 degrees, but by tomorrow evening we'll be in the 60's. That is certainly enough moisture to supply the atmosphere with the needed instability for severe weather.

When you put together these factors plus the idea that we may have CAPE (instability) values over 1000 J/kg, you get a fairly decent tornado risk. The Significant Tornado Parameter exceeds 2 on the 21z SREF model at 9pm and midnight (1/23) tomorrow and has been fairly consistent on the last few runs of the SREF. This is not "off the charts" or anything like that, but it's enough to raise eyebrows. As stated above, both individual cells and the main QLCS line of storms could produce strong tornadoes. The QLCS will be especially difficult because there could be embedded supercell structures within it that produce tornadoes like an individual supercell would. I still think the highest tornado risk will be in Northeast Mississippi (Starkville, West Point, Columbus, Tupelo, Corinth, etc.), but the latest indications like the STP above are pointing toward that threat leaking over into southern portions West Tennessee as well.

I'll be updating my Twitter, Facebook, and Google+ accounts all day tomorrow as these storms roll through, so be sure to follow or friend me for the latest information.

1/18 - 3pm - Mississippi State Forecast, KY/IN Tornado Update

2012-01-18T14:58:00.000-06:00

It's still cold out there in Mississippi after a frigid morning with temperatures in the 30's. A cold front that passed through yesterday is to blame for the chill, but fear not, temperatures will be back to around 60 for highs by tomorrow afternoon. Quick turnaround, huh? Some rain and a few storms will be possible Friday night into Saturday with temperatures still increasing. A shot of severe weather may be possible sometime around the middle of next week, so keep watch for more updates on that forecast as it becomes clearer. Today's Mississippi State University forecast video is below:

Brownsboro Rd in Louisville

The count of yesterday's confirmed tornadoes in Kentucky and Indiana has now reached seven according to the National Weather Service in Louisville. The strongest of these was an EF-2 in Simpson and Allen Counties in Kentucky. Two of these tornadoes with winds of up to 100 mph occurred in highly-populated portions of the city of Louisville in Jefferson County. NWS Louisville is updating a webpage continuously with information about these tornadoes as it becomes available from their damage surveys.

1/17 - 5:15pm CST - A Day of Tornadoes in Kentuckiana and Mississippi

2012-01-17T17:14:00.000-06:00

Two tornadoes have now been confirmed by NWS Louisville in Kentucky and Indiana. The first of these is an EF-1 that caused damage in the Springhurst area of Northeast Louisville (photos from John Belski's Weather Blog):

...EF-1 Tornado Confirmed in Jefferson County Kentucky...

Brownsboro Rd, Louisville
Damage Type: Tornado
Date: Jan 17 2012
EF Scale: 1
Wind Speed: 95 MPH
Path Length: 4.2 MILES
Path Width: 250 YARDS

Narrative: An NWS storm survey has confirmed an EF-1 tornado in Jefferson County, Kentucky. The tornado touched down near the intersection of I-264 and Brownsboro Road. The tornado tracked northeast to near the intersection of Hurstbourne and Brownsboro Road where it briefly lifted. The tornado then reformed and crossed I-265. The preliminary path length is 4.2 miles with a path width of 250 yards. This storm survey is ongoing and information in this statement will be updated as it becomes available.

The second tornado hit the airport in Madison, Indiana and carries an EF-0 rating with 85 mph winds:

...EF-0 Tornado Confirmed in Jefferson County Indiana...

Madison, IN Airport
Damage Type: Tornado
Date: Jan 17 2012
Start Time: 10:40 AM EST
End Time: 10:40 AM EST
EF Scale: 0
Wind Speed: 85 MPH
Path Length: 0.3 Miles
Path Width: 60 Yards

Narrative: An EF-0 tornado touched down at the Madison Municipal County Airport. Damage was confined to IMS Lane. The tornado touched down briefly along this path and moved an at least 500 pound dumpster 35 feet southeast. It also moved a Beechcraft/King Air plane 10 degrees and the nose gear was broken. The airport operations building had a disabled awning and post. Part of a hangar`s siding came off with siding and insulation up in trees. Several trees were snapped along the narrow path. A witness saw the swirl as the tornado touched down.

It's worth noting that the Storm Prediction Center did not issue a Tornado Watch today during this severe weather event. There may be more tornadoes confirmed in the Louisville area tomorrow as more surveys are conducted, especially in Clarksville, IN where damage has been well publicized. Two tornadoes were also reported in Mississippi this afternoon in Tippah and Marion Counties:

1800		3 NE DUMAS	TIPPAH	MS	3467	8880	TORNADO SIGHTED IN THE DUMAS PINE GROVE AREA NEAR HIGHWAY 4. (MEG)
2207		7 E SANDY HOOK	MARION	MS	3104	8969	PROBABLE TORNADO ... MOBILE HOME DESTROYED WITH PERSON POSSIBLY TRAPPED ... NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ... EMERGENCY PERSONNEL HAVING DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE SIT (JAN)

Ratings on these possible tornadoes will likely come tomorrow when NWS crews are able to get out and survey the damage.

Unfortunately severe weather could become an issue again this time next week as a potent trough moves through the Southeastern portion of the nation. The GFS and Euro computer models indicate ample upper-level support and moisture return for a severe weather setup, but this is not set in stone yet as things can change in a week's time. Stay tuned!

1/14 - 10pm - All Sorts of Interesting Weather Today!

2012-01-14T21:54:00.000-06:00

Henderson County, TN

The Wind Advisory that was in place for southwestern portions of Tennessee today was canceled at noon because wind speeds across the region were falling just below the 25 mph necessary. Nevertheless it was quite breezy and today's high in Jackson got up to 54 degrees, well above what was expected. Some clouds from the Alberta Clipper system (explained below) did make it into the region and I even managed to find some mammatus clouds, which are pictured on the right, in Henderson County, TN this morning. You usually find these underneath a springtime thunderstorm, but in this instance I think they may have been caused by snow hitting the layer of dry air in place underneath the clouds. Aside from the oddities of today's weather, the new week looks warm until Tuesday when showers and storms will give way to another cold snap and again another gradual warm up. Check out my forecast on WBBJ this morning (my first one in 2012!) below for more details:

What is an Alberta Clipper? Put simply it's a fast-moving area of low pressure that dives southward from the area near Alberta, Canada in the wintertime and spreads light snow to the Midwestern states. This particular Clipper was an interesting one because it centered its maximum snowfall in a very small area as the storm moved through Kentucky and Tennessee. More specifically, this area was just south of Louisville from Harrison County, Indiana to just south of Lexington, KY. Accumulations vary widely in Louisville because of the scattered nature of the snow bands that moved through, but they seem to range between a half inch to around two inches. South of town there are reports of more than three inches around Bardstown and Taylorsville! NWS Louisville's forecast graphic from earlier this evening points out pretty well where the most snow has fallen and you can tell exactly where the heavy snow band sat this afternoon. I drove through this band near Radcliff, KY on my way from Jackson, TN to Louisville and I can verify that it was indeed very heavy as indicated on the map. I took a quick video of today's snow at my house in Southeast Louisville just as I got home for my long weekend:

1/12 - 6pm - Another Cold/Warm Roller Coaster

2012-01-12T17:55:00.000-06:00

Cold air is filtering into West Tennessee and North Mississippi as a cold front that came through earlier this morning continues to move east. Snow showers fell as far south as portions of North Mississippi this afternoon, but the bigger snows from this system were confined further north into Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana and the Great Lakes. Check out this picture below that my sister sent me of the scene this afternoon at my house in Louisville, KY:

Even though only an inch or so will be on the ground by later tonight, the gusty winds of 20 mph+ could create blowing snow conditions with low visibility.

You'll feel the cold air behind the front tonight for sure if you're out and about. By early tomorrow morning temperatures across West Tennessee could be in the lower 20's and upper teens while North Mississippi will bottom out in the lower 20's. Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 30's in West Tennessee to the mid 40's further south in Mississippi.

That's about it for the cold though. Not long at all, right? Warmer weather will begin moving in for the weekend and early next week a ridge builds into the eastern half of the nation. Temperatures will likely get near 60 early next week before another system brings rain on Monday night and cooler temperatures for the middle of next week. The roller coaster continues!

1/5 - 12:30pm - The Real Cold is Coming!

2012-01-05T11:26:00.001-06:00

After a brief period of bitterly cold temperatures earlier this week, most of the eastern half of the nation is beginning to recover. Highs in Louisville today will get into the 50's and West Tennessee could reach 60 in places. This is all thanks to southerly airflow under a ridge that's developing to the west. Temperatures will remain reasonably warm with a few small dips this weekend.The big story is what will happen during the middle of next week. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) are forecast to go at least neutral or negative during this time, which means that the pattern will be ready to support an outbreak of cold air in the East. The computer models have had a very difficult time lately resolving when exactly these oscillations will go negative, but it seems like there's enough of a consensus now to say that this will probably happen. How long they will stay negative remains to be seen, but given the time of year we're in now I would expect the cold air to stick around for a while.

The next issue with this cold air is the possibility of snow. A storm moving through on Wednesday could produce a rain to snow situation for Kentucky and Tennessee on Wednesday night if the cold air moves in quick enough. This is certainly something to watch since the models are not picking up on this well at this time. What they are picking up on is the bitter cold in the wake of this system as a trough sits on top of the East US. If you didn't get the super-heavy jackets out this week, you'll definitely need them by the end of next week!

I'm heading back to Mississippi State for the spring semester, so my broadcasts at WBBJ will resume next weekend. See you then!

12/30 - 3:30pm - A Good Day to Fly a Kite in Kentucky

2011-12-30T14:30:00.000-06:00

Gusty winds will continue through this afternoon in Louisville and most of Central Kentucky as a storm system in the Midwest creates quite the pressure gradient for strong winds. Winds at 5,000 feet (850 mb in weather geek speak) are high right now, surpassing 50 kts or 60 mph as you'll see in the orange shade on the left image. The peeks of sunshine we're seeing are allowing these winds to mix down to the surface due to heating, and that's why we're having the higher wind gusts.

The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for areas just south of Louisville since wind gusts have been hitting the criteria for this down that way. Even without the Wind Advisory, Louisville could see gusts surpassing 30 mph this afternoon as a cold front continues to approach from the west.

Check out some of the wind speeds and gusts from around the region as of 3pm. I've highlighted the wind gusts that are close to Wind Advisory criteria in orange and the ones that exceed the criteria (40 mph) in red:

Louisville Airport: SW 17 mph, gusting to 24 mph

Bowman Field: SW 18 mph, gusting to 29 mph

SE Louisville: SW 9 mph, gusting to 26 mph
Fort Knox: SW 23 mph, gusting to 33 mph

Lexington: SW 21 mph, gusting to 39 mph

Frankfort: SW 23 mph, gusting to 44 mph

Bowling Green: SW 17 mph, gusting to 29 mph

More cities and observations are available hourly on the NWS's State Weather Roundup. A few light showers will be possible this evening in Louisville and surrounding areas as this front moves through.

12/26 - 12:30pm - Post-Christmas Snow Chance?

2011-12-26T11:29:00.000-06:00

While many did not have a white Christmas yesterday, it certainly was a nice day across much of the East US with warm temperatures. We now turn our attention to a system that will be bringing much of the Southeast rain and possibly some snow as you head northward. This system is brewing in the Gulf Coast states right now and will bring West Tennessee rain this afternoon through tomorrow and the Louisville area rain tonight through tomorrow. While West Tennessee will likely stay all rain throughout the duration of this system due to warmer temperatures, Kentuckiana may have to deal with some snowfall during the afternoon tomorrow. The track of this storm from Tennessee to Eastern Kentucky is usually one that gives us our bigger snow events during the winter, but this time that won't be the case because of the lack of cold air we'll have to work with.

The forecast for snow is a tough one because we'll be dealing with colder air coming in on the backside of this system to give us our snow. This means that the atmosphere will cool from top to bottom and while snow will be falling it will likely not accumulate much, if any, because the air at the surface will still be warm while the upper atmosphere cools down. Nevertheless, a switchover to snow in the Louisville area will likely happen sometime tomorrow during the early to mid afternoon hours as cold air penetrates enough of the atmosphere to keep snow falling all the way to the surface. The NAM (left) seems to be the most aggressive on this switchover right now due to the surge of cold air it brings in early on in the afternoon in Louisville but the forecast sounding, or a vertical snapshot of the atmosphere at a given time, still indicates that we'll have temperatures just above freezing near the surface. This means that snow will be making it to the ground, but will likely melt on contact or accumulate lightly on the grass and elevated areas in heavier snow bands. Speaking of banding, that's another issue we could face. Snow banding is when you get a thin strips of heavy snow falling that look like bands due to winds coming together in these areas. These bands can produce snow accumulations even when temperatures are above freezing, just like in Jackson, Tennessee earlier this month when over an inch of snow accumulated with temperatures just above freezing.

Overall, I think areas in and close to Louisville can expect a dusting and maybe up to an inch of snow on grassy and elevated surfaces at some point tomorrow evening. If cooler air does not come in as quickly as expected this will remain a rain/snow mix or even just plain rain. Areas north and west of the Ohio River have the best shot for a light accumulating snow as they'll be slightly cooler and have an earlier switchover during the late morning hours. Most of the models are agreeing that we'll stay above freezing during most of this event, but we will be dipping down below that mark late Tuesday evening. This may create slick spots if any roads are wet from the snowfall during the afternoon. The 12z NAM (top left) is indeed the most aggressive on snowfall totals around here by looking at the snowfall output map, which you can see a larger view of by clicking. The 0z GFS (bottom left) is less aggressive, which is typical for it lately, and the Euro (which I cannot post here to copyright policies) keeps the snowfall along and north of the Ohio River. There are still a lot of small variables like exactly how fast the precipitation will move out of here and how much cold air will actually work into this process, so little details like these can drastically alter who gets snow and how much.

12/17 - 11:50pm - A Not So White Christmas

2011-12-17T22:51:00.001-06:00

Positive NAO - http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/NAO

Christmas is just a week away and snow chances for many in the eastern half of the nation look pretty bleak. The next major system to pull through on Tuesday and Wednesday will produce snow in the Plains, but to the east it's expected to be all rain. A second low moving through the Deep South on Friday will bring more rain, but most of that will stay south of Kentucky and the heaviest south of Tennessee. After that point it looks pretty dry right through Christmas. Why so rainy and relatively warm lately? It has to do with the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO for short. When the NAO is negative, storms tend to ride up the East Coast or just west of the Appalachian Mountains. This is a recipe for snow for many across the East since these storms have cold air streaming in just to the north of their track. When the NAO is positive, storms begin deflecting northward to Canada before they reach the Mississippi River. This means that the cold air and snow with these storms stays out in the Plains. The NAO is in this positive phase right now and isn't forecast to go neutral or even negative until around the new year (see forecast and history chart to the right). Until we can get the NAO negative, I wouldn't bet on a winter storm for Kentucky, Tennessee, or much of anywhere else in the East.

23% of the United States is covered by snow at the moment, which is quite a bit lower than the 47.3% covered by snow at this time last year. Aside from Lake Effect snowcover in Pennsylvania and New York and snowcover in northern Maine, the East is snow-less.

A big winter storm is forecast to hit New Mexico, the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and Kansas on Monday and Tuesday as an area of low pressure cuts northeastward (because of the positive NAO as explained above) through the Plains. A Blizzard Warning (green color on right image) has been issued for Northeast New Mexico while the other areas are under a Winter Storm Watch. Areas in the core of the snowfall north of Amarillo, TX up through Dodge City, KS could get well over a foot of snow.

