6/30 - 9am - Slight Storm Chance

Looks like this northwest flow due to an area of low pressure in the Great Lakes could bring us a very small chance for some storms this afternoon. Most places around the area will not receive rain, so the rain-free week continues for a majority of the area. Another slight chance for storms exists tomorrow, but that will be it until Saturday(July 4th). This northwest flow will really take down temperatures over the next few days, with a possibility of highs dipping into the upper 70's tomorrow. We'll recover back into the mid 80's for the rest of the week, but the northwest flow will take us in to unseasonably cool territory. Our average high for this time of year is 86 degrees.

6/29 - 4pm - Rain-Free for Nearly a Week!

We're getting ready to close out the second wettest June on record in Louisville, but you'd never know it by looking at the forecast. This pattern where we have the ridge to our west is keeping all precipitation to our north, and that should continue until at least Saturday with highs in the mid 80's. By then, a low passing to our south may generate some showers and storms up this way. According to the long-range GFS, it looks like we'll pick up our dry pattern right where we left off by then.

6/28 - 10:30am - Dry and Cooler

This should be the last day in the 90's for a little while and we should remain dry this week. A cold front that moved through this morning, accompanied by no rain, will lower temperatures into the mid 80's this week. Any disturbances will stay just to our north thanks to ridging in the west, so we should see clear skies until at least next weekend.

There may be a stray shower this morning or early afternoon due to this cold front still being in the area, but chances look slim.

6/27 - 3:30pm - New Video Forecast

Today will be a scorcher, but next week looks a bit tamer in terms of temperature. After a few scattered storms on Sunday morning, the rest of the week will see dry weather and temperatures in the mid 80's.



Don't forget to check out my 2009 Storm Chasing Highlights page.

6/26 - 10am - A Temporary Reprieve

A line of storms that went through last night gave us a soaking and a good lightning show. There could be some pop-up scattered storms later this morning and this afternoon, but the main action is well to our south now. Some of these storms could get severe, so the SPC has put us in a SLIGHT Risk for severe weather today:



Dry and clear conditions are expected until Sunday, when we'll have another line of storms come through during the late afternoon or evening. The dry and clear weather will resume after Sunday, but luckily temperatures will dip down into the 80's next week.

6/25 - 1:30pm - Scattered Strong Storms

More heat is on the way with a high somewhere between 92 and 93 today. Looks like we're going to see some scattered strong storms this evening as a cold front comes through. West surface winds and light shear should prevent them from becoming too bad, but there could be a few severe storms with wind and hail.

More showers and storms will roll through tomorrow, but none are expected to be severe. Saturday looks dry and very hot (mid 90's), but scattered showers and storms will make another appearance on Sunday. Once the rain on Sunday is finished, we should stay clear and dry with highs in the mid to upper 80's next week.

6/24 - 3pm - Storms Tomorrow, Maybe Severe?

We've yet to break 90 today, but we're almost there at 88 degrees. Temperatures around the area should top off at around 92 this afternoon. The SPC has issued a SLIGHT Risk (15%) for severe weather tomorrow for us and areas to our north:


Instability will be a little higher than usual tomorrow and there will be ample moisture to support thunderstorm development. I'm not impressed with winds coming off the models right now, so a tornado threat looks unlikely at this time. A bit of the jet stream will be coming down from the north tomorrow, so we'll have to see exactly what this does in the morning. If a line of storms forms and comes through here in the morning, our severe threat will be limited or nonexistent. If not, and we maintain clear skies throughout the morning and afternoon, then the severe threat would be elevated quite a bit. It should become clear by early tomorrow how bad the storms will be.

Friday and Saturday will be steamy again, but at least there won't be any rain. Thunderstorms could return to the area on Sunday, but the rest of next week looks pretty dry!

6/23 - 3:30pm - Hot Weather, Storm Chasing Videos and Photos

92 may not sound too bad, but couple that with humidity and you have quite a scorcher! We'll be in the 90's for the rest of the week, with heat indices soaring above 100 on Wednesday and maybe thereafter. The computer models are now putting rain in here on Thursday afternoon as opposed to Friday and they've gotten rid of the weekend rain completely. We'll see if this holds up on the next few model runs.

I just posted a new page at ryanweather.org with pictures and videos from my storm chasing trip. Click here to view it.

6/22 - 11pm - Stormy Day!

You're not alone if you were jolted awake by thunder this morning. Storms rolled through the area and put down quite a bit of rain before 10am this morning. Another line of storms nearly hit us this afternoon, but luckily it stayed to our west. Nashville is getting ready to get hit by this, and there are Severe Thunderstorm WARNINGS down there associated with this line.

We should stay dry until Friday, when a shower or two could come through. There could also be some showers around on Sunday morning as well. This week will be characterized by hot (lower 90's) and humid weather, but it won't be a washout like last week.

6/21 - 5pm - It's Humid in Louisville!