12/12 - 7pm - A Few Bits About Snow

2011-12-12T18:01:00.001-06:00

While things have since quieted down snow-wise, it has been a very snowy start to the season in West Tennessee. Jackson, TN has had 3.3 inches of snow so far this season, which is an astounding figure given that only about 0.1 inches falls on average by this time of year. This total beats out the season totals in many northern cities, some of which are known for their heavy snowfall including Buffalo, New York and Bismarck, North Dakota. Check out the graphic on the left to see a full list of some of the cities that Jackson is beating out. The rain to snow chance on the 21st isn't showing up on the models right now because they're dissolving the upper-level low before it makes it past NW Arkansas, but it's something to keep an eye on. A few flakes may fly further north near Louisville, but even that's not going to be a big deal according to the models. Another system packing precipitation and cold air may try to roll through a couple days before Christmas too, but that's way to far down the road to make guesses for any location at this point.

Speaking of snow, did you know that the Grand Canyon in Arizona gets more snow than Minneapolis, Minnesota? It's true! You may think of Arizona as a dry and hot state, but the higher elevations in the northern regions near Flagstaff get quite a bit of snow. Grand Canyon Village, AZ at the top of the canyon is expected to get 4 to 10 inches of snow by Wednesday morning while Flagstaff could get 12 to 16 inches. These areas are under a Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning respectively.

12/10 - 2:30pm - A Cool Weekend Before the Rain

2011-12-10T14:09:00.001-06:00

The sunshine and drier air moving in helped us get into the lower 40's this afternoon in Jackson. This is a welcome surprise since all indications this morning were pointing to a high only in the upper 30's. Tomorrow will be a day like today again in the 40's with plenty of sunshine. By the middle of next week we'll be talking warmer temperatures in the 50's and 60's, but rain chances will be on the increase. Thursday looks to be the best shot at rain in West Tennessee as a cold front generates a line of thunderstorms that will move though ahead of the front. Some of these could be on the strong side, so this is something we'll have to keep an eye on. Be sure to click on your Hokey Weather Fact of the day on the left, which relates to the movie A Christmas Story, and check out your full forecast from this morning's edition of Good Morning West Tennessee on WBBJ below:

12/3 - 2:45pm - Batten Down the Hatches, Heavy Rain is Coming!

2011-12-03T14:46:00.000-06:00

West Tennessee and North Mississippi are going to be inundated with heavy rainfall starting tomorrow and lasting through Tuesday. The HPC's latest 12z rainfall forecast (right) has over 5 inches of precipitation in portions of Northwest Tennessee by the time this is all said and done, but amounts of 2 inches and over will be quite common across the area. Flooding will no doubt be a concern since this rain will fall on already saturated ground in a relatively short period of time (mostly Sunday and Monday), so the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for the entirety of West Tennessee for Sunday morning through Monday night. The Tennessee and Mississippi Rivers will have to be watched during this, along with those low-lying areas that usually flood during these kinds of heavy rainfall events. After the rain and accompanying cold front move through, cooler temperatures and dry weather will be the rule for Wednesday and the remainder of the week. Check out my complete forecast on WBBJ this morning below for all the details:

11/30 - 4pm - Mid-South Winter Storm Wrap-Up

2011-11-30T15:48:00.001-06:00

The National Weather Service in Memphis has released a snowfall map that recaps the measured snowfall totals across the Mid-South. Jackson, TN broke an all-time November snowfall record with 2.0", but note that slightly higher totals were recorded elsewhere in Madison County away from where the official observations are taken for the NWS. Look at those snowfall accumulations of over 5" in Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel... very impressive! This was quite a rare storm and the method through which the storm produced the snow, a cut-off low that supplied its own cold air from aloft, is something that doesn't happen too often either.

The snow was even apparent on visible satellite this morning, which is amazing because temperatures were above freezing for most of yesterday:

Wintry weather should stay out of the forecast for at least the next week or so, but rain chances will be on the increase in West Tennessee early next week. The GFS computer model is hinting at the possibility of a little bit of snow late next weekend, but it's much too far out to make any predictions at this point. Certainly something to watch!

11/28 - 8pm - Starkville Christmas Parade Weather Report

2011-11-28T19:57:00.001-06:00

This evening WOBV-TV 5 in Starkville, MS aired a weather forecast I put together for this year's Starkville Christmas Parade TV broadcast. Check out this video from tonight's program:

Scroll down to see my thoughts about the ongoing winter storm impacting much of the Mid-South right now.

11/28 - 2:45pm - An Early Shot of Winter Weather

2011-11-28T14:34:00.000-06:00

A complicated upper-level low is making for some difficult forecasting over the next 24 hours as it brings the first real chance of snow to the South this season. This upper-level low is basically a big bubble of cold air aloft that has been orphaned from a bigger system that has since moved away from the region. Since we still have showers in the area, this cold air will help to turn those into snow by late tonight in areas near Starkville and northward. Since temperatures at the surface here in Starkville won't make it above 34 or so, any brief period of snow we see will not stick to the ground. I do think there could be a complete changeover to snow here in Starkville tomorrow morning around 8 or 9am, but this is highly dependent upon how well the computer models handle this system. Further north near Tupelo, Memphis, and Jackson, TN there will be enough cold air to get the snow on the ground when it falls, but the vast amount of warm rain we've had lately has kept the ground warm and moist, so snow accumulations won't stick around for long. Travel hazards won't be a huge deal since the roads are still warm, but it's a good idea to keep a look out for slick spots where temperatures dip below freezing tonight. Click on the SREF model snow output to the right... I think it has the most reasonable estimate on who will get accumulating snow tonight.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for areas from Tupelo to McNairy County, TN until 6am tomorrow since heavier snow could result in accumulations of 3 inches or more. The Winter Weather Advisory around the periphery of the Watch is for wet snow accumulations that could total around 1 to 3 inches. The snow should end by late morning tomorrow as it converts back to rain showers and then the precipitation will clear the area completely by around noon or so.

Check out my video below for a complete look at this week's forecast in Starkville and more details about the snow that's headed our way:

This evening at 6pm is the annual Starkville Christmas Parade. I'll be doing a short weather segment for the parade broadcast on WOBV 5 in Starkville. This event will also be streamed live on the web, so be sure to check out http://parade.wobv5.com/ tonight at 6pm CST to see my forecast and enjoy the parade!

11/20 - 12:15pm - Active Weather on the Horizon

2011-11-20T10:54:00.001-06:00

Heavy rain and storms are going to be sticking around the Southeast for the next couple of days as a stalled front sets up just northwest of Tennessee and Kentucky. Rainfall amounts in West Tennessee through Central Kentucky could exceed two inches by the time this is all said and done on Wednesday morning, leading to some flooding issues in areas (such as Northwest Tennessee) that have seen quite a bit of rainfall already this month. Something that has become more apparent this morning is the risk for severe weather on Tuesday (left image), when upper-level wind support will come in to play. The greatest risk for severe storms will be throughout most of Mississippi and West through Middle Tennessee. This severe weather threat will likely materialize as a line of storms carrying high winds and the risk for a few isolated tornadoes, but there could also be a few storms out ahead of the main line as well. Once we clear the storms out on Wednesday we'll be left with sunny skies and cooler temperatures throughout the region, giving us a very nice Thanksgiving! Check out the video below for my forecast on yesterday morning's edition of Good Morning West Tennessee on WBBJ:

11/14 - 12:45pm - Severe Risk Tomorrow in Mississippi

2011-11-14T12:41:00.001-06:00

It's a dreary and humid one out there today but a Slight Risk of severe weather is in place for tomorrow across the western 3/4 of Mississippi as a potent system approaches. Severe storms are also possible around the Golden Triangle tomorrow as heavy rain, high winds, and even some hail moves through the region. This should clear out by Wednesday afternoon and leave us with clearing skies and cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week. Check out your complete forecast in the video below:

11/12 - 2:30pm - Hold on to Your Hats!

2011-11-12T14:24:00.001-06:00

It's going to be a windy and warm weekend across West Tennessee. Winds will likely reach 15 mph today and 20 mph with higher gusts on both days. Temperatures are going to be very nice, getting into the lower 70's by tomorrow afternoon. Rain will move through on Monday night, some of which could be quite heavy and will last until Tuesday morning. After the cold front generating these storms moves through on Tuesday, we'll be seeing temperatures only getting into the upper 50's by Wednesday. Check out the video below for all the details!

11/7 - 2:30pm - Sunny and Warm, Then Storms

2011-11-07T14:15:00.000-06:00

If you haven't stepped outside today, you really need to do so. It's 72° in Starkville as of this writing and the mostly clear skies couldn't be any nicer. That will continue into tomorrow when we'll see highs near 80 degrees in some locations across North Mississippi and maybe a few more clouds. Storms will roll through on Tuesday night into Wednesday, but I don't expect any severe weather in the immediate Starkville/MSU area because of a lack of moisture to fuel these storms. On the other had, areas near Lawton, Oklahoma to just north of Abilene, TX are in for a good shot of severe weather with tornadoes possible. This threat will shift eastward to Eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas tomorrow with a few strong storms even making it to the Delta region of Mississippi. After the system bringing these storms passes through on Wednesday morning, we'll be left with much cooler temperatures and quiet weather. Check out my forecast video below for more details:

11/5 - 2:45pm - A Foggy Start to a Nice Weekend!

2011-11-05T14:43:00.000-05:00

It was extremely foggy in West Tennessee this morning as low-level moisture and chilly temperatures set in overnight. This morning on TV I showed a photo (left) from Kelton Halbert of the very low visibility at the Nashville International Airport early this morning. What a sight! The fog has dissipated and we'll be left with a very nice weekend with temperatures in the upper 60's to 70 degrees before our next rain chance on Tuesday night. This rain chance entails some strong storms, but current indications are that most of the severe weather will stay west of the Mississippi River as it rolls through on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Expect cooler temperatures for the end of the workweek. Check out the video below for your complete forecast:

10/29 - 4pm - The Hokey Halloween Cape Returns!

2011-10-29T16:01:00.001-05:00

In the spirit of Halloween I wore my famous Hokey Halloween cape on-air this morning during a couple weather segments. It was really cold out there during our show, getting down to 28 degrees at the lowest point. After seeing 60 for a high in Jackson today we should bump up to near 70 by the middle of next week. A weak cold front will pass through on Monday, but that shouldn't really impact conditions much. Storms on Thursday will be our next rain chance before getting much cooler again for next weekend. Check out the video below to see the caped forecaster!

As if the cape weren't enough, a stolen SUV that police were looking for sped into the parking lot at WBBJ-TV around 4am while I was working on my forecast graphics. The suspect driving the vehicle fled on foot after attempting to find a way out. Master control, who monitors the security cameras, immediately called the police and K9 units were on the scene within minutes. All of us inside the studio and newsroom were obviously spooked because the suspect was on the loose for a few minutes as police tried to locate him. How often does breaking news come right to the door of a TV station? Wow! Check out the video below for the full story:

10/24 - 12:45pm - Foggy Start, Warm Day!

2011-10-24T12:42:00.000-05:00

Some thick fog developed over portions of Mississippi this morning causing some visibility issues across the region. That has since cleared out and we're left with clear skies and temperatures that will be getting into the middle 70's this afternoon in Starkville. We'll warm it up to around 80 by Tuesday, but thunderstorms are on the way for Thursday and Friday as a cold front passes through on Thursday. Not expecting any severe weather at this point, but drier areas to our north will benefit from the rain greatly. Things should really cool down behind the front this weekend and skies will clear as well. Check out your detailed forecast in the video below:

10/22 - 12:30pm - Warmer Temperatures in West TN, then Snow?

2011-10-22T12:24:00.000-05:00

Jackson, TN bottomed out at 32 degrees this morning, which is two degrees warmer than our low temperature yesterday but still very chilly. We'll warm things up gradually around West Tennessee this weekend with 60's for highs today, 70's for both tomorrow and Monday, and 80's for Tuesday. What a warm-up! A cold front coming through on Wednesday night will generate some thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday, possibly into Friday as well. This system has slowed down on the computer models a little bit, but I think we should have all the rain out of here by Friday evening. It will be MUCH colder behind this front and as NWS Memphis points out, there's even a hint of some hypothetical snow on the computer models with this system:

IN FACT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUB 540 DAM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THEN IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OBVIOUSLY THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING THAT WE ARE STILL IN LATE OCTOBER.

Honestly I don't think much if any snow will make it to the ground on Thursday night, but it could be close as some very cold air filters in behind that cold front. Check out some video from this morning's edition of Good Morning West Tennessee on WBBJ below:

I'll be on the 6pm and 10pm shows this evening (which will likely air a few minutes later than their assigned times due to football on TV), so be sure to tune in and check out the latest changes in your forecast!

10/17 - 11:30pm - NWA 2011 Meeting Wrap-Up

2011-10-17T23:42:00.002-05:00

Both yesterday and today I attended and volunteered at the 36th Annual National Weather Association Meeting in Birmingham, Alabama. This was the most-attended NWA meeting in history and evidence of that was clear this morning when there were no more seats for attendees! The volunteer portion of my attendance had me taking video of research posters from students and professionals for the agenda on the NWA website. While the meeting runs until Thursday, I had to leave late this afternoon to attend to class-related things back in Starkville. I wish I could've stayed longer because this was one of the best put together functions I've ever attended.

Speaking of attendance, I was able to meet quite a few experienced broadcast meteorologists while I was there. Some of those folks were Jim Cantore (The Weather Channel), Jacqui Jeras (CNN), Christie Dutton (WAVE-TV Louisville), Ryan Vaughan (KAIT-TV Jonesboro), Mary Wasson (YNN Austin), and Dave Freeman (KSNW Wichita). It was also great to see some old friends whom I've met before in Starkville at the Mississippi State Severe Storms Symposium.

The sessions that took place while I was there mostly focused on the historic tornadoes from this past year, and some of these spurred some really great discussion on how we as broadcast and operational meteorology professionals can improve our methods to save lives in severe weather. One of the things that strikes me from multiple presentations is the public's low use of NOAA weather radios. While these are lifesaving devices, it's clear that these things are very difficult to operate if you're not familiar with consumer electronic devices or don't understand how SAME codes work. This is a huge problem because people then depend on less reliable means of receiving warnings like tornado sirens. As I tweeted earlier today, Dave Freeman suggested that weather radios should use ZIP codes instead of SAME codes to separate out warnings. This would be much easier because just about everyone knows their ZIP code, but almost nobody (including me!) knows their county SAME code without consulting the NWS website. It's true that this wouldn't be an easy solution since either the radios or warning system would have to be able to identify ZIP codes based on coordinate polygons and because some ZIP codes are way too big. In the long run though, these would be relatively minor changes to a system that's had years of development behind it.

There's also been talk from a lot of people suggesting the placement of GPS chips in weather radios to determine exact location so that there's even less of a chance of the radio going off for a warning that does not pertain to the user. This is also a great idea that wouldn't require terribly huge changes to radios and how warnings are issued. Overall, I gathered from today's and yesterday's presentations that more needs to be done to make severe weather warnings more accessible and understandable to the public to save lives in events like April 27th. The technology is there and the ideas are in place, and the recent tornadoes that claimed so many lives this year are proof that these changes are necessary.

10/15 - 3pm - It's Blast Furnace Time in West Tennessee!

2011-10-15T14:59:00.000-05:00

Are you ready for a big warm-up? As high pressure shoves eastward we'll be seeing southerly winds bringing in some very warm air this weekend. This will push highs into the middle 80's for Sunday and Monday, which is almost record-breaking for West Tennessee. A cold front will bring an end to the warm temperatures on Monday night and storms appear likely. Some of these could be on the strong side, but we're not expecting a severe weather outbreak at this point. Temperatures behind this front may struggle to reach 60 on Wednesday, but we'll warm into the upper 60's by the end of the workweek. Check out my video below for a full forecast!

10/10 - 1pm - A Few Showers Around Mississippi

2011-10-10T12:47:00.000-05:00

Moisture from the area of low pressure over Florida is providing us with a few rain showers across Mississippi today. These will likely continue throughout the day and taper off tomorrow. Not everyone will see rain, but don't be shocked to find a few raindrops falling at your location this afternoon. A cold front will move through on Wednesday evening and increase the potential for a few showers and storms, but after that point we'll see cooler temperatures and sunny skies as we head into the weekend. Check out the video below for more details:

10/9 - 2pm - Can We Get Some Rain?

2011-10-09T13:56:00.001-05:00

It's been over two weeks now since rain has been recorded in Jackson, TN, but luckily there are some rain chances in the forecast. If you look off to the east you'll see a deck of high, thin clouds that will be moving into the area later this evening. These clouds are a general outline of the westward-moving tropical moisture that will power the chance for a few showers across West Tennessee tomorrow. A more appreciable rain chance with some thunderstorms will arrive on Wednesday night as a cold front passes through. After that point we'll be left with clear skies and temperatures only in the 70's.

Check out some clips from my weathercasts on Good Morning West Tennessee and the 6pm news on WBBJ yesterday for more details on this week's weather:

10/3 - 2:30pm - Gradual Warm-Up on the Way!

2011-10-03T14:21:00.002-05:00

After having lows in the upper 30's this morning across much of North Mississippi and the Golden Triangle, we're enjoying temperatures in the lower 70's this afternoon. High pressure will gradually move east of us this week, meaning southerly warm winds will return to the region. Warmer temperatures are on tap throughout the week here in Starkville, getting into the mid 80's by the time we cap off the workweek on Friday. The next chance of rain will be sometime early next week, so enjoy this nice stretch of weather! Check out the video below for your detailed forecast:

10/1 - 3:30pm - October Comes in Cool

2011-10-01T15:41:00.001-05:00

Across West Tennessee this morning we saw overnight lows in the upper 40's, but luckily we've warmed up to a slightly chillier-than-average 66 degrees so far. Tonight's lows across the region will be in the mid to upper 30's. Low-lying valleys and other areas prone to cooler temperatures could see patchy frost early tomorrow morning. The rest of the week features warming temperatures and sunny skies. That's a pleasant and easy-to-digest forecast for sure! Check out the video below for some highlights from my weathercasts on this morning's edition of Good Morning West Tennessee on ABC 7:

9/28 - 9pm - Big Pattern Change Coming Up

2011-09-28T20:47:00.001-05:00

A pretty sizable pattern change is shaping up for the entire Southeast that will result in some very seasonable fall weather. A large upper-level low that's been spinning over the Great Lakes for the past few days will be replaced by another trough that should dig even deeper than the current one. At the surface this will push quite a cold front through the region on Friday, which will bring in much drier air from the northwest and cooler temperatures. We're talking dew points into the 40's (60 is considered humid) over the weekend with overnight lows getting into the 40's in most locations around Mississippi and Tennessee. It will take until the middle of next week to regain some of the humidity as this trough moves east and a ridge builds in. Until then, enjoy the clear, crisp, and cool days ahead!

Be sure and tune in to Good Morning West Tennessee on WBBJ ABC 7 this Saturday at 6 and 8am for my latest West Tennessee forecast. Should be a very nice weekend!

9/26 - 12:30pm - Mississippi State Forecast

2011-09-26T12:31:00.000-05:00

Last night there were four reports of tornadoes in Bolivar County, Mississippi. These were probably caused by two distinct tornadoes, one near Benoit and another that caused substantial damage to two department stores and a subdivision in Cleveland. Any severe weather that occurs today as a cold front pushes south will likely stay near the I-20 corridor, so Starkville and the surrounding area should continue to see some pop-up spots of drizzle and mist throughout today and tomorrow. This front will stay stationary tomorrow, but once it pushes out of the region by Wednesday we'll clear out the clouds and drizzle here in Starkville. Check the video below for more details:

9/25 - 2:45pm - A Full Saturday at WBBJ

2011-09-25T14:37:00.001-05:00

Yesterday I did weather on the 6am and 8am Good Morning West Tennessee shows and the 6pm and 10pm newscasts at WBBJ. It's always great to be able to fill-in for other shows, but boy I was bushed after such a full day, especially since I'm still recovering from a bout with bronchitis! The forecast was a bit of a challenge since rain showers unexpectedly formed yesterday well ahead of the cold front that is to pass through early tomorrow morning. Severe storms are still expected this afternoon around West Tennessee and then things should clear out nicely for the workweek. Check out the videos below to see a couple samples of my forecasts from yesterday.

This weekend's shows were a bit different visually because they were produced from our brand new control room (see below) inside our just-completed sales and production building. All the new equipment allows us to now broadcast in-studio camera shots in 16:9 widescreen, so you're getting a much fuller picture compared to what we had before. The studio and newsroom are both under heavy construction right now, so you'll likely see some major changes in those in the coming months too. We're all pretty excited to see what the future has in store for the station!

9/19 - 12:45pm - Rain's Coming Our Way!

2011-09-19T12:37:00.002-05:00

After seeing some showers this morning, more rain in on its way to Starkville. Scattered showers and storms will continue through tomorrow with a small break thrown in on Tuesday evening before more storms push through on Wednesday and Thursday. Check out your latest forecast in the video below:

9/17 - 3:30pm - Spotty Showers in West Tennessee

2011-09-17T15:25:00.000-05:00

We saw a few showers across West Tennessee this morning, but as expected they've mostly cleared out of the area for the afternoon. More showers are possible tomorrow, but the big show (relatively speaking) arrives on Monday with some appreciable rain chances as a cold front approaches the region. Check out my forecasts from last night's 10pm show and this morning's Good Morning West Tennessee newscast on WBBJ below:

9/12 - 2:30pm - MSU Forecast Update

2011-09-12T14:34:00.000-05:00

Those pop-up showers and storms around North Mississippi yesterday won't see the light of day this afternoon, leaving us with warmer temperatures and sunny skies. Tomorrow will be the same story, but Wednesday will be a transition day of clouds and a small chance for rain as a cold front approaches the region. The end of the workweek, which includes a football game against LSU on Thursday, could be a bit wet as the front pushes through. Check out your latest Mississippi State forecast in the video below:

9/10 - 2:30pm - Quiet Weather in West Tennessee, GMWT Video

2011-09-10T14:32:00.000-05:00

All is quiet in West Tennessee save for some scattered showers and possibly a storm that could form later this afternoon. Tomorrow's forecast looks fairly similar with temperatures running a couple degrees or so warmer. Once Monday rolls around, the upper-level low causing these shower chances should move east out of the area and completely sunny skies will take over. Rain chances will increase yet again during the middle part of next week. Check out the video below for a complete forecast:

I want to give a shout-out to anchor Will Nunley, who is leaving WBBJ today for other opportunities.

The tropics are active this weekend, but not for the United States. Tropical Storm Nate is tracking into Mexico and Tropical Storm Maria is recurving out to sea on what is historically the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic. The season runs until November 30th.

9/4 - 12:30pm - Yesterday's GMWT Video, TS Lee Update

2011-09-04T11:31:00.004-05:00

Yesterday we began airing Good Morning West Tennessee for an additional hour starting at 8am. This means the Saturday show is now two hours, from 6-7am and again at 8-9am with Good Morning America airing in between. The forecast for West Tennessee still looks very wet today into tomorrow because of Tropical Storm Lee, but I think the rain should clear out as Labor Day rolls along. Check out some video from yesterday's broadcast below:

Lee is just hanging on to tropical storm status and should be downgraded to a depression later today as it moves inland. Just because it's weakening doesn't mean the risks from it will go away. Portions of Central Mississippi (I'm talking to you Starkville), Alabama, and even up through the Appalachian Mountains in North Carolina could see over eight inches of rain between now and Tuesday. Flooding is obviously a concern, so use caution while driving in these areas. Turn around, don't drown!

Tornadoes are also continuing a problem with Lee. There were 10 reports of tornadoes yesterday, some causing damage, along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. Two tornado watches are in effect with about a half dozen warnings in them from Mississippi to Florida. The tornado risk from Lee should lessen as it continues to come onshore tonight and tomorrow.

8/29 - 3:15pm - First Day of Broadcast Meteorology Lab

2011-08-29T15:12:00.001-05:00

Today was my first day of broadcast meteorology lab here at Mississippi State. Most of you probably realize that I have a bit of a head start in this class, but there is always something to learn and I really enjoy helping others learn in a field that I love so much. Each of us started out the semester with an informal "first forecast" to break the ice and get those first-time jitters out of the way. Check out my forecast below:

It's not bad out there in Starkville today since those dewpoints are staying around 60 degrees and lower. We'll see a gradual return to the high humidity after tomorrow as Gulf moisture begins to filter back into the region. About the most exciting thing that will happen this week, excitement being used relatively here, is an upswing in rain chances toward Friday and the weekend as a cold front approaches from the north.

8/25 - 4:15pm - Hurricane Irene's Fever Pitch

2011-08-25T16:16:00.000-05:00

Hurricane Irene is certainly causing some drama both over the airwaves and along the East Coast where thousands are preparing for what could be that area's first hurricane strike in a while. This will also be the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Ike in 2008. States of emergency have been declared by the governors of North Carolina, Virginia, New Jersey, Maryland, and New York as the storm takes aim at the region. Areas from Wilmington, North Carolina to Cape Hatteras to Norfolk, Virginia will likely take the brunt of Irene as it makes landfall as a Category 2 or 3 storm on Saturday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the entire North Carolina coast and a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Virginia to New Jersey. On the satellite image to the top left you'll notice that Irene does not have a very apparent eye. This is because the storm has just completed an eyewall replacement cycle, which temporarily limits both the strength of the storm and the appearance of an eye. The eye will likely become much easier to see over the next 24 hours and the intensity of the storm will correspondingly increase.

The National Hurricane Center's 5pm EDT outlook for Hurricane Irene has the storm at Category 3 status with winds of 115 mph. For Tuesday and most of yesterday, it looked like Irene was going to miss much of the East Coast and curve back out to sea, but last night's and today's computer model runs have adjusted the storm's track quite a bit westward. This means hurricane force winds will be felt across a much larger portion of the North Carolina, Virginia coasts and even through to the Northeast and Delmarva Peninsula. To the right is a "spaghetti chart" showing all the computer model forecast tracks for Irene. There's a strong possibility that Irene may still be a Category 1 hurricane packing winds in excess of 75 mph and a storm surge up to 15 feet when it hits the New Jersey Shore, New York City, and Long Island areas on Sunday. While hurricanes that affect the Northeast aren't all that rare, the particular track of Irene and the intensity possible as it hits the area are causing great concern, especially about flooding. Folks from North Carolina to New England really need to pay attention to this storm this weekend and evacuate when instructed.

8/20 - 2:15pm - My Return to WBBJ!

2011-08-20T14:07:00.001-05:00

This morning I did weather on WBBJ-TV ABC 7 for the first time since April. It's great to be back after a long summer break! Showers and storms that sank southward from Missouri stayed together longer than expected, so a few light showers crossed into West Tennessee earlier this afternoon along with stronger storms in the Memphis area. Additional scattered storms are possible throughout the afternoon and evening before more widespread storms cross through the region tonight through tomorrow. The passage of a cold front will mean an end to the rain by Sunday night and give way to a rather nice day on Monday. Daily storm chances are back in the forecast by mid week. Check out my forecast from this morning in the video below:

8/15 - 6pm - Severe Weather Craziness Back Home

2011-08-15T17:48:00.001-05:00

Radar image from NWS Louisville

Saturday's severe weather in Louisville put many LG&E customers without power as winds exceeding 60 mph hit the city. At its peak the storm caused over 128,000 customers to lose power in Louisville, but that number has now dwindled down to 23,000. On radar it appears the storm may have bowed outward a bit due to the strong winds pushing ahead of it, and downbursts were likely the cause of much of the heavy damage in central parts of the city. Folks in Southeastern Jefferson County near the Jeffersontown, Middletown, Fisherville, and even down to Bullitt County saw a bit of a scary sight as the leading edge of the storm produced an arcus or shelf cloud. While not dangerous on its own this cloud often marks the leading edge of the gust front in a thunderstorm, which can carry damaging winds. Check out my photo from my back yard below:

With some schools still lacking power, Jefferson County Public Schools has cancelled classes tomorrow after already cancelling the first day of school for the academic year today. I'm not sure if JCPS has ever canceled the first day of school before, but this is certainly not the first time they've had to cancel due to power outages (wind storm of September '08 and major ice storm of January '09 are prime examples). A couple more nice weather days in Louisville will help with power restoration and tree clearing efforts.

Mississippi State Weather

I'm back at Mississippi State University for the semester and classes begin on Wednesday. The humidity been much lower in Starkville today since the passage of a cold front yesterday. Unfortunately reality will gradually return this week as temperatures surge back into the 90's and humidity increases as return flow transports Gulf moisture northward again. Daily small afternoon storm chances will return on Thursday or so.

Return to TV in Jackson, TN

If you're in Jackson, TN or the surrounding West Tennessee region, you'll want to tune into WBBJ ABC 7 this Saturday morning at 6am as I make my return to the Good Morning West Tennessee Saturday newscast. It's been about four months since my last show there due to my month-long storm chasing trip and time back home in Louisville, so I'm itching to get back to what I love doing most. We'll be bringing you weather updates every 10 minutes along with the morning's top news stories and events that you need to know about to get your weekend started!

8/11 - 10pm - Cooler Weather Comes at a Price

2011-08-11T20:52:00.001-05:00

SE Louisville Webcam

How about that cool down going on around the Ohio Valley? Great, isn't it? We topped out at 83 degrees just before 3pm this afternoon in Louisville. The sky was very blue today due to dry air present both aloft and here at the surface. Tomorrow should feature more of the same with slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 80's and pleasant sunshine. That's where the good news ends.

Trough position by Sunday AM

On Saturday a gargantuan trough of low pressure is going to punch its way into the Eastern US. This will disrupt our tranquil weather pattern quite a bit as conditions become favorable for a couple areas of severe storms to form. The first line of storms will likely come through during the early to mid morning hours as the trough begins to dig in and southerly surface winds bring in the initial Gulf moisture. These probably won't be too bad, but frequent lightning, heavy rain, and a few wind gusts appear to be in the cards. Depending on how long these morning storms and their clouds stick around during the later morning and afternoon hours, we could be dealing with a considerable severe weather threat later Saturday afternoon or evening as a the associated surface cold front moves through the region. If dew points do indeed recover into the mid to upper 60's during the day on Saturday and we're able to get a good helping of sunlight, Saturday night will be rough. The storms that could roll through will pack damaging winds and a flash flood risk. I cannot rule out a tornado or two embedded in some of these storms in the evening because of the wind shear that this sharp trough will be ushering in. The biggest risk for severe weather will cover Louisville and points eastward according to the National Weather Service. (Below: Saturday morning storms on the left, Saturday evening severe storms on the right.)