It's great to be back in Louisville after an exhilarating two weeks in Tornado Alley. I was washing the family van today and realized how humid it was after sweating it out for 45 minutes. The high amount of moisture in the air will help fuel more showers and thunderstorms this evening coming in from the north. These may or may not miss Louisville, but they are heading in this direction and showing some good development.

We could see a stray shower or storm tomorrow, but we should remain dry until the weekend. Lower 90's will be around this week, but a slight cool down might be on the way by next Sunday.

6/20 - 1am MDT - Time to Go Home, Aurora Aftermath

As we made our way back to Denver today, we were able to stop by Aurora, NE to see the damage caused by the EF2 wedge tornado we saw there on Wednesday. We were shocked by the extent of the damage because we never could really grasp how severe the tornado was while we were chasing it:


We drove by that house you see in the first photo right before the tornado touched down. There was a barn there as well. I'm happy to report that the family living in that house, including four kids, escaped unharmed by staying in their basement. Only the edge of the tornado hit the house, but the barn next to it took the full force of the EF2 winds. Only a small pile of red-painted wood debris was left from the barn, which was less than a year old.

Here's the path of the tornado with our route and stopping points (orange dots):


Notice how one of our stopping points, the first orange dot, was right in the path of the tornado at its highest EF2 intensity. We were about 250 yards away from the tornado at this point and you can see how scary that looked in the video I posted on Wednesday.

For a complete survey report from the National Weather Service, click here.

I'm leaving Denver tomorrow to return to Louisville. It's been a thrilling two weeks with tons of supercells, my video of a supercell in Kiowa County, KS airing on Good Morning America, sightings of VORTEX2 and the Tornado Intercept Vehicle, hail covering I-70 east of Denver, and of course my first four tornado sightings on Wednesday near Aurora, NE.

By the way, I also just uploaded the brand-new website for Storm Chasing Adventure Tours at http://stormchasing.com. Even if you can't book a tour with us next year, be sure to get an official Storm Chasing Adventure Tours t-shirt at our store on the website!

It's sad to be leaving Tornado Alley, but I'm also happy to be coming home after two weeks on the road. It's been great chasing this week with our tornado-proof group:

6/18 - 10:30pm CDT - No Severe Weather in Iowa

We traveled all around Central Iowa today waiting for supercell development. It just didn't happen because winds did not back out of the east and a cloud shield developed to suppress updraft development. Today was our official last day of chasing because there won't be any severe weather in the Plains tomorrow and we have to make our way back to Denver from Iowa. It's been great chasing out here these couple weeks, especially after that mega tornado yesterday near Aurora, NE. I'll be coming home to Louisville on Saturday, but I'm sure going to miss storm chasing out here!

Don't forget to check out my video of the four tornadoes near Aurora, NE yesterday in the blog post below.

6/18 - 4am CDT - Aurora Tornadoes Video and Photos

Here's video I shot of the four tornadoes that touched down west of Aurora, NE, including the wedge on the edge of town. Some of this video was shot only 250 to 300 yards from this violent wedge tornado. (NOTE: No audio for first minute and a half due to background noise issues)


News media: Would you like to air the footage above? Email me at ryan@ryanweather.org

Here are photos from the intercept:

6/18 - 1am CDT - TORNADO VIDEO COMING SOON

I'm hard at work processing the video I shot of three small tornadoes and one very large wedge tornado that a long-lived supercell spawned just west of Aurora, Nebraska. I'll also have pictures as well. We were just a few hundred yards away from this monster quarter-mile wide (may have been more, possibly half or three quarter-mile wide) wedge tornado and were even getting sand-blasted by some of the outlying winds. I still have sand in my hair from this tornado... it was that intense and that close to us. Damage was certainly done to some farm buildings near Aurora, but we were way too close to the wedge to actually see what was going on.

Expect the pictures and video to be here on the blog sometime around 4:00am EDT. Long night ahead, but well worth it!

JUST STOOD YARDS AWAY FROM A HUGE WEDGE TORNADO IN AURORA, NE!!!

6/17 - 12:30am CDT - Awesome Supercell!

We started off in Northern Oklahoma this morning where there were east winds, but the cap (warm layer of air above the surface) was on too tight and was inhibiting convection. After hours of meandering through the area near Woodward, OK, we finally saw some cumulus clouds getting organized just south of Wichita, KS. We hopped on I-35 toward Wichita and caught up with a cell that was just giving birth to a wall cloud as we arrived. We stayed with this supercell for nearly three hours because it was a training storm, meaning it kept reforming and staying in the same location. It had a rotating wall cloud for a good portion of its life, but no funnel or tornado ever manifested. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning provided a good show for us until another storm cell finally formed and pushed the weakening supercell out of the area.






Looks like our target area tomorrow will be somewhere near Central or Eastern Nebraska, but we'll know for sure tomorrow morning.

Good morning! We're off to Northern Oklahoma for another day of chasing.

6/16 - 1am CDT - We're Back in Kansas!