The Storm Prediction Center says the severe risk around the Ohio Valley is conditional at this point due to uncertainty with cloud cover and moisture return to the area (both very valid points), but these factors likely won't be known until Saturday's morning storms clear out. Nevertheless, they've issued a Slight Risk for severe weather for areas just southeast of Louisville and mention that more areas might be added.

After Saturday, I'm off to Mississippi State University for another semester of classes, most of which will be weather-related this time around (yes!). I'm returning to WBBJ-TV in Jackson, TN on August 20th to begin again my Saturday morning weather shift on Good Morning West Tennessee. I've missed my job at ABC 7 like crazy over the summer break, so going back there will be very exciting!

8/7 - 5:15pm - More Storms in Our Future

2011-08-07T16:15:00.002-05:00

Did the storms in Louisville wake you up this morning? I slept through them, which is probably a good thing because those that couldn't sleep through them early this morning sure looked tired today. Locations near Downtown Louisville saw rainfall amounts exceed one inch this morning, but most of the suburbs and outlying areas received under an inch. Click the image on the left from NWS Louisville to see a complete map of the rainfall totals from this morning. More storms are possible this afternoon and especially tomorrow as a cold front to our north provides a focus for development.

I've been watching the radar and satellite image for the past couple hours and it appears that ongoing storms dropping southeastward near Indianapolis may send out a some outflow boundaries toward Louisville over the next few hours. Outflow boundaries are like miniature cold fronts created by the cool air flowing out from a thunderstorm's downdraft. They also can cause storms to develop because they are a source of lift and that's why they're so important when forecasting short-term storm development. Since we have a little bit of wind shear and a very unstable atmosphere over the Louisville area right now, a kick from one of these southward-moving outflow boundaries may cause a few isolated storms to develop this evening. Storms may also form without the boundary if another small-scale feature or surface heating gets things going first. So, a vast majority of the area will stay dry, but if you happen to get under one of these wildcard isolated storms get ready for some heavy rain and wind.

There's a much better chance for storms tomorrow as a shortwave disturbance moves through the region. These storms will likely cluster together into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System - complex of storms) and severe weather is possible. These scattered or MCS storms will roll through Louisville sometime tomorrow late afternoon or evening. Damaging winds, frequent lightning, and small hail will be the main threats from these storms. If they cluster together in a line, wind damage probabilities will be higher. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Kentucky, including Louisville, in a 30% Slight Risk area for severe weather tomorrow due to these factors.

8/4 - 11:30am - Finally, a Break in Sight!

2011-08-04T10:26:00.002-05:00

Ridge breaking at 500mb on Wed.

The weather here in Louisville is about the same as when I left it last week on vacation in California! The good thing is that a cold front that came through yesterday will keep temperatures in the lower 90's today, as opposed to mid 90's for the last few days, and the humidity will be a little less oppressive. That said, daily afternoon storm chances will increase tomorrow and especially Saturday when an area of surface low pressure will pass right over us. That low and the accompanying cold front will finally begin the breakdown of this hot, humid ridge that we've been stuck under for so long, but not before some higher heat and humidity sneaks its way into the region for the weekend. Temperatures will be in the 80's next week as this pattern breaks, which could be temporary at best if some of the long-range models are to be believed.

So far we've had 40 days with highs at 90 or above in Louisville, with 18 consecutive days at 90 or above on our current streak. At this point last year we were counting 46 days in the 90's so far, so it seems this summer is a fairly close repeat of last.

Talk of development in the tropics has come to a fever pitch lately as Tropical Storm Emily seems to be taking a path that will pass very close to the southeast coast of Florida. The forecast path has been flip flopping around a little bit over the last couple of days, but at least right now it appears that Florida will not see a landfall from this storm. Emily has sustained winds at 50 mph, which is still a ways from the 74 mph needed to be declared a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center's forecast includes Emily reaching hurricane status by Monday well off the coast of South Carolina.

7/24 - 4pm - 2011 Great Plains Storm Chase Video

2011-07-24T14:59:00.003-05:00

From May 7th to June 4th this year I had the privilege of again being a tour guide with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours, a company I've worked with for four years. We traveled well over 10,000 miles during my time in the Great Plains and saw numerous supercell thunderstorms with wall clouds and even a few funnel clouds. There were also a few episodes when we came very close to tornadoes, with one touching down right in front of us at night in South Dakota. Check out my "mini documentary" video of all the things I saw this year below or on my storm chasing page at RyanHoke.com:

This video is available in 720p or 1080p HD

7/23 - 1:15pm - Heat Continues, No End in Sight

2011-07-23T12:16:00.000-05:00

The entrenched heat we've had over the eastern half of the nation has been making headlines for quite some time now and it appears that it will continue for a while more. The strong ridge of hot, stagnant air is staying firmly in place and most forecast models are keeping it over the same area for at least the next week or two. A big portion of the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast is covered in heat advisories and warnings, which you'll see shaded in orange and purple on left.

Around Louisville, temperatures are going to stay in the 90's for the foreseeable future. For some perspective, we're hotter right now than Jackson, MS, Birmingham, AL, Memphis, TN, Jackson, TN, and Nashville, TN. Cloud cover, surface winds bringing in cooler air, and easterly flow aloft is keeping these locations cooler than Louisville even though they're all to the south. This really highlights the Midwest and Plains as being the primary target for the heatwave since we have been and will continue to be feeding off of the entrenched hot air from those regions.

A few pop-up showers and storms are possible today in Louisville, but a bigger chance for storms comes tomorrow as a "cool" front approaches the area that will cross through on Monday. I think tomorrow afternoon and evening will be the best time period for storms, most likely lasting into the early part of Monday. Behind this "cool" front temperatures won't really drop much, but dew points will take a tumble.

Check out the dew point output from the GFS for early Wednesday on the left. Those dew points are a good 15 degrees lower than the average this week and that translates to markedly lower humidity. That won't last long though... higher dew points with the same old hot temperatures will be back before the weekend. Until then, remember that an Excessive Heat Warning continues for the Louisville area until Sunday night. Stay safe!

7/21 - 2pm - Enough Excessive Heat to Go Around

2011-07-21T13:08:00.004-05:00

93° in Louisville is hot on its own, but when you couple that with a very high 77° dew point (which puts relative humidity at 60%), you're talking about a heat index of 107°. We're well on our way to a high near 97° this afternoon. It's just hot. An Excessive Heat Warning, on left shaded in purple, remains in effect for the entire Louisville area until Saturday night as heat index values soar past 110° during the maximum heating of the day. Regardless of where you're from and the weather you're used to, your body cannot sustain itself in the hot, humid air we have in Louisville and much of the Midwest right now. Be sure to drink plenty of water and limit your activity outside this week to avoid heat-related illness.

Heat Index?

NC State Climate Office

I've been mentioning the term heat index for weeks now, so what exactly is the heat index you ask? Most people know it as the "feels like" temperature or what it feels like because of the humidity. That's basically it in a nutshell, but there's more to it. Mathematically, the heat index is a product of an equation that uses temperature and relative humidity. Factors like perspiration and body size averages are held constant, so the heat index is an educated guess at the "temperature" that most people are feeling. Don't let the "educated guess" usage fool you though, because higher humidity and in turn heat index values lessen the amount of evaporational cooling on your skin. If your body can't cool properly through this evaporation, you can overheat quite easily. It's interesting and useful to note that heat index values are based on what it feels like in the shade. Being in the sun can increase the heat index by up to 15°. Below is a table from NWS Pueblo, CO with heat index values and associated heat disorders:

With the heat we'll have a chance for afternoon scattered storms, which will increase significantly as we get closer to the passage of a cold front on Monday. Today's storms have been and should be staying south of Louisville, so we'll see no relief from the heat today!

7/18 - 12pm - Heat, Storms on the Way this Week

2011-07-18T10:59:00.000-05:00

Many areas across Louisville saw heavy rain yesterday as scattered storms slowly made their way through the area. A setup like that will likely happen this afternoon as well with storms again coming from the north. Any chance of severe storms will stay to our north as the ingredients for this will be in better supply. Look for a high just over 90 degrees this afternoon in the city and a degree or two lower in the suburbs.

Disturbance over IN at 700mb

Tomorrow will be a different story. A small upper-level disturbance will be swinging our direction around a high centered in the Midwest. This should spawn an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System - a big complex of storms) in the afternoon that will move our way from the northwest. The whole evolution of the MCS and exactly who it will affect most is still murky at this point, but it seems the parameters for severe weather will be in place and the SPC has issued a 15% Slight Risk for the region. Damaging winds from bowing segments and even a few spin-up tornadoes are possible with this MCS tomorrow, so be on the lookout for warnings as they're issued.

Let's not forget about the heat! The National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Watch along and west of I-65 from Tuesday afternoon to Friday evening due to heat index values reaching up to 110 degrees. Actual forecast highs in Louisville will be in the mid to upper 90's throughout the week, so get ready for an extended heat wave. Humidity won't be as extreme as last week, but even so we'll be seeing dew points getting into the mid 70's near the latter part of the week. Uncomfortable humidity starts with a 60 degree dew point, so you can imagine that mid 70's are pretty bad!

7/16 - 11am - Heat Building Back In

2011-07-16T10:10:00.002-05:00

Ridge over Central US on Wednesday

It's been cooler and quiet over the past couple of days in Louisville with temperatures around and just below 90. That's going to change fast though as a hot and dry upper-level ridge begins to build into the eastern half of the nation next week. Today and tomorrow don't look particularly bad with temperatures in the low 90's and a slight chance of some afternoon pop-up thunderstorms

Thursday Eve. temperatures (GFS)

By Monday we'll be talking temperatures in the mid 90's and not a chance of rain in sight. The warming temperatures aloft with this ridge will limit instability for thunderstorm development significantly. Surface features like fronts will also be very hard to come by once this thing moves over us, so there won't be a trigger for storms either. What this means is that while the heat is building in we won't have any relief via the normal summertime afternoon storms that form. The compounding of the heat and dry air over the course of next week could send our temperatures to the 100 degree mark for the first time this season. Humidity-wise next week won't be as bad as it was earlier this week with dew points exceeding 80 degrees, but dew points in the mid 70's, still very humid, are possible especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. Below is some raw data from the GFS MOS output, which is basically a combination of numerical and statistical weather models. This output usually runs a degree or two on the warm side this time of year, but I've highlighted the warmest temperatures of the week in red and highest dew points in green:

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KSDF   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   7/16/2011  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|
 SAT  16| SUN 17| MON 18| TUE 19| WED 20| THU 21| FRI 22|
 X/N  89| 73  93| 75  95| 78  96| 79  98| 78  99| 78  97|
 TMP  85| 75  88| 77  90| 80  91| 81  92| 80  93| 80  91|
 DPT  69| 70  69| 72  70| 75  74| 75  72| 72  71| 71  70| 
 CLD  PC| PC  PC| CL  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| 
 WND   6|  6   7|  6   9|  9   9|  9   8|  7   8|  7   8|
 P12  24| 13  14|  7   9| 19  40| 27  20| 12  25| 14  19|
 P24    |     19|      9|     40|     40|     25|     34|
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  0    |
 Q24    |      0|      0|      1|      1|      0|       |
 T12  26|  8  32| 10  24| 37  49| 49  39| 29  28| 21  36|
 T24    | 30    | 40    | 50    | 71    | 49    | 44    |

Looks pretty hot doesn't it? A span of three or more 90 degree plus days is usually considered a heat wave, so I think we'll meet and exceed that definition easily. Next week will be a good time to take it easy and drink lots of fluids when working or playing outside. Here comes the heat!

7/12 - 10am - Another Day of Incredible Heat

2011-07-12T08:53:00.000-05:00

Here we go again. It's already 87° with a dew point of 81° in Louisville and we're just getting started. See that condensation on my door to the left? That started at 10pm last night when the temperature dropped a couple degrees and just now cleared up with sunlight and a bit of heating. That's some crazy humidity right there. I think we'll get near yesterday's high of 97 again today, but like yesterday the dew point is the bigger story. With such a high temperature and high dew point in the low 80's (which is almost unheard of in Louisville), heat index values will be exceeding 110° again. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued that goes from 11am this morning to 8pm this evening.

...But wait! There's more. We're under a Slight Risk from the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather this afternoon as a cold front approaches the area from the north. This is mainly a wind threat (notice the 30% wind risk red area on the right), but there's also a small chance for hail. A lack of wind shear and helicity (turning of the atmosphere) will eliminate any tornado threat for the most part. This front should be the trigger for some southward-moving clusters of scattered storms this afternoon. With all the heat energy and moisture in the area, there's no question that some of these could reach severe limits as the SPC indicates. Not everyone will see storms this afternoon, but those who do will receive quite a bit of rainfall, lightning, damaging wind, and a break from the heat. The cold front is positioned just south of Indianapolis right now and is moving fairly slow, so there will be quite a bit of time for storms to fire today and tonight before the front passes through sometime early tomorrow.

7/11 - 6:45pm - It's So Hot You Can (sorta) Fry an Egg!

2011-07-11T17:41:00.002-05:00

It's 96° outside in Louisville with a heat index of 114°, making this the hottest day of the year so far. This got me thinking: Is it hot enough to fry an egg outside? I grabbed an infrared thermometer (measures temperature without having to make contact with the surface) and did some tests to see how hot various surfaces around my house were. The wooden deck was 149.3°, the tan concrete of our patio was 130.6°, and our driveway was 129.5°. While all very hot surfaces with direct sunlight, the deck was a clear winner.

Now to the egg frying part. I didn't want to fry an egg on the surface of the wooden deck because it may stain it. So, I put a metal cookie sheet right on top of the deck surface. This not only protects the deck, but easily heats up in the direct sunlight. After a few minutes in the sun, the temperature of the cookie sheet with non-stick spray applied about equaled the temperature of the deck surface.

Since the refrigerator at my house was void of eggs, I poured out the one-egg equivalent of egg beaters, the made-from-eggs substitute that you find at the grocery store, into a measuring cup. This may have thrown my results a bit, but hey, this is supposed to be fun right? Once the cup of egg beaters warmed to the ambient air temperature (around 96°), I poured it out on to the cookie sheet.

The results were interesting. I spread the liquid eggs around on the pan to resemble a flat pancake or crepe to increase surface area for heating. After a few minutes the edges of this "pancake" turned crispy and the middle became a thicker liquid with solid "chunks" (yeah, don't read this if you're getting ready to eat dinner) embedded in it. The surface of the deck was cooling down just before five o'clock, so this marked the end of the experiment. Had the temperature outside been a little hotter, and hence the deck a little warmer, it could have cooked more thoroughly. The temperature of a safely cooked egg is about 160°. Check out the video below to see the end result:

Today felt so hot because the dew point was near or at 80° for a good portion of the afternoon. That's a rare occurrence and signals the presence of an intense amount of moisture in the air. Humid is an adjective that doesn't even describe how it felt. Tomorrow should be almost as hot with the high topping out near 93 and heat indices near 110. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue another Heat Advisory from 1pm to 8pm tomorrow. A "cold" front accompanied by a little southward dip in the jet stream (a trough) will increase scattered thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon in Louisville. The Storm Prediction Center places us under a Slight Risk for severe weather, mainly due to the threat for some hail and strong winds. The chance for storms could continue into Wednesday morning as the front passes through, but the lack of surface heating should suppress most of the development. We should dry out for the rest of the week with highs near 90. Stay cool out there!

7/10 - 3:30pm - Heat Advisories and Warnings

2011-07-10T14:34:00.000-05:00

The hottest days of summer are yet to come, with today and tomorrow being just the start. A ridge of high pressure has locked itself into the eastern half of the nation, and many are feeling its hot and humid effects. It's 91° at Louisville International Airport, 88° in the southeastern suburbs of Louisville, 91° in Bowling Green, KY, and 95° in Jackson, TN as of 3pm EDT/2pm CDT. Doesn't take me to tell you that those are some hot readings! Areas near the Louisville area have been placed under a Heat Advisory until 8pm tomorrow while areas to the west of Owensboro have been placed under a more strongly-worded Excessive Heat Warning. Highs in Louisville could reach near 96° tomorrow with heat indices ("feels like" temperatures) up to 110.

Most of West Tennessee is under an Excessive Heat Warning until tomorrow at 10pm. Jackson could get up to 100 tomorrow with Memphis easily passing into the triple digits. Heat indices near or above 110 are expected, so limit your time outside if possible and drink lots of water.

As a trough and associated "cool" front dip down from the north, we should see chances for storms enter the forecast by Tuesday, which will help to break the heat a bit. While more scattered in Tennessee, Kentucky will likely see a good helping of storms during Tuesday afternoon and evening, some of which may be strong. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Kentucky (including the Louisville area) under a Slight Risk for severe storms. I don't think there will be much, if any, of a tornado and hail threat from these, but gusty winds could present some issues across the region.

7/8 - 3:30pm - Here Comes the Sun!

2011-07-08T14:28:00.000-05:00

It's been a rainy one around Louisville today. The airport has had .45", my house in Southeast Louisville received .88", and Shelbyville got .72" of rain since midnight. Bullitt, Hardin, and Meade Counties in Kentucky all received well over an inch of rain, but Frankfort is the winner coming in at 2.13" since midnight. Check out some of the rain amounts since midnight in the map below from the Kentucky Mesonet. The clouds are still hanging around just east of Louisville, but Louisville and westward is seeing some sunshine. That trend should continue eastward as the afternoon goes on. There's a chance that some scattered storms could redevelop later today around the area, so a few locations could receive more rain today before the cold front triggering these storms moves south.

Sunshine and warmer temperatures will be the rule this weekend around Kentuckiana. High pressure will keep the clouds out of the picture through Monday and temperatures above 90 degrees are a sure bet until then as well. Monday will likely be the hottest day (low to mid 90's) in the near future before another front approaches the area and increases afternoon storm chances yet again.

7/5 - 6pm - Scattered Storms in Louisville

2011-07-05T16:59:00.001-05:00

Hope everyone had a great Independence Day! Some scattered small thundershowers have popped up across the Louisville Metro area this afternoon with the heating of the day. These will likely stay well below severe limits, but watch out for some heavy rain and a few lightning strikes as they move very slowly through the city.

More storms like this are possible tomorrow afternoon through Friday with severe weather chances remaining very low. We should be completely dry this weekend in Louisville as a surface front slides to our south and an upper-level ridge slides in from the west.

7/3 - 12:30pm - Fantastic Fourth Forecasts

2011-07-03T11:30:00.003-05:00

A cold front sliding southward through Indiana and Kentucky this morning has triggered some thunderstorms in Southwest Indiana that likely won't make it to the Louisville area this afternoon, but more storms could develop later on. While any storm that forms this afternoon could have heavy rain, lightning, and some gusty winds, most if not all will stay below severe limits. Temperatures are already in the upper 80's around the Louisville area, so a high near 93 today looks good at this point.

How about those Fourth of July forecasts? Hot and humid will be the rule for most locations, but scattered afternoon thunderstorms covering quite a large area could drench a few of those outdoor barbecues. The storms will be large in coverage due to a trough hanging around the eastern half of the US and a stationary front near the Ohio River.

Here are some Independence Day forecasts for selected regional locations from the National Weather Service:

Louisville, KY: Partly Sunny | 89 degrees | 40% afternoon storms
Lexington, KY: Partly Sunny | 86 degrees | 40% afternoon storms
Evansville, IN: Mostly Cloudy | 87 degrees | 50% afternoon storms
Indianapolis, IN: Mostly Sunny | 85 degrees
Cincinnati, OH: Partly Sunny | 86 degrees | 20% afternoon storms
Jackson, TN: Mostly Sunny | 93 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Memphis, TN: Mostly Sunny | 95 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Nashville, TN: Mostly Cloudy | 92 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Knoxville, TN: Partly Sunny | 91 degrees | 40% afternoon storms
Tupelo, MS: Mostly Sunny | 96 degrees | 20% afternoon storms
Starkville, MS: Mostly Sunny | 96 degrees | 20% afternoon storms
Jackson, MS: Mostly Sunny | 97 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Birmingham, AL: Partly Sunny | 94 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Atlanta, GA: Mostly Sunny | 94 degrees | 50% afternoon storms

6/29 - 11am - Quiet Weather is Back!

2011-06-29T10:01:00.000-05:00

After what seemed like an endless parade of storms and severe weather across Kentucky, Indiana, and Tennessee, calmer weather is in place and we'll enjoy the fruits of that for most of this week. High pressure centered just east of the Cincinnati area will provide nearly cloudless skies and a rain-free forecast until the weekend. Sounds more like the summertime forecast you were looking for, doesn't it?

We'll also see a break from the humidity, with dew points staying between 45-60 degrees until Saturday. A dew point of 60 is considered to be uncomfortable humidity-wise, so things should stay just below that threshold. Dew points and storm chances, more of the summer-like pop-up variety instead of the spring severe outbreak, will be increasing this weekend and into next week. July 4th looks hot with temperatures in the lower 90's and a slight thunderstorm chance in the afternoon throughout much of the region.

6/27 - 11:15am - More Severe Weather for KY and IN

2011-06-27T10:17:00.004-05:00

Had enough storms already? We have one more round to go before we clear things out for a while around Kentucky and Indiana. A few non-severe storms have already moved through the Louisville area this morning and the storms that are still well off to the west are weakening and beginning to take a more southerly turn.

The bit of clearing we'll see this afternoon after this morning's storms pass off to the east should help to destabilize the atmosphere in preparation for development of severe storms this afternoon. If this clearing doesn't materialize and we stay more cloudy than sunny across the area, the severe threat will be much lower. These storms should fire up in the mid afternoon across southwest Indiana and Western Kentucky and impact the Louisville area this evening. While most of these will be your run-of-the-mill severe storms with 60mph winds and hail, a few could have supercell structures or bowing segments. The embedded or isolated supercell structures will be powered by the small amount of wind shear (changing wind direction and speed with height - see 5pm NAM model output left) and helicity (turning in the atmosphere) we'll have in the area as storms form. This means a couple isolated tornadoes are possible.

The bowing segments could produce wind damage as a cold pool of air collects behind some of the more linear storms. These storms will likely last well into the evening and overnight hours and be out of the Louisville area by mid morning tomorrow or earlier. Since there is the risk for wind damage and an isolated tornado or two, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk area for most of Kentucky, Southern Indiana, and portions of Middle Tennessee. A 5% tornado risk exists from Chicago and St. Louis to along the Ohio River, while a 2% risk extends further southward.

6/25 - 2:45pm - Tomorrow's Entertainment: An MCS

2011-06-25T13:42:00.004-05:00

An MCS or Mesoscale Convective System is scheduled to move through Kentucky and Indiana tomorrow morning. An MCS is basically a large cluster of storms that normally has a distinct wind-driven line of strong to severe storms on the east side as it pushes along at a decent speed. Tornadoes can sometimes form in little notches or "eddies" that develop in the strong line of storms on the east or leading side of the MCS. Given that there will be some helicity (turning in the atmosphere) from Indianapolis to Bowling Green, KY as the MCS moves through, it would not surprise me to see a Tornado Warning or two issued since there could be a little rotation aloft. This will not be a tornado event though and I expect the probability of tornadoes to remain low. This will not be an event like Wednesday when we had five tornado touchdowns in the area because we will not have supercells developing. The Louisville area can expect storms to start sometime around 7am and possibly last into the mid afternoon hours. While the initial line of storms in the morning could be strong or severe, heating during the day could intensify storms by around noon. The main threats from this complex of storms will be damaging winds (especially in the morning) and hail. The 12z NAM model run (top left) seems to have a good handle on the storms.

These storms will be driven by a mid-level shortwave trough, which is basically just a ripple or wave in the atmosphere, and a warm front rising northward. Once this warm front passes to our north tomorrow, we can expect temperatures to exceed 90 degrees again next week.

We're under a Slight Risk tomorrow from the Storm Prediction Center (left) and on the very southern edge of another one on Monday (right) since another line of storms may try to come through early in the day:

Be sure to scroll down and read my exhaustive post on the Louisville tornadoes that happened on Wednesday.

6/23 - Expecting the Unexpected: The Louisville Tornadoes

2011-06-23T20:53:00.131-05:00

A horse barn at Churchill Downs
Image: NWS WFO Louisville

The city of Louisville is recovering from an outbreak of tornadoes that even the most seasoned weather watchers didn't expect. As of this writing there have been four confirmed tornadoes (two EF-1's and two EF-2's) inside the Jefferson County/Louisville city limit. A fifth tornado in Harrison County, IN has been confirmed of EF-0 strength that started off the event. The iconic Churchill Downs received damage to barns, several power poles near the University of Louisville's Papa John's Cardinal Stadium were brought down, and buildings in Jeffersontown sustained damage along with massive tree damage as a result of three of the four tornado touchdowns in the county. Thankfully there were no reports of injuries or fatalities as these tornadoes ripped through a city containing three quarters of a million people.

Below is a rough map I've put together based on the NWS WFO Louisville storm survey page of the tornado tracks through Louisville . Purple tracks indicate EF-2 rated tornadoes (the indicated tornadoes only reached this strength briefly) and the red tracks indicate EF-1 rated tornadoes. Be sure to click the image for a larger view.

Timeline of Tornadoes

Information used in this section about each tornado can be found on NWS WFO Louisville's storm survey page.

Yesterday started off cloudy and even misting at times across the city as a cloud shield from overnight persisted well into the morning hours. The Storm Prediction Center had a Slight Risk for severe weather out for a good portion of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to Michigan, but this was a very conditional risk for Kentucky and Indiana because the cloud cover in the morning inhibited destabilization of the atmosphere. A cold front sagging southeastward from Indiana would be the trigger for any afternoon storms should they form as temperatures warmed. The clouds finally moved east of the Louisville area at around 2:30pm yesterday and temperatures topped 80 degrees by 3pm. By 6pm there were showers on the radar to the north of Louisville and a few specks on the radar to the west.

Just after 7:30pm a Tornado Warning was issued for Harrison County, IN and western portions of Jefferson County/Louisville because a tornado was spotted near Elizabeth, IN. The "storm" that triggered this warning was no more than a shower because it had no lightning strikes associated with it. I'll admit that I was skeptical of this tornado report because there was really no significant rotation on radar. I thought the report was an improper identification of moving scud clouds or even a gustnado. The storm seemed to weaken and spotters near the Shively area reported no funnel clouds, so the warning was allowed to expire. About ten minutes later the storm began to strengthen again in West Louisville and another Tornado Warning was issued just after 8pm for Jefferson County. Multiple reports of a tornado and associated damage began coming in from Churchill Downs around that time.
This time the storm had lightning and the visual tornadic hook echo with prominent rotation on radar, so it was clear at this point that this thing meant business. To the right is a radar image with the supercell and hook echo near Churchill Downs and below is the velocity data with the green/red couplet signifying where the rotation was at the time. Click either image to see a larger view:

This tornado strengthened briefly into an EF-2 with 120 mph winds near the intersection of Floyd and Central Avenue at the University of Louisville campus where the power poles came down. Here's a video from YouTube user kehdsh that was posted on the WAVE 3 Weather Facebook page this afternoon. It's a little far away, but it clearly shows the funnel cloud above and debris cloud on the ground near Churchill Downs. Note that a tornado does not need to have a visible funnel snaking all the way to the ground. The debris dust-up and tube near the ground verifies that a tornado is there. Watch the center of this video closely:

Bent light pole in Jeffersontown
Image: NWS WFO Louisville

The next three tornadoes to hit Louisville were actually from the same storm and you could argue that it was the same tornado that lifted and touched down three separate times. From 9:29pm to 9:41pm (a total of twelve minutes with two short breaks in between) these tornadoes pestered the Louisville incorporated city of Jeffersontown, the suburb of over 26,000 people in Jefferson

Tree on dentist office in Jeffersontown
Image: Ryan Hoke

County that I've lived on the southeastern fringe of for nearly ten years. The initial touchdown occurred in the neighborhood just behind (west of) the Meijer store on South Hurstbourne Parkway west of Jeffersontown. This is just due south of the Stonybrook Cinemas. The tornado continued eastward to downtown Jeffersontown and lifted at the St. Edward School and Church, causing EF-1 (95-100 mph winds) damage along the path. It dropped again just east of the school and went on to cause tree damage at Tully Elementary School and structural damage at an apartment complex and the Good Samaritan Center in downtown Jeffersontown. The Good Samaritan Center had EF-2 winds of 115 mph that tossed and flipped cars about 20 yards. The tornado then went on to cause significant damage at the industrial park just east of Jeffersontown before lifting again. It sat down again in the industrial park causing more warehouse damage and continued on toward the Gene Snyder Freeway (I-265) where it lifted just after damaging a bed and breakfast on Tucker Station Road. This storm wasn't as well-defined on radar as the Churchill Downs supercell because of the merger of multiple storms in the county. The embedded supercell structure with rotation was certainly there as you'll see with the red/green boundary of wind velocities north of the Jeffersontown dot in the image below:

Why it Happened

Caution: This section gets a little technical on the meteorology side of things.
I explain why I think tornadoes hit Louisville unexpectedly and in such a small area.

Nobody expected this rash of tornadoes in Louisville at all. This includes the National Weather Service, local media, and me. In my blog post yesterday morning I even stated: "The tornado risk for [Southern Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee] will be quite low." The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk with a 2% tornado risk area in the morning with mention of wind-driven linear storms possible across the Lower Ohio Valley. Later on in the day they issued a Mesoscale Discussion that indicated they may issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for a broad area from Cincinnati to Memphis if storms developed more, but they never did. Some folks are asking why they didn't issued a Tornado Watch as soon as the storms unexpectedly began producing a spotter-confirmed tornado in Central Louisville, especially when the tornado threat dragged on for roughly an additional two and a half hours. My guess is that the very small lead time they would give with the issued watch and the unknown end time for this already unexpected tornado outbreak led them to scrub any plans of issuing one. Not to mention that the watch would be extremely small given that tornadoes occurred across two counties. The National Weather Service office in Louisville did a very good job of handling all the reports and translating that information into warnings for folks in the path of these storms.

These storms formed in a highly speed-sheared environment meaning winds were very fast aloft, but much slower at the surface. The direction of the winds at the surface were forecast to be from the southwest according to most of the computer forecast models. Aloft at 18,000 ft the winds were forecast to be from about the same direction, but slightly more west. This means that there was little directional shear forecast, meaning the chances of storms rotating were slim. The setup was more favorable for damaging straight-line winds. Here's where things get interesting. At 2:43pm, surface observations showed southwest winds in Louisville as forecast. All is well, but watch that southerly wind vector (down-pointing flag) east of Evansville, IN in the top picture on the left. Just before 5pm this southerly surface wind vector is in Louisville as a south-southeast wind. This increased directional shear between the surface and 18,000 ft quite a bit. The timing also lines up with the development of small showers just to our west and north. The surface winds were from the south in Jefferson County between 5pm and just before 10pm. In between these times we had the tornado pandemonium in Louisville. The timing and location is just too perfect for these southerly winds to not be a contributing factor to this event. Low-level wind shear (the kind that produces tornadoes) would have been much higher in Jefferson County than the surrounding area with the surface wind out of the south given the winds aloft being from the southwest.