NOTE: There will not be anymore live streaming video and fewer blog updates for the rest of my trip because our rental vehicle cannot be outfitted with custom mobile broadband and networking equipment. You can still see our current location at http://stormchasertv.com.

The last 36 hours have been very eventful, but we still got to go chasing today! Todd came and picked us up in Wray, CO this afternoon after accompanying the tow truck carrying his deer-stricken SUV to Denver. We went to Western Nebraska and then down to Northwest Kansas after east winds began to develop there. The dryline helped fire off a few supercells and we chased those well into the evening. There were a few small finger-like funnels, but that was about it for the tornadic aspect of these cells. They showed very healthy rotation and dropped some nice wall clouds, but in the end the area was too cluttered with cloud debris and other cells in the region for any tornadoes.

As the sun set, we were able to position to the southwest of a supercell near Colby, KS and watch the beautiful colors reflect off the cloud towers with frequent lightning as well. The lightning show during the evening only lasted a few minutes before this cluster of cells dissipated.

Here's what we saw today:



Our new chase vehicle is a Chrysler Town & Country. We still have wireless broadband web and a laptop, but there's no way to get the custom antennas and networking equipment for the high-speed connection on this van (needed for video and my blog updates) because it's a rental.


Our target area will be somewhere between Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas tomorrow. I'm still able to post on Twitter and Facebook from my cell phone every few hours, so you'll still be able to follow us for the most part.

We're back in business with a rental van, off to West NE! No more live video and less blogging this week due to equipment limitations.

6/14 - 10:30pm MDT - Oh Deer!!!

I just found a weak WiFi connection from the adjacent mom and pop motel. Life's good!

A deer ended our chase for the day:


(the Tazmanian Devil stuffed animal is there for good luck)

As we were traveling to McCook, NE to find dinner and a hotel for the evening, a female deer ran out in the road and we hit it on the passenger side, just inches from where I was sitting. Luckly it did not hit the windshield or cause injury, so it could have been worse. We thought that we could make it to Denver or McCook with our damage, but then we saw red fluid rushing out onto the ground from the engine. That was it for the car!

We hit this deer going 50-60mph (it perished instantly) and we think a passing train to our left scared it into the road. There was absolutely no time to brake because the deer was running extremely fast and we only had a fraction of a second to react. It was one of the scariest things that have happened to me in a car and the sound it made as it hit my side was the worst I've heard. There was no cell service from Verizon, Sprint, AT&T, or T-Mobile where we hit the deer, just inside the Nebraska border near Wray, CO. We were luckily to have a good samaritan named Joe pull over and help us out. He made trips between our mom and pop motel, carting us and our luggage. We thank Joe and wish him well with his pharmacy here in town.

Our leader Todd is on his way to Denver in the tow truck to drop off his SUV at the repair shop. He'll be renting a SUV tomorrow morning and come back to town to pick us up at around lunchtime. Since Todd's SUV is customized with cellular amplifiers and antennas for web access, we won't have that luxury in our rental. We'll still have access, but it will not be as fast and I might not be able to use it for blog and Twitter/Facebook updates. Most of our hotels have WiFi, so I'll still update the blog nightly with pictures and videos like I have been.

As far as chasing goes, we may chase tomorrow if Todd gets back to East Colorado by early afternoon. Our target area would most likely be somewhere near the NE/KS border tomorrow if we go. We didn't miss anything today because our storms east of Denver were all linear and didn't have any tornadic potential. We'll definitely be back on the road by Tuesday and things should go back to normal.

Just hit a deer near Wray, CO with our vehicle, which is damaged. No injuries. No web access here. Will resume chasing Monday or Tuesday.

6/14 - 11am MDT - East Colorado Again!

Today's our first day of active chasing on tour 7, and it looks like we won't have to drive far! Upslope winds will fire up thunderstorms in East Colorado this afternoon, and supercells should be present. CAPE value look pretty good for this elevation and moisture is holding well in place. Looks like we'll end up somewhere east of Pueblo again, so hopefully today's storms are a bit more productive down there.

Like last week, I'll be on Twitter and Facebook with up-to-the-minute updates.

6/13 - 9:30pm MDT - New Tour Group Today

We've said goodbye to Storm Chasing Adventure Tours tour 6 and now tour 7 is in full swing! There are 6 of us now and we're ready to head out tomorrow morning on our first day of chasing. Latest indications are pointing toward a target area in NE Colorado, the Nebraska panhandle, and maybe even West Kansas due to an area of low pressure hovering in Colorado. Since we've had a great deal of success with this setup for the past few days, I'm willing to bet that we'll see some good supercells tomorrow.

Here's some irony for you: there was a supercell just northeast of Denver a few hours ago that produced a photographically confirmed funnel cloud. A similar incident happened last week on Sunday when we left to chase storms in Kansas and a tornado touched down just minutes from our hotel back in Denver. Even though we couldn't chase today's storm just a few counties away because we were changing out tour groups, the upcoming week looks great for at least the first few days.