It's also interesting to note that the bulk shear output on SPC's mesoscale analysis had a 50 kt maximum right over Central Kentucky and Southern Indiana. I make no claim of being a research meteorologist, but this surface wind reasoning comes from my four years of chasing storms in the Plains and the experience I've gained from books on severe weather.

The RUC and NAM models yesterday morning did pick up on the fact that storms would indeed form in the afternoon near Louisville after the clouds cleared. The 12z RUC yesterday in particular seemed to pick out the linear nature of the storms that were to form less than twelve hours later. It was nowhere near perfect, but the timing and shape of the storms were in the ballpark. Check out the comparison of a live radar capture late last night and the aforementioned RUC reflectivity (simulated radar) output:

Finally, I wanted to point out that this all happened with less than 1500 J/kg of CAPE or instability. Usually you need a little more instability than that to get severe storms going, but I think the directional wind shear compensated for that. None of the other storms outside of the localized southerly winds around Louisville were severe. That plus the fact that we had a tornado touch down in Harrison County, IN (just west of Louisville) with little to no lightning present in the storm makes this a once-in-a-lifetime event that could have been much worse if people did not heed warnings. I'm extremely pleased that there were no reports of injuries or fatalities with these five tornadoes yesterday. Hopefully this event will be the last major population center to be hit by a tornado this year, which has seen tornadoes hit cities including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Joplin, MO, Oklahoma City, Springfield, MA, and now Louisville, KY.

Check out NWS WFO Louisville's storm survey page for more information on this tornado event.

6/22 - 10:30am - Damaging Winds and Hail Possible Today

2011-06-22T09:35:00.001-05:00

Storms will likely develop this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving cold front in Southwestern Indiana and Western Kentucky before moving eastward toward Louisville. With a lack of heating (we're only in the lower 70's across Kentucky and Tennessee this morning) and cloud cover present over much of the area, storms will likely take their time to form.

These factors will also limit the strength of the storms this afternoon. Some storms will be severe with damaging winds, but this won't be a knock-out drag-out derecho or giant bow echo. Instead, bowing segments with winds over severe criteria may be present in the line of storms that may form. Speaking of forming, the NAM and RUC computer models are in general agreement that storms will form after 3pm. The RUC, below, even has a linear shape to the storms much like the early morning NAM run had.

Again, this won't be a big severe weather outbreak but the potential for wind damage and possibly some hail exists in Southern Indiana and Kentucky near the Ohio River today. Further south in Tennessee the risk for wind damage won't be as great due to lesser wind shear, but scattered storms will develop with some becoming severe this afternoon. The tornado risk for all of these areas will be quite low. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather today from Michigan to Louisiana, so storms could affect a pretty large area.

6/21 - 12pm - First Day of Summer, Rounds of Severe Weather

2011-06-21T10:44:00.002-05:00

A few storms are moving northeastward through Kentucky and Tennessee right now. While not severe, these storms are moving through a very unstable environment (you can see the 2500 J/kg CAPE values on the right) and could reform or strengthen as the afternoon wears on. There's a Slight Risk for severe weather today across Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, and more because these strengthening storms could produce wind damage and hail later on today.

Today at 1:16pm EDT summer will officially begin. This marks the summer solstice, or the day when the sun shines at its northernmost point on the earth due to the planet's tilt. Appropriately, today will feature summer-like highs across the Southeast. Here are some of the highs this afternoon for selected cities:

Louisville: 90 Lexington: 89

Cincinnati: 88 Jackson, TN: 90

Nashville: 88 Memphis: 93

Knoxville: 93 Atlanta: 93

Birmingham: 93 Jackson, MS: 90

The heat will be breaking soon though because a cold front it scheduled to move through Kentucky and Tennessee late on Thursday. Above and behind this front is a upper-level low and trough that will trigger widespread severe storms across the Southeast on Wednesday. These storms could be supercells, which carry a tornado risk (not that big I think), and/or clusters with hail and high wind. The fast upper-level winds with the trough coupled with pretty high instability across the Lower Ohio Valley will provide a healthy environment for these storms, so be on the lookout tomorrow if you're in the Slight Risk area below:

6/18 - 1:30am - More Storms Today in KY and IN, Some Severe

2011-06-18T00:36:00.001-05:00

Storms are already forming very early this morning over Illinois near a stationary warm front and are forecast to move southeastward across Indiana and Kentucky later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Storms that pass through the Louisville area before lunchtime will have the potential to cause wind damage as they begin to feed off of some morning heating. This initial round of storms may stay to the west of Louisville and Lexington and instead focus more on the Evansville, IN area if the latest short-range models are correct. These precipitation outputs below are very general and rarely depict a perfectly precise forecast for where storms will set up, so take these with a big grain of salt:

NAM, RUC, and WRF precipitation forecasts for 11, 8, and 11am respectively

Computer models are also showing a blossoming of these storms in Kentucky and maybe some new ones in the afternoon as we add on more daytime heating. With wind shear coming into play (which is something that these storms today near the Ohio River didn't have to work with), we could be looking at an increased risk for severe weather both in the morning and afternoon hours. Since these storms will be linear and/or bunched together, tornadoes and severe hail should stay out of the picture for the most part. Wind will be the main threat with these storms, so you may want to secure that garbage can or any patio furniture that you may have sitting loose outside before tomorrow mid-morning if you live in Southern Indiana or Kentucky. Given the wind risk from these storms tomorrow, the Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Kentucky and Southern Indiana under a 30% Slight Risk for severe weather. Tennessee, save for extreme northeastern portions, should outside of the severe weather threat tomorrow. I'll be up bright and early tomorrow, so be sure to follow me on Twitter or Facebook for the latest updates as these storms approach the Ohio River!

A similar situation could unfold again tomorrow with severe weather (a Slight Risk has already been issued), but this time wind shear might be a bit more favorable for stronger storms that are more organized. The main risk again will be wind damage and possibly small hail from some of the stronger storms. Seems like late Spring is keeping things busy around the Lower Ohio Valley!

6/16 - 11:30pm - Severe Risk Tomorrow in the Ohio Valley

2011-06-16T22:29:00.003-05:00

An area of storms is expected to restrengthen south of a warm front in Illinois tomorrow morning as it moves southeastward. By the afternoon these storms should cross into the Lower Ohio Valley and affect the Louisville, Lexington, and Cincinnati areas. Some of these storms will have the capability of producing large hail and high winds. They also should remain linear or bunched together throughout the day due to a lack of wind shear, so the tornado threat will accordingly be low. Not everyone in the region will see storms though as coverage may remain low. The Storm Prediction Center's Slight Risk for severe weather stays north of the Tennessee border (which looks about right given what short range models are showing), so Indiana and Kentucky will be the target for this event. This won't be a big severe weather risk, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on tomorrow afternoon.

Storms (possibly severe) will be possible on Saturday and Sunday as well, so be ready for more storms if you're in Kentucky or Tennessee.

6/15 - 6:45pm - KY/IN/TN Severe Weather Update

2011-06-15T17:47:00.002-05:00

Severe weather has fired up across Kentucky, Indiana, and Tennessee this evening. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued that includes Louisville and Bowling Green, KY as storms that have fired to the west of these cities have gone severe. Storms north of Evansville, IN could hit the Louisville area this evening, but they will have to fight the loss of heat that they'll encounter once the sun goes down. Severe thunderstorm warnings are being issued for the big complex of storms in Middle and Southwest Tennessee, but nothing greatly impressive is happening down that way.

The Storm Prediction Center has extended today's Slight Risk area northward as the warm sector between the warm front and cold front where these storms are setting up has moved further north. I don't think we'll be dealing with a tornado problem from these storms, but some brief and benign upper-level rotation is possible. Hail, high wind, and heavy rain should be the main threats as they develop and move through Southern Indiana and Kentucky. The storm threat should subside before midnight in these areas.

6/15 - 11:15am - Heavy Rain and Severe Weather

2011-06-15T10:11:00.001-05:00

A line of heavy rain and lightning moved through the Louisville area this morning and another short burst or two of that could come through again as we approach the noon hour. None of this has been or is expected to be severe, but there's quite a bit of cloud-to-ground lightning in these storms.

The clouds associated with these storms moving through this morning will help to limit instability for severe storm development this afternoon in Louisville and Northern Kentucky. Storms will likely still form this afternoon and evening and move through much of the Lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee, but Southern Indiana, Louisville, and Lexington will probably miss a good chunk of the severe weather from these storms. Further south near Bowling Green, Nashville and points eastward will see a better risk for severe weather this afternoon as they already have some sunlight hitting the ground to build instability.

The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe storms for much of Kentucky, Tennessee, parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia today. With that entails a 5% risk for tornadoes in South Central Kentucky and Middle and East Tennessee.

6/13 - 10pm - Back from Bonnaroo, Storms This Week?

2011-06-13T20:56:00.000-05:00

I'm back from a very hot (temperature and music-wise) weekend at the Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival in Manchester, TN. It only rained briefly on Saturday evening, but the rest of the event was hot and dry. The heat created a couple of notable dust devils at the festival, one of which shook up the crowd for a few seconds as it ripped through one of the main arteries of the event area. It picked up nothing more than small debris (paper, cardboard, etc) but it was very well-formed and unfortunately didn't last long enough to get pictures. Even though the air quality deteriorated greatly throughout the weekend as the dusty air thickened, the festival was fantastic and the weather cooperated fairly well given the time of year.

Storms are in the forecast for Kentucky and Tennessee this week as an area of low pressure moves through the Plains and Midwest. An accompanying cold front will help to provide lift for severe thunderstorm development on Tuesday for much of Tennessee and Western Kentucky, with that threat shifting slightly eastward and northward to include the Louisville area on Wednesday. A warm front extending to the east of this low pressure area will serve as the northward extent of this severe weather threat on both days. On Wednesday it should be on or near the Ohio River, so areas south of that boundary (possibly Louisville) will have to watch out for damaging winds, hail, and maybe even an isolated tornado or two. My gut tells me this will be a linear/straight-line wind event on Wednesday for Louisville due to the west-northwest winds aloft coupled with east-southeast winds at the surface, but supercells certainly aren't out of the question in places that get a more westerly wind vector aloft. Also, temperatures aloft will likely be too cold to support much of an isolated supercell threat in Kentucky, so my thinking is that the tornado threat for this whole event will remain fairly low in the northern portion of the storm area. A supercell or two would be a little more likely in Tennessee, but still remains a small risk. In any case, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Slight Risk areas for severe weather on Tuesday and Wednesday (pictured left). The placement of the warm front on Wednesday will be a key factor in determining exactly where severe storms will form on Wednesday, so it's something to definitely keep an eye on!

6/8 - 8am - Bonnaroo!

2011-06-08T08:00:00.001-05:00

The Bonnaroo Music Festival begins Thursday in Manchester, Tennessee and I'll be there! This year's lineup features Arcade Fire, My Morning Jacket, Primus, and many more world-class bands and performers. Going to Bonnaroo? I have the latest forecast! As usual it look likes this year's festival will be hot and humid, but even more so this year because a bit of ridging in the atmosphere will build up heat to above average levels. There will be daily rain chances from summertime pop-up thunderstorms that will form during the afternoon, so be ready to get wet. These storms will be slow movers, so there could be some mud issues at the festival site should one of these develop and sit over Manchester. Here's a detailed forecast:

Thursday: 91 / 69         Sunny           20% T-Storms
Friday:       92 / 67     Sunny           30% T-Storms
Saturday:   91 / 68   Mostly Sunny    20% T-Storms
Sunday:   91 / 69     Mostly Sunny    30% T-Storms

The good news is that this heat may give just a little bit next week as the ridge we're under right now across the Southeast begins to break-down and move off. I think most locations in Kentucky and Tennessee will at least get below 90 for highs next week. Daily heat-induced thunderstorm chances will stick around, which is normal for this time of year. Summer may still be a couple weeks away, but the summer weather pattern is already in place!

6/4 - 4:30pm EDT - Another Great Storm Chasing Season

2011-06-04T15:30:00.001-05:00

I'm on the ground in Louisville having completed four weeks of storm chasing as a tour guide with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. This week (tour 5) was quite a long one as we traveled 3,287 miles across Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota. We intercepted two good supercells on this tour near Valentine, Nebraska and again just northeast of Minot, North Dakota. While neither of these produced a tornado, they were very picturesque and produced some great sunset pictures. Check out the map below for our route (ignore the sudden jog to Montana... my iPad had a glitch while it was recording our location yesterday):

This season overall has been very good. I've seen three funnel clouds, a rapidly rotating wall cloud in Kansas, and was within a couple miles of two invisible rain-wrapped tornadoes in Oklahoma. One of those tornadoes was rated an EF5 near El Reno, Oklahoma and unfortunately caused a great deal of damage and a few fatalities. The other tornado crossed I-35 in Moore, Oklahoma about a mile in front of us and threw some small debris and power lines into the roadway. Had these tornadoes not been rain-wrapped, they would've been in plain sight right in front of us. We also ran into the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV 2) of Discovery Channel fame, the TornadoVideos.net Dominator 1 and 2 vehicles, and The Weather Channel's Great Tornado Hunt chase team quite a bit over the past four weeks.

I want to extend a special thank you to all the viewers of this blog and those who have been following me on Twitter and Facebook over the past month. Being able to share this storm chasing experience with you has been one of my goals over the past four seasons and this year was better than ever thanks to advancements in mobile communications technology. I plan to return to Tornado Alley next year for another round of storm chasing and I'll let you know when I'll be out there as soon as my schedule solidifies.

This blog will return to it's ordinary state tomorrow, where I'll be reporting on weather news, meteorology, and a few odds and ends in between as usual. My next expedition will take me to the Bonnaroo Music Festival in Manchester, Tennessee next week, which I attend almost annually, so I'll be sure to post updates from that event on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!

6/3 - 11am CDT - Heading Back to Denver

2011-06-03T10:50:00.001-05:00

Yesterday we chased a very picturesque supercell storm northeast of Minot, North Dakota. While it didn't produce a tornado, the cloud formations in the storm were spectacular alone. The first cell we tried to intercept drifted into Canada, but the cell in the picture below stayed just south of the border and we were able to take quite a few pictures as the sun set. The only bad thing about this storm was that it occurred over the flooded fields of North Dakota, so the mosquito swarm was out in force (yes, I'm itching all over this morning). It was very difficult to even hold still for three seconds to take a picture because the mosquitos began covering and biting exposed skin almost immediately after getting out of the van. Keep that in mind as you're viewing the photos below.

It was quite an experience yesterday since most of us haven't been that far north in the contiguous 48 states before. Our overnight stay in North Dakota means a long (700 mile +) trip to Denver, Colorado to day so that we can pick up our next tour group and say goodbye to our guests on tour 5. Sadly, this is also the end of the road for me this season. I'll be flying back to Louisville tomorrow afternoon so that I can spend some time with my family this summer. It's been a great run and I'll post a quick wrap-up of this week's chase and my whole trip here either later tonight or tomorrow.

6/2 - 10:45am CDT - South Dakota Today, Not Looking Very Promising

2011-06-02T10:40:00.001-05:00

We saw a small supercell last night near Valentine, Nebraska with a very picturesque sunset behind it. Since there were no road networks in the area we had to stay a good distance away from it and unfortunately it didn't last long either. If it had developed a couple hours earlier it would've been a big storm!

I'm no fan of today's severe weather setup in South Dakota. The main thing this morning that throws up red flags is the cirrus cloud shield over much of the state. This isn't something that burns off during afternoon heating, but is rather persistent. This shield will act to limit instability this afternoon and could keep storms from firing until after dark or not at all. Dew points at the surface are a bit marginal this morning and it's not a sure thing that they'll recover this afternoon because of computer model issues lately. We won't get a true east wind for good low-level wind shear either, so that's another thing to throw in the bin of issues.

Nevertheless, we're going to drive up to south-central South Dakota (short drive) and wait there to see how things develop. Maybe Mother Nature will surprise us. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk area out for much of South Dakota, but that may be in jeopardy right now based on current conditions.

6/1 - 10am CDT - Moving South Today

2011-06-01T10:00:00.001-05:00

We're ready for storms today after a long drive back south from Detroit Lakes, MN yesterday. We started the day in Oacoma, SD and are headed westward to catch a southern route near Murdo, SD. We expect to keep heading south through Nebraska until we see a good spot where winds and cloud formation become conducive for supercell development. That area could be as far south as Goodland, Kansas. West-southwest flow at 500 mb and moisture surging northward will create the instability needed for this afternoon, while east-southeast winds will contribute to the low-level shear necessary for rotating storms. The one issue we're dealing with this morning is cloud cover across much of Nebraska and portions of Kansas. It should burn off/move out in time for storm development, but if it doesn't we may have an "event failure" (AKA no storms). Check out the satellite image below and you'll see what I mean:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather this afternoon and tacked on a 5% tornado risk as well.

As we keep an eye to the sky this afternoon I'll be posting frequent updates on Twitter and Facebook. Be sure to follow me on those sites for the latest reports!

5/31 - 12pm CDT - Minnesota? / Back to Nebraska

2011-05-31T12:08:00.001-05:00

We're departing Detroit Lakes, Minnesota for Nebraska this morning. Many of you are probably asking how on earth we ended up in Minnesota last night. Here's the deal: The area of low pressure that we tried to stay up yesterday with kept moving northward and we had to follow it into the Fargo, North Dakota area. The cap (warm layer of inhibiting air) was broken with 4500 J/kg CAPE (!) for nearly four hours yesterday, but the low kept moving around. This meant that the east wind component needed for supercell formation wasn't staying in the same place either, so elements just weren't lining up in one spot for a long enough time to get anything going. Once we finally threw in the towel, we headed just a few miles east to Detroit Lakes, Minnesota for a nice evening in the town with a view of the lake.

Not all was lost though, because we did have a fast-moving squall line of storms move through Detroit Lakes while we were eating dinner. We had heavy rain and lightning where we were, but just a few miles west in Fargo, ND they sustained some wind damage due to a bowing segment in the line of storms.

Westerly flow aloft and southeasterly winds at the surface will return to Nebraska/South Dakota tomorrow as an area of low pressure moves into Colorado. These winds at the surface should usher in dew points that will break 65 degrees, so moisture should not be a problem as it returns to the Plains. Instability also looks good and it appears the cap will break tomorrow in the later afternoon hours. With all of this put into play, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a 15% Slight Risk area for severe weather in Nebraska, parts of South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa. They even have a hatched area for an enhanced risk and their discussion calls for supercells with a few tornadoes possible. Looks like the chase is on again tomorrow!

5/30 - 10:15am CDT - Time for Some Northern Plains Action

2011-05-30T10:10:00.001-05:00

We're off to Eastern South Dakota (Northeast Nebraska maybe?) to intercept storms that will form up that way. This has so far been a difficult forecasting day because the computer forecast models show an area of low pressure in Nebraska this morning, but each have a slightly different scenario on where it ends up. Some are even forming a secondary low to the north this afternoon. The general rule for today is to drive to where the east winds are and adjust our position as necessary because we simply can't trust any model output. This is one of those days where skill in analyzing surface conditions and cloud formation will be key.

Since moisture, instability, and shear will all be ample today combined with the east winds, wherever they set up, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather with a 10% tornado risk. Supercells that form today won't stay isolated for very long since directional shear will be parallel to the cold front pushing through according to the SPC. If this happens as forecast, we may only have a short window to chase a good storm with a tornado risk, so being on-time is very important. That's why we left North Platte, NE at 8am his morning. We should be in our target area early this afternoon.

As we pulled in a restaurant to eat breakfast this morning, we saw The Weather Channel's Tornado Hunt vehicles in the parking lot. We also saw quite a few other chasers pull in to restaurants and hotels in North Platte last night, so I'm sure that town was happy to see the quick uptick in business generated by all the chasers.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook today. I'll be posting frequent updates and photos from our chase, which should be a good one if the forecast plays out.

5/30 - 12am CDT - Upslope Storms Part Deux Fell Flat

2011-05-30T00:01:00.002-05:00

Our second attempt in chasing upslope storms within a week fell flat today. Like last time, the cap stayed on too tight and a layer of clouds and fog overspread our target area just as we thought storms would initiate. While we waited this afternoon just east of Cheyenne, WY, we ran into Mike Bettes and the Weather Channel's Great Tornado Hunt crew.

The very fog that moved into our target area only grew thicker as we moved into Nebraska to try and limit our driving time needed for tomorrow. At it's thickest point, the fog dropped visibility to around 300 feet as we headed east on I-80. We literally could not see the signs on the side of the road until they were just to the right of the edge of our hood.

Tomorrow could be a pretty big day in the Dakotas and Northern Nebraska. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (45%) for portions of the area and expects a few significant tornadoes tomorrow afternoon before the storms merge into a linear line. I'll have an update tomorrow morning when we get on the road, which will be early so that we can get to our target on time.

5/29 - 10:45am MDT - Upslope Storms, Part Deux

2011-05-29T11:42:00.001-05:00

We're heading to Northeast Colorado/West Nebraska/Eastern Wyoming this morning for the second time in less than a week in search of upslope thunderstorms. Hopefully this run will be more successful than our attempt last week when the cap held on too tight and there were no storms (save for a weak one in West NE). The setup today is fairly classic for this area, with east winds already setting up across much of Northeast Colorado, West Nebraska, and Eastern Wyoming. These are the surface winds necessary to get the moist air to lift as the air moves west along the increasing elevation (scroll down to my 5/26 post to get a more detailed explanation).

Our major concern this morning has been the cloud shield, but it appears that it's clearing out pretty well to allow for the building of instability this afternoon. We're looking at a 5-6pm MDT timeframe when storms will fire across our target area as surface heating overcomes the cap (warm layer of inhibiting air aloft). A warm front pushing northward should help this process and increase dew points. Hopefully we'll get some supercells out of this today. With the east winds at the surface and southwest winds aloft, I'm inclined to think that we will as long as the cap doesn't hold too tight.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates while we're chasing!

5/28 - 10:30am MDT - A New Week Starts in Denver

2011-05-28T11:22:00.001-05:00

We're on the road to Denver this morning to meet with our guests on tour 5 this afternoon. Yesterday we finished up tour 4, which ran 2,369 miles through 6 states. Check out the image below for a map of the route we took last week through Tornado Alley:

Tomorrow we begin chasing again, and our target area could be Northeast Colorado or Eastern South Dakota. I'm inclined to think that we'll go or Northeastern Colorado if conditions look good in the morning because of the proximity to our base in Denver. On Monday we'll probably be in Nebraska for what looks to be a supercell event that will eventually turn into a line of storms in the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted a Slight Risk area on their outlook for Monday, so we'll have to take a closer look at the forecast this evening and tomorrow.

5/27 - 10am MDT - Denver, Amarillo, Denver

2011-05-27T11:01:00.001-05:00

The next 36 hours are going to be a whirlwind. We stayed in Denver last night after trying to chase an upslope storm setup in Eastern Colorado that didn't materialize thanks to cloud cover and possibly marginal southeast winds. We're now on our way to Amarillo to drop off our tour guests from tour 4 so they can leave on their flights tomorrow morning. We'll be leaving too... back to Denver again so that we can receive our new guests on tour 5 and begin another week of storm chasing. So, 8 hours to Amarillo today and 8 hours back to Denver tomorrow. We drove 414 miles yesterday in search of severe weather, and it's a shame that it didn't work out.

Next week's weather looks promising for chasing. Sunday will most likely be a day to setup for Monday's chase in the Eastern North Plains, but there's a chance something could fire in Nebraska while we're on our way. Monday already has a risk area outlined by the SPC in Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Tuesday will probably be a down day as a bit of a trough builds in. The rest of the week will most likely be a chase in the North Plains as well, but it's a bit too far away to make an accurate guess at where exactly we'll be. Looks like we may be lacking upper-level support in many areas after Tuesday, but we'll see how things shape up.

5/26 - 11:45am MDT - Upslope Storms in Northeast Colorado

2011-05-26T12:44:00.001-05:00

Good morning from I-70 westbound near Burlington, Colorado! We're on the hunt for upslope thunderstorms in Northeast Colorado (maybe Eastern Wyoming?) today since this appears to be the best chance for severe weather across the Plains. The reason we call these storms "upslope" is because they form when easterly or southeasterly winds blow into the higher elevations near the Rocky Mountains, causing air to lift as it does. This lift helps to create thunderstorms because the lifting air cools to its condensation point (a cloud is born) as it increases in elevation with the topography. Check out the graphic I made this morning to explain this concept to our tour guests during our briefing for a good visual:

It appears that shear will be quite good today, so rotating thunderstorms and supercells aren't out of the question. The tornado risk doesn't appear to be high today, but storms that have formed out this way over the past couple of weeks have had a history of overachieving by producing tornadoes and landspouts. Dew points will be in the upper 40's and 50's this afternoon across Eastern Colorado, which is good for storm development in this area. The elevation here compensates for the lack of moisture in the air, so you don't need the 60 degree + dew points that you need in the Central and Southern Plains. We already have dew points in the 40's this morning and the southeast upslope winds to carry in even more moisture, so we're well on our way:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued what's called a "See Text" for Northeast Colorado and Eastern Wyoming today. This means that the SPC doesn't feel this risk area merits a Slight Risk, but instead they want to direct your attention to the textual discussion below the graphic on the webpage for further information. This does not mean there won't be severe weather out here today. Since there will only be a couple isolated supercells affecting a small population, it's not worth it to issue a Slight Risk area. These supercells could put down tornadoes as I said before, but the risk to life and property is minimal due to the aforementioned low population out here. That's good news because we will have a great view of these storms today without the dangers and hinderance that populated areas pose to storm chasers. There is also a 2% tornado risk through extreme Northeast Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and Western Nebraska, which is something new on the 1630z SPC outlook that wasn't included with the early morning one. Hopefully we'll find some good storms today!

Don't forget to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest chase updates this afternoon!

5/25 - 11:30am CDT - Heading to Eastern Colorado / HIGH Risk East

2011-05-25T11:32:00.001-05:00

After a very active day of chasing, we're heading to Eastern Colorado to prepare for tomorrow's risk of upslope storms in that area. Yesterday we drove 362 miles across Oklahoma while chasing and you can see a couple pictures and some video that I shot in the post below.

A HIGH Risk of severe weather has been issued by the SPC for West Tennesee, Western Kentucky, Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana, and Northwest Arkansas. Just a quick look at some data this morning reveals high dew points and winds backing to the south across the region. The satellite picture is also clear for most of Kentucky and Tennessee, so instability is building quite a bit already this morning. Cities like Jackson and Memphis in Tennessee, Paducah, Owensboro, and Louisville in Kentucky, Jonesboro, Arkansas, St. Louis, Missouri, and Evansville, Indiana need to be on high alert for a possible tornado threat this evening.

5/25 - 6am CDT - Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak Yesterday

2011-05-25T06:00:00.001-05:00

Rain-wrapped tornado near Piedmont and El Reno, OK

A tornado outbreak unfolded as forecast in Oklahoma yesterday, but unfortunately many of the tornadoes were shrouded in rain as these storms were overly laden with moisture. This not only made them nearly impossible to see, but also very dangerous to chase. We were right in front of but couldn't see the tornado that destroyed parts of El Reno, OK and in fact chased that cell from it's formation in Eakly, OK earlier in the afternoon. I'd venture to say that we were less than two miles from that violent tornado, but all that we could see was a giant grey mess in the distance.

Supercell forming near Eakly, Oklahoma

Later on after a trip through Oklahoma City, we took shelter in Moore, OK because of hail and a tornado passing over I-35 just in front of us as we went southbound. What we didn't know was that the twister took a northward jog and caused damage just a few hundred yards in front of us. Scary, no? It wasn't a strong tornado, but it toppled some power lines and threw some small debris into the interstate roadway. After that tornado passed by we went to survey some damage in Moore and Newcastle since the storms were quickly evolving into a linear system and moving into the heavy vegetation east of Oklahoma City. Check out the video below for all the action from yesterday:

5/24 - 2:20pm CDT - Storm Chasing Video Update

2011-05-24T14:19:00.001-05:00

Storms are initiating where we're at in West Oklahoma and a big tornado outbreak appears to be imminent. (Sorry about the wind noise on the video below... it's gusty out here today!)

5/24 - 11:45am CDT - HIGH Risk in Oklahoma

2011-05-24T11:47:00.001-05:00

Yet another tornado outbreak is on the way in the United States today and this time we're going to be smack-dab in the middle of it. A strong cut-off area of low pressure moving across the Plains this afternoon will provide the needed moisture-laden surface winds from the southeast and dry, pushing air from the southwest to create a sharp dry line that will be the focus for storm development this afternoon. Instability values will be off the charts as the cap (thunderstorm-inhibiting layer of warm air above the surface) breaks sometime during the middle of the afternoon. Temperatures aloft today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, so storms should stay isolated, especially south of the Kansas border. Locations near that border will most likely see a similar situation to yesterday, when tons of developing storms merged into an un-chaseable complex. There's a bit of a cloud shield situated vertically across the central part of the state this morning, but it should clear out fairly quick.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare HIGH Risk for Oklahoma and Southern Kansas because of how potent this setup looks. The issuance of a HIGH Risk may not seem rare because of all the destructive outbreaks that have happened this year, but overall they don't issue one but once or twice at the most in a normal season. The risk includes a 45% tornado risk (!), something that has only been used for the devastating April 27th tornado outbreak in the South this year. Needless to say, expectations are high and a lot of folks are nervous around here. We're getting in position right now in Oklahoma and making adjustments as necessary based on conditions.

With such a huge outbreak expected, today is certainly the day that you need to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for my latest chase updates and photos if you haven't already.

5/24 - 6am CDT - Great Supercell Yesterday, HIGH Risk Today

2011-05-24T06:00:00.007-05:00

We chased a supercell that formed near Ringwood, Oklahoma yesterday for a few minutes until it merged with other storms and became weaker. We moved to a new isolated cell near Greenfield, OK and it persisted for a while with a few rotating wall clouds. It may not have produced a tornado, but it certainly had the capability and nearly did when one of these wall clouds tightened up considerably. Check out the video below to see it all happen!

The panorama below gives you an idea of how close the wall cloud came to the ground as its rotation tightened:

We traveled 366 miles yesterday on our chase, which took us from Woodward to Oklahoma City, Oklahoma:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a HIGH Risk for severe weather tomorrow in Oklahoma and Kansas. We stayed in Oklahoma City last night, so we're not far from the action. There's a 30% tornado risk with this outlook, which is the first HIGH Risk of the year for the Plains.