6/12 - 9:00pm MDT - We're Done for the Day

After chasing a supercell through Southeast Colorado, we're done chasing today. There weren't any funnel clouds or tornadoes, but we saw a well-defined wall cloud. As the sun set, we drove under a gas station and let it pass over us. The storm came quick, which didn't give me and a member of our group named Charley time to get inside the car before the ping-pong ball size hail came. We both ended up squatting behind the chase vehicle because the wind was blowing hail and heavy rain under the overhang of the gas station. Things settled down after a few minutes and we got back in the SUV soaked. It was great fun! We're now heading back to base in Denver.

Tomorrow is the end of tour 6 and the beginning of tour 7 for Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. We'll say goodbye to Stephen, Charley, and Dave and welcome four new guests tomorrow as they arrive. Active storm chasing will resume on Sunday, but until then, we'll be running errands and getting ready for next week.

Here are some pictures:

6/12 - 1pm MDT - LIVE Video Stream and Location

We're back with live video and GPS location updates at http://stormchasertv.com this afternoon from East Colorado, just south of Limon

Storms are beginning to fire, and winds are cooperating by coming from the east now. It's only a matter of time before we start intercepting!

If you're a member of the media interested in airing or republishing any of the pictures or videos posted here on the blog, email me: ryan@ryanweather.org. I'll be glad to help you out!

6/12 - 11am CDT - Marginal Storm Threat

We're heading south from La Junta, CO to intercept some storms that will fire shortly. Shear, instability (don't need much with upslope flow), and moisture look OK, but everything else looks pretty tame this morning. In any case, we'll see what forms and chase what we can today. I'm not really expecting anything impressive, but things can change quickly out here. I'll post later if things improve or if we find a good storm.

If you haven't seen the video and pictures in the post below, I highly suggest you do so. We saw an amazing pair of supercells merge in Eastern Colorado yesterday, but they just stopped short of putting down a tornado. I was able to get up-close video of Sean Casey's TIV II (Tornado Intercept Vehicle II) from Discovery Channel's Storm Chasers and a brief rope funnel as well.

I'll be on Twitter and Facebook as usual today.

6/12 - 7am MDT - Supercell in Colorado Yesterday

Things started pretty quickly once we got out to Eastern Colorado yesterday. Cells fired due to upslope flow, but they started sticking together and could not produce tornadoes at that point:


We watched these storms form just east of Denver and then we let one pass over us so that we could get south of it. Marble-sized hail fell brutally upon our vehicle, but nothing was big enough to cause damage. What did cause some problems was the amount of hail that stayed on the ground minutes after the storm passed:


I-70 east of Denver was covered with hail and we lost traction at least twice while braking. The air temperature also dropped to a frigid 39 degrees as the hail fell, down from around 65 just minutes earlier. We went to the tail-end of this now conjoined storm system to see if anything would intensify, but nothing was happening.

That's when a little cell near Pueblo, CO started making itself known on radar. It was unknown how this cell would develop, but after a few minutes of radar observation it became clear that this cell was going to be a good one. We made the drive down to the Pueblo area and found an intense supercell that was dropping a wall cloud. A second one formed just to the south of the first after a few minutes and then both started to fluctuate and join. This joined supercell was absolutely enormous and gave chasers (including VORTEX2, the TIV, and The Weather Channel) a few hours of absolute action. We even found the TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) and took some very close-up pictures! Unfortunately it did not put down a tornado, but we did see a brief rope funnel (2:34 in video below). Here's a video of the cell from its early stages to sunset:



Here are some pictures:

6/11 - 12:15pm MDT - LIVE Video and Location Active

We're out here near Strasburg, CO right now waiting for storms to fire. Streaming video and GPS location are now active at http://stormchasertv.com

Once storms develop we'll start moving around, but for now we're waiting next to some picturesque wheat fields. Hopefully we can get some good supercells going in the next hour or so!

6/11 - 9:30am MDT - NE Colorado

After a marginal chase yesterday, things are looking up here in West Kansas. Our target area is Northeast Colorado and maybe even East Wyoming or West Nebraska. Thunderstorms that form in those upslope areas will be a bit more isolated than yesterday and hefty helicity values should help with rotation. Winds are already out of the east this morning in Goodland, KS, so storms may fire earlier than usual this afternoon.

As far as the big elephant in the room, the tornado threat, I feel pretty good about it today. Over the past three days, Colorado has consistently had tornadoes from these upslope storms. With a few more ingredients added to the mix today, like helicity and good winds due to low pressure, things look fairly favorable for supercells. Conditions can always take a downward turn and not follow what is forecast, so things will have to be monitored closely.

I'll be on Twitter and Facebook today and I'll be sure to update when we're streaming live, which may be earlier than usual.

6/11 - 2am CDT - Exciting Escape

Choosing a target area today was hard, really hard. A cloud shield from Texas was prohibiting clean formation of supercells in SE Kansas, Texas itself couldn't support individual cells, and the Oklahoma panhandle turned out to be a letdown. We thought SE Kansas would be the target area if that cloud shield could hold off, but it didn't at all. So we turned around and headed toward SW Kansas and Oklahoma because of clearing skies and increasing cumulus clouds. While individual cells fired nicely at first with the interaction of the dryline, they eventually clumped together and didn't strengthen as expected.

The exciting escape part came as we wanted to go north to see if these cells would strengthen a bit. A mesoscale discussion from the SPC suddenly came out saying that rapid strengthening would occur as the storms hit an area of high instability. Sure enough, CAPE values were over 1000 J/KG near Liberal, KS and these cells turned into a single wind-driven monster in less than 20 minutes. We were looking for the updraft base when this happened, so we became trapped when this storm accelerated eastward towards us. Hail parameters on radar were reading over three inches, which made for a tense escape situation. The road network near Liberal, KS wasn't that great, making the search for an exit route very difficult. We were able to outrun the storm system long enough for it to weaken to a safe point. Taking shelter under a gas station in Meade, KS, we let the dying storm pass over. Only pea-sized hail and heavy rain happened in our area, so we did pretty well!

There was an unconfirmed report of a tornado inside this storm, but that may have been caused by one of the scary-looking fingers of scud cloud underneath the storm. This storm had intense straight-line winds and no rotation at this point, so it's unlikely a tornado was present.

Here are a few pictures:


We're most likely going to end up in Eastern Colorado tomorrow to catch some early-firing upslope storms.

I understand that there is some rough weather back home in Louisville tonight... stay safe out there!

We're done with the video stream for today, not much going on down here in Oklahoma.

6/10 - 4pm MDT - Video and Location Active

We're now streaming live video and GPS location: http://stormchasertv.com

Storms are beginning to fire to our west and more are expected to our south. The cells in WY, NE, and Northern CO have weakened considerably and energy will shift to storm development near our location. Let's hope for the best!

6/10 - 3:30pm CDT - Change in Plans!

After seeing a deepening low pressure area in Colorado and clouds beginning to obscure SE Kansas, we did a U-turn and started heading toward Eastern Colorado. Over the last few minutes storms have been firing in that area, with confirmed tornadoes on the ground to the north in Wyoming and Nebraska. Needless to say, we're getting there as fast as we can! We may be too late, but we'll see what happens.

By the way, we saw a couple of vans from VORTEX2 in Dodge City, KS when we stopped for lunch. Looks like they're going to the same place! That's just one of many parallels today has already drawn in comparison to yesterday. Let's hope the lack of a tornado isn't the next.

We're not quite ready for live video streaming yet, but I'll let you know when that starts.

6/10 - 11:30am CDT - SE Kansas

Today's setup is quite complex, so the decision for our target area was not an easy one. An area of storms in the Texas Panhandle could send a cloud shield into SE Kansas this afternoon, so we looked into other areas. Colorado will have some up slope thunderstorms today, but winds are not strong enough for rotating storms. Going south of the area of storms in Texas was another option, but that doesn't look too good and traveling that far would put us far away from tomorrow's target area.

So SE Kansas it is. We think we may be able to sneak down to the KS/OK border and catch cells that fire before the cloud shield from Texas reaches them. As of right now, the area looks good with clear skies, decent shear, and pretty good instability. As long as we can keep the clouds away, we're in good shape!

Will anything exciting happen today like yesterday? I really hope so because I like being able to post good video on YouTube in the evenings, especially when Good Morning America picks it up!

As always, Twitter and Facebook will be active today. I noticed a few of you had issues with the live video stream yesterday and that was because we lost our internet connection a couple of times. I'll post on here when the video feed is active, and if it doesn't work give it ten minutes and try again in case we lose our connection. When we're finished streaming for the day, I'll put out an update on Twitter and Facebook.

6/10 - 8:15am CDT - My Video on Good Morning America!

After I posted my video in the blog post below on YouTube last night, I received an email from a producer at ABC's Good Morning America requesting permission to air a clip from it. It aired this morning during the first segment:



Today's target area looks like it'll be in Kansas or Oklahoma again, but possibly a bit further east. I'll be sure to update you when I find out.

6/10 - 12:30am CDT - Impressive Supercell!

This morning's target area of somewhere south of Wichita, KS quickly changed to west of Wichita once storms fired this afternoon. All storms to the south and east of Wichita became conjoined and had problems getting too severe because there was no east wind to fuel much rotation. Then there was a cell near Dodge City, KS that managed to keep itself separated and started moving to the right (that's a good thing!). As we approached Greensburg, KS, which was destroyed during a tornado in May 2007, it took on a classic flat updraft base and dropped a downright scary wall cloud.