Here's a snippet of the SPC's discussion for today:

VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND SEVERAL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY AS THE STORMS INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS KS/OK INTO WRN AR AND THEN LATER INTO WRN MO.

I'll have an update later this morning with the latest SPC severe weather outlook and a discussion on today's outbreak along with our target area.

5/23 - 11am CDT - Destruction in Joplin / Today's Chase in OK

2011-05-23T11:00:00.001-05:00

The US just can't catch a break from horrendous tornado destruction this year. Last night a very powerful wedge tornado tore through the town on Joplin, Missouri leaving nearly 40% of the town destroyed and 89 dead as of this writing. Many are calling this tornado, which also ripped through a hospital in Joplin, an EF4 tornado. While no official designation will be given to this twister until the National Weather Service completes a survey of the damage, the look of the destruction on TV and online suggests an EF4-like tornado. The pictures coming in look just like Tuscaloosa, which was hit by a similar tornado on April 27th. We were not in Joplin last night because it was too far away from our starting location in Amarillo where we picked up our new tour guests. We also usually don't chase in that area because of the increased vegetation and topography issues. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

This morning we're in Oklahoma getting into position for what could be another active day. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk for severe weather across much of Oklahoma and unfortunately the hard-hit Joplin area in Missouri. A 10% tornado risk accompanies this severe weather outlook, which you'll find below. Dew points in the upper 60's to near 70 will be more than enough for storm development this afternoon and east surface winds coupled with southwest winds aloft should enhance wind shear. The surface area of low pressure we're watching along the Oklahoma/Kansas border may be dropping south and west this afternoon, so we'll have to follow the good surface winds as they move.

Don't forget that you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates as we're chasing!

5/22 - 3:15pm CDT - Another Week Begins!

2011-05-22T15:17:00.001-05:00

We're heading toward Oklahoma today to be in position for tomorrow's chase. The risk area right now from the SPC for tomorrow has Central Oklahoma in the crosshairs (see below), but we're thinking Southwest Kansas might be a better bet based on the surface wind forecast alone. We'll see how it sets up tomorrow morning before we head out. Tuesday looks good too, and our target area will likely be just east of where it will be tomorrow.

Our journeys took us to Palo Duro Canyon just south of Amarillo this morning as we wanted to kill some time before heading into the "wilderness" of Northwest Oklahoma. Check out this panorama below that I took:

5/21 - 3pm CDT - Back in Amarillo to Prepare for Next Week

2011-05-21T15:08:00.002-05:00

We're in Amarillo today getting ready for another tour group to arrive. We washed and vacuumed the van (it was bad from all that Kansas dust), so we're ready for another week of storm chasing. We'll have two vehicles this week filled with excited storm chasing tour guests from all over the world, so it should be a good run.

SPC Severe Probability - Mon

Things are looking quite interesting next week, but we're meeting each risk of severe weather with tempered optimism after the problems that plagued our storms this week. Sunday looks to be a travel/sightseeing day because the risk of severe weather is too far east for us to travel from Amarillo and the terrain/vegetation in that part of the country presents even greater difficulty. Monday, on the other hand, looks pretty good. A surface low near the OK/TX panhandles should move in and deepen considerably throughout Monday, setting the stage for severe storms to erupt in West Oklahoma and Southwest Kansas. We'll likely play the Southwest Kansas component of this risk because of the east winds hitting the up-sloping geography with plenty of moisture in tow. Should be a decent tornado threat with this should it all pan out as the models indicate. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 30% Slight Risk for severe weather in this area due to these factors.

SPC Severe Probability - Tues

Tuesday will be a very similar setup, just translated 150 miles east. The SPC has already outlined a risk area for Tuesday on their 4-8 day outlook, so they're confident this far out that something may happen. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday may not be great chase days due to a small bit of ridging building into the Plains, but there's a possibility that a trough may move in soon enough on Thursday to where we may be able to chase in the North Plains of Nebraska and South Dakota. I sense a long drive back to Amarillo on Friday if that happens. The models are indicating that the severe weather setup may shift to the North Plains just in time for us to switch to our base in Denver next weekend. Let's hope so!

As always, you can follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates on our chase. Storm Chasing Adventure Tours also has a new Facebook page that you can "Like" to receive updates and photos from the group.

5/20 - 11:20am CDT - Off to Western Oklahoma

2011-05-20T11:22:00.001-05:00

After a not-as-good-as-we-thought-it-would-be day yesterday, we're off to Western Oklahoma in search of storms that will likely fire this afternoon behind an already ongoing line of storms in the central and eastern part of the state. Upper-level winds should be supportive of storms that could fire this afternoon, but we're still waiting for the atmosphere to recover behind the ongoing storms this morning. Short-range models indicate ample moisture with decent instability in the western part of the state. The dry line, which you can easily see in the dew point forecast image below, will provide a focus for storm formation as outflow boundaries from this morning's storms interact with it. This interaction will create lift to get storms going this afternoon. Temperatures aloft will still be a little cool for really good isolated storm development, but we'll take what we can get.

Be sure to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest updates this afternoon!

5/20 - 9:30am CDT - Bust Yesterday in Kansas

2011-05-20T09:23:00.000-05:00

Cool temperatures aloft kept storms from being isolated in Kansas yesterday, resulting in a plethora of individual cells that quickly formed a line. Since each cell cut-off the other's inflow, none of these storms could get strong enough to produce a good tornado. There were a few brief tornadoes and funnels yesterday, but nothing worth writing home about. We were able to intercept a cell near Wilson, Kansas before it became completely linear yesterday and saw a rapidly rotating wall cloud with many finger-like funnels. Check out the video below to see it in action!

That storm had a history of producing a brief tornado, but the cell was moving too fast to intercept it at that point. After we left that storm, we traveled down to just north of Dodge City, KS, where an isolated supercell developed in the untapped warm air. We briefly saw what we thought to be a rope tornado from a few miles away, but it was too far to tell. This cell was spectacular for the few minutes that it stayed isolated yesterday and I was able to snap a gorgeous panorama of it as the sun went down:

I'll have an update from the road later on this morning... not quite sure if we'll chase in Oklahoma today or just head back to Amarillo so that our guests can prepare for their departure tomorrow.

5/19 - 9:15am CDT - Let's Hope This One Works Out...

2011-05-19T09:08:00.000-05:00

Today could be a big day in Tornado Alley. All the right ingredients seem to be coming together for quiet a severe weather event in Central Kansas this afternoon. Ample instability, upper-level winds from the southwest, surface east winds, and dew points possibly getting into the mid 60's this afternoon will fuel this event, which will likely produce the discrete or isolated supercell thunderstorms that we've been longing to chase all week. The fly in the ointment this morning is that there is a rather large cloud shield over the state that needs to move northeast before anything can happen. The sooner this happens, the better. Also, there's a dry slot aloft in the Oklahoma Panhandle that needs to make it here by this afternoon (that shouldn't be too much of an issue). If either of these things fail to happen, we could be stuck with a situation like yesterday where no storms form.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for Central Kansas this afternoon with a 10% hatched tornado risk. This is the biggest tornado risk that they've issued since I've been in Tornado Alley these two weeks so far. Here's an interesting tidbit from the SPC's discussion this morning:

A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DURING THE EARLY EVENING COULD RESULT IN A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IN THIS AREA.

Pretty strong wording, no? Let's hope it all pans out for our sake and for all the other chasers out there who are starving for some activity.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest photos and updates this afternoon!

5/19 - 12:45am CDT - Bust Today, Better Tomorrow?

2011-05-19T00:39:00.001-05:00

Frustrating. There's no other way to put it. We had storms blowing up and developing before our eyes this afternoon in Oklahoma only to have a cirrus cloud shield develop in the upper levels of the atmosphere and squash any further development. Just about all the other conditions were right for this severe weather event, but the cloud shield made sure that nothing would form. A few linear storms along the warm front surging north this even have formed, but they should be out of Kansas pretty soon.

Speaking of Kansas, that's where all the action will likely be tomorrow. Upper level winds will be stronger tomorrow than today, but this time over Kansas. We're hoping that a dry slot aloft moving into the region later this evening (see right satellite image) will decrease the chances of an inhibiting cirrus shield forming tomorrow like it did today. Temperatures at 700mb will be less than optimal (need 10C or higher, but we may only have 8-9C tomorrow), so a shot of dry air will definitely be needed to keep clouds from forming in the cooler temperatures up there. Otherwise, I like the setup since winds and moisture will be wrapping around the northeast side of a low centered in the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Easterly winds should stick around in Central Kansas beceause The cap (warm layer of air aloft) should break sometime after 4pm or so tomorrow based on output from the NAM computer model.

With all of these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms tomorrow across Central Kansas with a 10% tornado risk tacked on. Could this be upgraded to a Moderate Risk? I think so if this dry slot aloft comes in and keeps the upper air clear tomorrow. We also have to be sure that no storms develop over Central Kansas tomorrow morning, which seems unlikely at this point. After two big severe weather busts in the past couple weeks, we're hoping tomorrow will be the charm!

Be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook tomorrow for all the latest updates from our chase!

5/18 - 9:30am CDT - We're Back to Chasing!

2011-05-18T09:21:00.001-05:00

It's been a long start to the week since there haven't been any storms to chase here in the Great Plains. That changes today. We're on our way to Oklahoma in search of tornadoes this afternoon, and I think the potential is looking pretty good considering how things have been this week. Moisture is still going to be an issue, but surface dew points should recover somewhat today. That recovery will take time, so storms may not form until later in the afternoon. Easterly winds at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft at 500mb (18,000 ft) should create ample shear for today's setup, meaning any supercells that form will stay discrete and have the associated tornado risk with them. CAPE or instability shouldn't be a problem based on the modeling for this afternoon and the cap (warm updraft-inhibiting layer of air aloft) should break sometime after 3pm. Given these factors, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon for much of Southwest Kansas and Western Oklahoma with a 5% tornado risk for the Panhandle region through Southwest Oklahoma.

Be sure to follow my updates on Facebook and Twitter for the latest on our storm chasing adventures this afternoon!

5/17 - 12:45am MDT - Back to Texas Tomorrow!

2011-05-17T01:46:00.003-05:00

Surface dew points at 7pm CDT Wednesday from the 0z GFS

We'll be heading back to Central Texas tomorrow so that we can prepare for Wednesday's severe weather risk in that region. The latest 0z model runs (hence the late blog post) have come back with decent results, especially when it comes to the moisture return to the region that we'll need for the Wednesday through Friday's severe weather risks. The NAM and GFS models are both expecting dew points to be in the middle 60's in Central Texas on Wednesday afternoon, which is within the range needed for severe storm development. 500mb winds may not be the best, out of the west-southwest at around 30kt, but that should be enough upper-level support for this "entry-level" event for the week. With the upper wind support, surface heating, and high dew points, instability or CAPE will be in the 2000 J/kg, which again is good enough. These factors plus the presence of the dryline (boundary between moist air in the East US and dry air in the West US) should squeeze out a discrete supercell thunderstorm or two provided that the cap (inhibiting warm layer of air above the surface) doesn't stick around too late. The tornado risk isn't huge because of the higher bases these storms may have, but it's certainly not nonexistent.

We'll plan out an exact target area as we're driving later today and we'll refine it even more tomorrow morning. Thursday and Friday will have higher numbers for these variables across the board, so we can expect an enhanced storm chasing setup then. Should be an interesting mid to late week!

Don't forget to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest chase updates!

5/16 - 12:45pm MDT - Touring New Mexico

2011-05-16T13:46:00.001-05:00

We just toured Carlsbad Caverns in New Mexico and are getting ready to hike around the Guadalupe Mountains near the Texas/New Mexico border. It looks like this will be our last day of "touristy" things as the risk for severe weather increases tomorrow. While it won't be a big risk tomorrow, some moisture will be streaming back into the Southern Plains and we may chase a few elevated thunderstorms that form in the evening. Of course the bigger risk is still Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, so we'll continue to monitor that. The return of moisture into the region may be better than previously thought, so this could be a good end to the week! I'll have a more detailed discussion on that setup tonight once some new computer model runs come in. Check out this panoramic photo I shot of the view from Carlsbad Caverns today:

5/15 - 6pm MDT - New Mexico!

2011-05-15T19:04:00.002-05:00

Storm Chasing Adventure Tours is in Carlsbad, New Mexico for the evening as we're still waiting for the severe weather threat to ramp up during the middle part of the week. We visited Roswell, New Mexico this afternoon and the associated alien museums and gift shops before heading to Carlsbad where we'll view the bats flying out of Carlsbad Caverns this evening near sunset.

12z GFS dewpoints at 7pm CDT Wed

Tomorrow should be another "touristy" day before we begin seriously looking at the risk for a severe weather event across much of Texas and Oklahoma on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The latest models have moisture streaming back into the region nicely, but we're keeping a close eye on it. You can see the dewpoints rising near the Oklahoma/Texas border on the right-hand image from the GFS model. Should moisture return as advertised, things should shape up nicely for mid to late week. Three or more good days of chasing in a row? That sounds good to me!

5/14 - 2pm CDT - Gearing Up for Another Week of Storm Chasing

2011-05-14T13:53:00.000-05:00

We're in Amarillo, TX today to prepare for another week of storm chasing with a new set of tour guests. The van has been washed and the oil changed, and all the guides and drivers are fully rested for what Mother Nature will bring in the coming days. While getting things done in Amarillo today, we passed by a bunch of semi tractor-trailers at a truck stop in town carrying blades for the giant power-producing wind turbines in farms around the Plains. Look how huge one of these blades is!

Next week's severe weather risk areas are still a bit fuzzy as we'll be under a ridge here in the Plains for at least the next few days. Once a trough begins moving through on Tuesday into Wednesday, we should see severe weather chances begin to increase. Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly even Friday are all looking like good chase days due to upper-air support and moisture streaming back into the region. Even the Storm Prediction Center is mum on details about next week because of all the uncertainty regarding where exactly this will set up:

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN ACROSS TX INTO OK AND PERHAPS EVEN KS BY MID-LATE WEEK AS LARGE SCALE HIGH LEVEL FLOW RELUCTANTLY FORCES RIDGE TO NUDGE SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WITH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ATOP RETREATING SFC ANTICYCLONE. WHILE A FEW SEVERE TSTMS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS PATTERN THERE IS SOME RELUCTANCE TO INTRODUCE A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF RIDGE DISPLACEMENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION.

5/11 - 11:30pm CDT - Video of TIV 2 and TVN Dominator

2011-05-14T01:12:00.000-05:00

Even though we didn't see any severe weather today, we were able to hang out in Pratt, Kansas for a little while to see the Tornado Intercept Vehicle 2 (TIV 2) and Tornadovideos.net's Dominator vehicle, both from Discovery Channel's Storm Chasers TV show. It was a rare find for us because it's not common to see both the TIV and Dominator in the same place at the same time. Discovery Channel crews were actively filming the show while we were there, and some of our group may even show up in the 'behind the scenes' episode that airs at the end of each show season. Check out the video below for a look at what we saw!

5/13 - 12:15am - National Weather Center / Amarillo

2011-05-13T12:07:00.001-05:00

We visited the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma this morning. This facility located on the University of Oklahoma's campus is home to the Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory, and other branches of the National Weather Service.

We're making our way back to Amarillo, Texas so that our current tour guests will be able to fly out tomorrow morning. There are no storms to chase today because of the aforementioned low risk of severe weather across the Plains for the next few days. Luckily, things will be picking up around the middle of next week!