The area just west of Greensburg was crawling with VORTEX2 vehicles, The Weather Channel, and other media trucks. We saw a bit of a dust cloud swirling on the ground under the storm, but we assumed it was a bit of inflow. It turns out that this could have been a tornado without the condensation funnel according to VORTEX2 reports. We chased the cell through its phases until it dissipated. This cell was very close to spawning a tornado, but we think cold outflow air from storms to the east contaminated the updraft base before it could do so. Here's a video of the cell from when we intercepted it to when it dissipated:



Here are a few photos:



A DOW (Doppler On Wheels) from VORTEX2.



The Weather Channel was broadcasting live during this storm and we saw some post-storm broadcasting going on next to this MSNBC SUV (NBC now owns The Weather Channel).

Tomorrow's target area will be in Kansas like today, so we really don't have to drive far! Time for some much needed sleep...

Done chasing for the day, pictures and video late tonight.

6/9 - 7pm CDT - Heading into a Supercell

We're in Kiowa County, KS (near Greensburg) getting ready to intercept a very promising supercell. We're streaming live video at http://stormchasertv.com

Vortex2 is in the area, so we'll look for them. As always, I'll be updating on Twitter and Facebook.

6/9 - 11am CDT - There's Energy in the Air

There's energy in the air here in our chase vehicle and there's literal energy near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. The SPC has issued a MODERATE Risk for that area, as well as a good chunk of Eastern Kansas as well. What caught my attention was the tornado risk they issued this morning:


Our predicament this morning is that we may not be able to make it that far north from Abilene, TX in time. Current indications are pointing toward earlier development of storms than expected, so we may have to just chase storms that form along the dry line further south. In any case, here's what instability looks like for this afternoon:



CAPE values of over 4500 J/KG will definitely spur severe storms, but how they will organize is unclear at this point. Decent shear throughout much of the Plains should help with supercell formation today as well. Let's hope these storms in OK/KS don't fire too early!

As usual, I'll be posting frequent updates on Twitter and Facebook today.

6/9 - 1am CDT - All Sorts of Weather

As we drove south to Texas this morning we decided to stop off at the National Weather Center at the University of Oklahoma:


This shiny new building on OU's campus is home to the National Severe Storms Laboratory, the Storm Prediction Center, and other branches of NOAA. We couldn't get past the first floor without a formal tour appointment, so we just looked at some of the tornado probes and other items they had on display.

We got south of Wichita Falls, TX and found four storm cells in their infancy at around 3pm CDT. After an hour of formation, we chose the most westerly cell. Boy was that a good choice:


This storm had good enough rotation on radar to produce a tornado, but it just stopped short of dropping a funnel. Here's a video of the storm at its height, notice the inflow winds:



After this cell weakened and merged with a couple other cells, it started to take on great deal of dust with inflow winds. As the storm began to become outflow dominant, all that dust flew out of the storm in one big burst and created a bit of a dust storm:


As the storm once again strengthened, it presented another picturesque updraft base over a field of wind turbines:


This storm then raced to Abilene, TX where we met up with it after nightfall. It was a dying storm by then so we decided to core-punch it and shoot north to see some lightning. The storm unexpectedly strengthened and even started throwing out signs of rotation and notching along the southern edge as we headed into the center of the storm. Not to mention hail of 3"+ in diameter possible inside the hail core. These things plus some very intense rain made Todd change his mind and we abruptly turned around to find shelter. We found a gas station in Tye, TX and camped out under the overhang for a few minutes. While there, we experienced torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and strong winds. A transformer near the gas station blew in a fury of sparks and blue-green flashes after a few minutes of this intense weather. Needless to say, customers inside the convenience store were surprised by the sudden power outage.

How do you end an action-packed day like that? Pizza Hut!

It looks like we'll be traveling to Northern Oklahoma or Southern Kansas tomorrow. The SPC has just issued a MODERATE Risk for Central Kansas tomorrow, but we'll take a look at the data after breakfast in the morning. Here's hoping for another exciting day!

6/8 - 4:30pm CDT - Storm Cells Firing

We're southwest of Wichita Falls, TX getting ready to choose a developing storm cell to intercept. Our LIVE streaming video and current location have just been activated for the day, so you can follow along with us at http://stormchasertv.com.

Things don't look too promising for tornadoes at the moment, but large hail and nice cloud structure are a sure bet. I'll be posting updates on Twitter and Facebook, so keep checking back!

6/8 - 11am CDT - Oklahoma and Texas

After a good night's sleep and a warm breakfast, we're off to Southern Oklahoma and Northeastern Texas. Cape values of well over 4000 J/KG should provide a good environment for super cells to form in the area this afternoon and evening:

The only problem for today is shear, which does not look terribly good. South Central and Western Oklahoma will have the best shear at 40-50kt between the surface and 500mb, but this only meets and does not exceed criteria for tornado development. It's also worth noting that the best shear is west of where the best instability (CAPE) is located. A cold front in Central Oklahoma should help with lift, and that seems to be in the right place. There isn't as much hype surrounding today's conditions compared to yesterday, but that may be a good thing. Tornadoes occurred yesterday in places that were really not supposed to get any, like Denver, and did not occur in Kansas and Nebraska as expected.

I'll be updating Twitter and Facebook as much as possible today, and hopefully I'll have some great pictures to share this evening!

6/7 - 9pm CDT - Just a Rainbow

The small group of storms we were trying to intercept today did not strengthen or become severe. In fact, there were no tornadoes today in northeastern Kansas at all, only funnels. Ironically, a tornado touched down in the suburbs of Denver this afternoon only minutes from where we stayed last night. Hopefully we'll have better luck tomorrow in Oklahoma, where we're heading right now.

We did see a nice rainbow and a DOW (Doppler on Wheels) from the National Severe Storms Laboratory today. Here are some pictures:

6/7 - 5pm CDT - LIVE Video

We're getting in position to intercept a forming storm in Central Kansas right now. We've turned on our live video stream and location updates at http://stormchasertv.com. The video stream takes a few moments to load, so be patient.

There's not much to see on the stream right now, but things will liven up a bit once we start getting into the thick of things this evening.

6/7 - 10:30am MDT - On Our Way to Central Kansas

We ate lunch at the Village Inn near our hotel this morning and now we're on our way to Central Kansas. Instability and shear are looking VERY good this morning out in Eastern Kansas, but we would like to intercept any potential cells that may form early on.

Here's what the CAPE (instability) is looking like for this afternoon:


With CAPE potentially surpassing the 3000 J/KG mark, there's obviously some excitement in the air!

We'll likely end up in Northeastern Kansas tonight when it's all said and done, and I can already tell you that there will be a ton of chasers in that area. VORTEX2 and the TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) could show up at some point in our travels today, so I'll be sure to post pictures if we see them!

I'll be posting quick updates on Twitter when we get into the thick of things this afternoon, so be sure to follow my feed: http://twitter.com/ryan_weather

6/6 - 9:30pm MDT - Tomorrow's the Big Day!

We just finished eating dinner here in Denver, and we'll be leaving out tomorrow morning to start chasing. The tour group this week is the smallest we'll have this season on Storm Chasing Adventure Tours. Here we are:


Todd, the tour leader, could not join us for dinner tonight and we may have another guest coming in, but this is pretty much the group in a nutshell. We only have one SUV for this week, so it'll be quite easy to travel around and not have to worry about other vehicles. It'll be a pleasure to get to know everyone this week and share some extraordinary experiences. I'll be happy to settle into my comfy passenger-side seat tomorrow with all the gear!

6/6 - 5:30AM - Off to Denver!

It's 5:30am and I'm off to get on my flight out to Denver. I'll be posting on Twitter and Facebook on my way there, so be sure to follow or friend me on these sites. After I arrive, there will be an orientation meeting this evening at our hotel to get everyone acquainted and go over the basics of storm chasing. This meeting usually features a short storm chasing instructional video and some general advice about the trip.

We'll go out to dinner as a group this evening and Todd Thorn, the owner of Storm Chasing Adventure Tours, will announce our departure time for tomorrow based on how far we'll need to travel to get to our target area.

Since we'll have a mobile web connection during the trip, I'll be posting here on the blog and posting smaller, more frequent updates on Twitter and Facebook. Also, this year we have a live video stream and map that you can view when we're chasing in the afternoons on a website I designed called Storm Chaser TV.


Here's how you can track us and get up-to-the-minute chase updates:

Live video stream and map (available in the afternoons and evenings):
http://stormchasertv.com

Twitter:
http://twitter.com/ryan_weather

Facebook:
Search for Ryan Hoke and friend request me. There are quite a few Ryan Hokes on Facebook, so be sure to click the one with the picture of me and the Louisville skyline in the background.

Note: The updates on Twitter and Facebook will be the same, so you don't need to follow/request on both if you don't want to.


Like last year, I'll try to post on the blog here once or twice a day with pictures and hopefully some video as well. This is going to be a great trip and I hope you can join us virtually by checking our video feed, this blog, and my Twitter or Facebook updates!

6/5 - 4:30pm - Graduation and Storm Chasing, All Within 24 Hours!

It's been a wild day! I just graduated from duPont Manual High School this afternoon and have since been doing errands to prepare for my departure to Denver tomorrow. Not to mention packing my suitcase and camera equipment...

I'll post complete details on how you can track our storm chasing group early tomorrow morning, but you can check out the "Chase Location and Updates" links on the right-hand column of the blog to get an early glimpse. We're going to have live video, GPS location, this blog, and my Twitter and Facebook accounts in action as we traverse the Plains in search of severe weather.

While we won't actually be out chasing tomorrow, Sunday looks promising in Eastern Kansas and Nebraska, along with Iowa and maybe some of Missouri. While we won't hammer down a solid target area for chasing until late Saturday night or Sunday morning, I think we may be driving quite a ways east from Denver to get with the action.

6/4 - 2pm - Rain and Cold Weather in June?

Well here's an inaccurate forecast for you. This rain behind the cold front that came through yesterday does not want to exit the area as forecast and could stick around until mid afternoon. Even worse, temperatures across the area are hovering in the mid 50's. So much for "things should clear out nicely by tomorrow afternoon," as I stated in yesterday's post.

The good news is that this rain will eventually clear out by this evening and we'll be left with a sunny and warm weekend as promised.

Things are still looking pretty good for the beginning of my storm chasing trip. Severe weather will be just off to the east of Denver when I fly in on Saturday (good... no weather delays), and it looks like severe weather will fire up in Eastern NE and KS on Sunday when we start chasing. We may have to drive quite a ways to get out there from Denver, but we'll see if the target area (hopefully) shifts westward.

My official graduation from high school is tomorrow, then I leave for Denver on Saturday. What an action-packed week!

2 days until storm chasing begins!

6/3 - 7pm - 13 Years Down, 4 to Go!

Today was the last day of school for all JCPS students, meaning that today was my last at duPont Manual High School as well. Needless to say, I'm ecstatic to be moving on to greater prospects like storm chasing and college at Mississippi State. It's bittersweet to be preparing to leave Louisville in August, but what lies ahead in Mississippi will help me launch my career in broadcast meteorology. Things that I've yet to learn like calculus II, calculus III, differential equations, calculus-based physics, thermodynamics, and a host of others are on my to-do list for the next four years. In the meantime, it's time to start my summer vacation!

The rain moving through East Louisville should clear out in the next few minutes, leaving us with a nice evening. We missed the brunt of the thunderstorms that came through the area this afternoon, with most staying to our south where a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH is in effect. There may be a few more storms around the area later tonight and tomorrow, but things should clear out nicely by tomorrow afternoon. A nice weekend with highs well into the 80's is on the way, but a daily chance of rain exists for next week.

It's still a bit too far out to tell exactly how good the prospects for my storm chasing trip will be when we start on Sunday, but the overall pattern certainly looks good considering the "tornado doldrum" the Plains has been experiencing this season. An area of low pressure sitting right on top of Kansas early next week should help things out a bit and instability will be fairly decent as well. I think we'll start off our trip Sunday heading eastward from Denver to Eastern NE or KS, but that's a very rough estimate based on long-range instability and upper air models. The SPC seems to agree with this general chase area on their 4-8 day outlook:


I do want to thank our friend the Jet Stream for finally deciding to come south from Canada this week. This alone will really help things kick into high gear in Tornado Alley this weekend and next week.

3 days until storm chasing begins!

6/2 - 6pm - Time to Cool Down

We were very close to breaking the 90-degree mark today, with a high topping out at 89 degrees. A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has been issued for areas just to our north in Indiana where storms are firing up. A few isolated storms are forming to our southwest and we may see some action from these this evening if they continue their northward formation and hold together. Otherwise, tomorrow will be the day for thunderstorms around the area before a cold front pushes through tomorrow night. The SPC has placed us under a SLIGHT Risk for severe weather tomorrow:


I'm not too impressed with instability and shear numbers coming off of the models right now, so I'd say this will be a wind and hail issue without much of a tornado threat. Like the last week or so, these storms will maintain a scattered, multicellular pattern throughout the day tomorrow. Storms should fire in the late afternoon and continue through the evening before dissipating by Thursday morning. Thursday's high should be around 70.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look dry, but a small daily chance for a thunderstorm will be in the forecast for most of next week.

It's almost time for me to start packing! After one more day of high school tomorrow and graduation later this week, I'm off to Denver for storm chasing on Saturday!

4 days until storm chasing begins!

6/1 - 6:30pm - Are YOU Ready for 90's?

It seems weird to be talking about 90-degree weather whilst being in school, but hey, thank the remnants of Hurricane Ike and that horrid ice storm in January for that. School in Jefferson County ends on Wednesday, but the heat's already here! We should shoot past 90 degrees for the first time in 2009 tomorrow, with a high somewhere near 92. After a sunny Tuesday, storms will push through on Wednesday afternoon. A few severe storms could be in the works on Wednesday, but I'm not too impressed with the latest instability numbers and front placement at the moment. It'll take another day to hammer that one out completely.

Once any remaining storms clear early Thursday, we should be left with a nice end to the week. More rain is expected as a low pushes through the region early next week.

Let's talk storm chasing! The SPC's 4-8 day outlook made my day when I saw it a few minutes ago:


I arrive in Denver before lunchtime on June 6th, and Day 5 on the outlook includes June 5th and 6th and Day 6 includes the 6th and 7th. Obviously this is still a few days out, but how convenient would it be to have severe weather right next to Denver on the starting days? We'll have to track this as Saturday approaches to see if severe weather is actually in the cards for areas east of Denver during the beginning of my trip.

5 days until storm chasing begins!